Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Apr 28 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

As the Trump administration's 25% tariffs on the automotive sector cause car prices to rise, many would-be customers will likely rethink their decision to replace their aging car. According to a new report from Reuters, between the United States and Canada, the resulting penny-pinching could lead to 1.8 million fewer annual car sales this year. According to Reuters, the data was sourced from a forecast with the Detroit-area automotive advisory firm Telemetry. In Telemetry's forecast, the firm predicted that if the current 25% tariffs remain in effect until 2035, annual sales of passenger vehicles in the U.S. and Canada would fall by seven million units. That figure is in contrast with a separate forecast of the 24.6 million sales in a scenario without trade conflicts. | Car and Driver

U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to spare carmakers from some of his most onerous tariffs, in another trade war climbdown following intense lobbying by industry executives over recent weeks. The move would exempt car parts from the tariffs that Trump is imposing on imports from China to counter its role in fentanyl chemical exports, as well from those levied on steel and aluminium — a “destacking” of the duties, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. The exemptions would leave in place a 25% tariff Trump imposed on all imports of foreign-made cars. A separate 25% levy on parts would also remain and is due to take effect from May 3. Although Washington has already shielded autos from the “reciprocal” tariffs announced on major trading partners, U.S. auto companies have in recent weeks pushed for further exemptions. The concessions would mark an initial win for the auto sector and another retreat by Trump on his most aggressive tariffs amid concerns that they would push up U.S. car prices, disrupt supply chains and cause job losses. | Financial Times ($)

Logistics experts are warning that cargo volumes at U.S. ports are undergoing a precipitous drop. This trend is most apparent in Los Angeles, home to the nation’s busiest port, and one that is first to feel any drop-off from Asian shipping. The drop in container shipping is the latest sign the White House’s trade war is having a real effect on the U.S. economy, and one sizable group of workers is poised to feel the impact first: long-haul truckers. | Fortune ($)

The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) has filed a lawsuit against Volkswagen Group and Scout Motors over the upstart brand’s plans to sell directly to consumers. The lawsuit says Scout’s direct-to-consumer model violates a California law that was amended and took effect Jan. 1, 2024. The dealer association considers Scout, wholly owned by Volkswagen AG, to be an affiliate brand of VW. The amended law requires affiliated brands to use franchises to sell and service vehicles, the lawsuit says. “Volkswagen can’t pick and choose which vehicles to sell on its own or through its franchised dealer network, reserving the most profitable or desirable vehicles for itself,” California New Car Dealers Association President Brian Maas said in an April 22 statement. “Illegal competition will harm not only dealers but also the communities and car buyers that they serve.” | Automotive News ($)

Tesla said Tuesday that its profits fell 71% in the first three months of the year, which could increase the pressure on Elon Musk, the automaker’s chief executive, to curtail his work for President Trump and spend more time managing the company. Tesla sales have been slumping because of intense competition from Chinese carmakers like BYD, a lack of new models and Mr. Musk’s support of far-right causes, which has turned off some liberals and centrists from buying Tesla vehicles. Tesla remains the most valuable automaker in the world as measured by its stock price, and it sells far more electric vehicles in the United States than any other company. But its shares have lost about half their value since mid-December as investors have grown more pessimistic about the company’s prospects and concerned about Mr. Musk’s role in the Trump administration. | The New York Times ($)

Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said Elon Musk should step back from his controversial work at the Department of Government Efficiency and re-focus his attention on Tesla, adding the electric-vehicle maker faces a “code red” moment as it prepares to report first-quarter earnings Tuesday. “Musk needs to leave the government, take a major step back on DOGE, and get back to being CEO of Tesla full-time,” Ives wrote in a report to clients Sunday. “Tesla is Musk and Musk is Tesla....and anyone that thinks the brand damage Musk has inflicted is not a real thing, spend some time speaking to car buyers in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. You will think differently after those discussions.” Two weeks ago, Ives slashed his price target for Tesla’s stock by 43 percent, citing a brand crisis created by Musk and President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Ives’ biggest concern has been the potential for Tesla to get caught up in the backlash against Trump’s tariff policies in China, where the company generated more than a fifth of its revenue last year. Musk has also become the face of Trump’s efforts to slash the size and scope of the federal government, infuriating progressive consumers who are a key client base for the leading American electric vehicle maker. | Automotive News ($)Tesla’s stockpiles seen from space are way smaller than they were a year ago. That isn’t necessarily a good thing. Tesla isn’t selling as many cars, but it also isn’t making as many. | Sherwood

In the days following Donald Trump’s victory last November, Elon Musk’s multimillion-dollar foray into electoral politics looked like one of the savviest investments of his career. Hopes that the entrepreneur’s political influence would supercharge his businesses pushed Tesla back above $1tn in market value, making the richest man in the world — who spent just over a quarter of a billion dollars on Trump’s campaign — roughly $100bn richer. But, by Musk’s own admission, his allegiance to Trump has instead led to damaging “blowback” for his flagship electric-car maker. “It went from a Cinderella story to Nightmare on Elm Street,” said Daniel Ives, a Wedbush analyst who had initially cheered Musk’s closeness to the White House. Rather than helping Tesla by easing regulations on the rollout of artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles, Musk’s increasingly controversial role as head of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) had caused “massive brand damage”, Ives said. Facing investor pressure, and the prospect of having to explain a 70% drop in first-quarter profits on Tuesday, Musk changed course. He announced that he would step back from Doge starting next month, spending just a day or two a week on government work, and the rest of his time concentrating on his commercial interests. | Financial Times ($)

Some analysts had hoped that, at least in America, a boom in Tesla sales to right-wing consumers would balance out declining sales to left-wing ones. TD Cowen Inc., an investment bank, recently estimated that although Mr Musk’s political activities could cut sales by more than 100,000 vehicles a year in America’s Democrat-leaning counties, they could boost them by twice that in Republican-leaning ones. That type of partisan rebalancing was on display last year as Mr Musk completed his MAGA conversion. The Economist, drawing on figures from S&P Global, suggests that Tesla’s sales shrank in left-leaning cities in 2024 while growing in right-leaning ones. For example, in the San Francisco Bay Area, which favored Kamala Harris in the presidential election by nearly three-to-one, sales fell by more than 16% last year; in Tampa, which favored Mr Trump by a wide margin, they rose by around 18%. Unfortunately for Mr Musk, though, even Republicans now appear to be spurning his EVs. Trends in the used-car market suggest that a growing number of Tesla owners in both blue and red states are putting them up for sale. | The Economist ($)

Traffic fatalities in the U.S. declined below 40,000 for the first time since 2020, according to early estimates by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), issued April 8. The traffic fatality rate for 2024 decreased to 1.20 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled, down from 2023’s reported rate of 1.26 fatalities per 100 million VMT, even as total vehicle miles traveled increased by 1% or about 32.3 billion miles. | Smart Cities Dive

⚡️ EVs

It's a tough time to be in the battery business. LG Energy Solution North American president and chief strategy officer Bob Lee warns that backtracking too much will simply mean that the U.S. and its automotive industry will simply be left behind by new players who figure out how to make this technology cheaper and better. If the U.S. does go down such a path, "We lose the auto industry," said Lee, a longtime technology executive with two decades' experience in the battery space. "If [America] decides not to do EVs, if we decide we're going back to internal combustion, and the rest of the world is moving on to cleaner things, what is the rest of the world going to buy?," he said. "If we're not the ones out there investing and building that next technology, then I think the risk is serious." | Inside EVs

The world’s largest supplier of batteries for electric vehicles has announced a major breakthrough that could have huge ramifications for the auto industry. Chinese manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) said Monday that its latest advances will let it manufacture batteries that are lighter, cheaper, faster to recharge and more resistant to cold — all while providing greater driving range. The company said the technology will allow an EV to charge enough for 320 miles of range, or 520 kilometers, with just five minutes of charging. The technology is still several years away from being publicly available. When it is, it could make electric cars more competitive in price and performance with gasoline-powered models. CATL produces one-third of the world’s electric batteries. It supplies 16 of the world’s biggest automakers, including Tesla and General Motors. | QuartzCaught in the middle of the U.S.-China trade war is a Chiclet-size magnet that is vital to every new electric vehicle on the road. The magnet is made with dysprosium. Atomic number 66. A rare-earth mineral with a silver metallic luster. More than 90% of refined dysprosium comes from China, and it is used in magnets that power everything from medical equipment to EV motors. In its retaliation against U.S. tariffs, China slowed exports of several rare-earth minerals and magnets this month, setting off a panic among U.S. automakers. Analysts estimate that companies have stockpiled enough magnets and rare-earth minerals to last them until the end of May. Nearly 900,000 EVs were built in the U.S. last year, according to U.S. government data and the research firm Motor Intelligence. Already, prices for these elements are skyrocketing. The price of terbium, another rare-earth mineral used in magnets, rose 25% this month, said Neha Mukherjee, industry analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

🇨🇳 China

China is leapfrogging the United States with the availability of more advanced, cheaper electric vehicles, while President Donald Trump is cutting subsidies and making other moves that could leave the U.S. behind. The president’s antipathy toward plug-ins, combined with the U.S. domestic auto industry’s slow rollout of new clean-energy vehicles, is frustrating U.S. motorists who hunger for clean transportation. The same U.S. auto companies that for years complained vocally about aggressive government actions aimed at speeding the transition to EVs now worry damage from federal abandonment of the transition will be long-lasting. It all puts an industry crucial to the U.S. economy in a precarious place, with analysts warning there is only so long U.S. auto giants can rely on tariffs to wall consumers off from Chinese offerings. Electric vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, now account for 19% of all cars sold worldwide, up from just 4% five years ago. Chinese models account for 17 of the 20 top-selling plug-ins globally, according to CleanTechnica. The only U.S. company that ranks on that list is Tesla, and it is fast losing market share. Tesla vehicle deliveries plunged 13% the first quarter this year. | The Washington Post ($)

Two of the world’s leading battery developers are locked in a technological race that has brought the charging time for an electric vehicle to just five minutes—about the amount of time it takes to refuel a traditional gasoline-powered car. And, in a twist with geopolitical ramifications, both of the technological leaders are Chinese. It is a show of prowess that underscores just how far China has extended its global dominance over next-generation technologies, in some cases leaving the U.S. years behind. The claimed leap forward on EV batteries is merely the latest technological feat for a country that has stunned Western governments with a string of breakthroughs on artificial intelligence, semiconductors and EVs—a vindication of leader Xi Jinping’s ambitions of turning China into a global technological powerhouse. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

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Autonomy & Robotics

Harry Campbell at The Driverless Digest shares Waymo’s rides per day and market share compared to Uber and Lyft in key markets. | The Driverless Digest

The U.S. Department of Transportation wants to speed the arrival of automated vehicles as part of broader efforts to ensure the nation’s global competitiveness. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy unveiled an automated vehicle framework that intends to coalesce federal support for the industry as it seeks to accelerate deployments from hundreds to tens of thousands of vehicles. The Transportation Department has changed reporting requirements for crashes involving advanced driver-assist and automated driving systems. Manufacturers have distinct reporting timelines depending on the severity of the crash, according to the new standing general order. They have 10 days to report crashes involving a fatality, strike of a vulnerable road user, airbag deployment, hospitalization of someone involved or tow-away of a crash involving a self-driving vehicle. They have longer timelines for reporting less severe crashes. The new time frames are set to take effect June 16. | Automotive News ($)

Tesla has started testing its autonomous ride-hail service with employees in Austin and the Bay Area ahead of the company’s planned robotaxi launch this summer. Tesla’s announcement Wednesday centers on the addition of a “Robotaxi” app that will theoretically be used by non-Tesla owners to hail a vehicle in the fleet. Ferrying employees before a launch is standard procedure in the world of autonomous ride-hail. For example, Waymo uses a similar playbook when it enters a new market. In the lead up to a commercial launch and after weeks of driverless testing, Waymo will open its service to employees before inviting certain members of the public. Tesla plans to launch a robotaxi service in Austin in June, which the company reiterated Tuesday during its first-quarter earnings call. | TechCrunch ($)

Volkswagen of America and Uber on Thursday unveiled an ambitious plan to launch a commercial robotaxi service — using autonomous electric VW ID. BUZZ vehicles — in multiple U.S. cities over the next decade. The companies expect to launch a commercial service in Los Angeles, the first city on the list, by late 2026. VW and Uber didn’t provide details on potential future markets. Initially, the service won’t be driverless. The fleet of autonomous vehicles will have human safety operators behind the wheel before they go driverless in 2027, a VW spokesperson told TechCrunch. That gives Volkswagen ADMT, the autonomous vehicle subsidiary of Volkswagen of America, up to two years to navigate the regulatory landscape in California and gain the permits required to test its autonomous vehicles and eventually operate a commercial service. | TechCrunch ($)Beijing’s E-Town tech hub hosted what it described as the world’s first humanoid half-marathon, with 21 humanoid robots competing alongside thousands of humans. The winning robot, Tiangong Ultra, was built by the government-backed research institute X-Humanoid and finished the race in two hours and 40 minutes. This would not be an impressive time for a human — the race’s winning male runner finished in one hour and two minutes. Tiangong Ultra needed human assistance to win — specifically a human who ran ahead with a signaling device on his back, enabling the robot to imitate his movements. (Most other robots were remote controlled, with human operators running beside them.) Every other robot needed at least three hours to complete the race, and only four robots in total managed to finish ahead of the four-hour cutoff time. Some robots barely made it past the starting line — for example, Shennong tripped a human support runner, then slammed into a fence and shattered. At one point, Little Giant (the shortest competitor, at 30 inches in height), paused as smoke emerged from its head. | TechCrunch ($)

Humanoid robots are at last beginning to leave the lab and enter the workplace. On April 22nd Elon Musk reasserted during an earnings call that he expects “thousands” of Tesla’s Optimus robots to be working in its electric-car factories by the end of the year. He predicted that the firm would be churning out 1m Optimuses by 2030, maybe even 2029. In January he suggested that they would one day be generating more than $10trn in annual sales for Tesla. “Like it’s really bananas,” he gushed. Wall Street is less fruity in its enthusiasm. But only a touch. Goldman Sachs now forecasts that within a decade the market for humanoid robots could be worth $200bn, up from a bull case in 2023 of $150bn. Citi reckons sales may reach $7trn by 2050. Bank of America talks of 3bn humanoids by 2060, or one for every three people, doing everything from handling hazardous materials to caring for the swelling ranks of elderly H. sapiens. All three banks expect China to be at the forefront of the revolution. So does Mr Musk. He told analysts this week that, of course, he expects Tesla to be number one. But, he added, “I’m a little concerned that…ranks two through ten will be Chinese companies.” That concern is justified. Mr Musk knows well what happens when China’s leaders go gaga for an emerging industry. In China and elsewhere Tesla’s electric-vehicle sales are crashing as Chinese challengers, nurtured on state support then left to compete among themselves, offer EVs that are cheaper, better or both. Now the Communist Party is making a similar song and dance about humanoids, both as a matter of technological pride and, given the shriveling working-age population, out of demographic necessity. In January robots devised by Unitree Robotics, a startup from Hangzhou, literally pranced on stage during the Spring Festival Gala, a televised state-sponsored celebration of the Chinese new year. In a speech last month Li Qiang, China’s premier, name-checked Unitree alongside DeepSeek, the national AI superstar. | The Economist ($)

✈️ Aviation & Space

Five years ago, Airbus made a bold bet: The plane maker would launch a zero-emissions, hydrogen-powered aircraft within 15 years that, if successful, would mark the biggest revolution in aviation technology since the jet engine. Now, Airbus is pulling the brakes. The company has cut the project’s budget by a quarter, reallocated staff and sent remaining engineers back to the drawing board, delaying its plans by as much as a decade. Airbus has spent more than $1.7 billion on the project, but over the past year concluded that technical challenges and a slow uptake of hydrogen in the wider economy meant the jet wouldn’t be ready by 2035. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

📚 Investing

Worth watching: Harry Stebbings from 20VC catches up with Ernie Garcia from Carvana. | 20VC

According to Carta data from 14,454 US startup rounds between 2019–2024, the median time between funding rounds has increased significantly as of the end of 2024: 2.2 years from Seed to Series A; 2.5 years from Series A to Series B; 2.4 years from Series B to Series C.

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1966 Porsche 906. | Broad Arrow Auctions

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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📺 In The News

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Thanks to Taylor Justice of KFDM6 for the great coverage of Automotive Ventures portfolio company BusRight! | KFDM6

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we ask the question: Will a 5-minute charge drive massive EV adoption? | CBT News ($)

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🌟 GRIP helps automotive dealerships automate critical data to spot high-probability opportunities fast and convert service visits into sales. | GRIP

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