Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | AUG 11 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

President Trump’s tariff war has inflicted almost $12 billion of losses on global automakers, the biggest hit they have faced since the pandemic. The scary reality: This may be just the beginning. Beyond the continuing cost of tariffs, automakers in the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Europe face years of retooling and supply-chain tweaks to adjust to the new realities. This comes after they spent heavily to reshape factories for electric vehicles. The obvious responses to tariffs are to raise prices and move production to the U.S. But both are hard for carmakers to do quickly, potentially saddling them for years to come. Skeptics say the tariffs will only change the industry at the margins, with global automakers investing in the U.S. because of its healthy consumer economy, not its politics. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

President Trump has claimed that his sweeping tariff regime will reshore American companies and revive manufacturing in the U.S. So far, that hasn’t happened. Economic activity tied to manufacturing has shrunk for most of Trump’s second term. From March to July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey. The Manufacturing PMI last registered at 48, below the 50 score that differentiates growth and decline. The effective average tariff rate on all imported goods now stands at roughly 18% versus 2.3% last year, the highest levels since the 1930s. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

So far, President Trump’s trade polices have had almost no effect on new car prices. But almost no one expects that to last. By the end of the year, if not sooner, tariffs as much as 27.5% on cars and car parts will force sticker prices to rise significantly, analysts say, pushing new vehicle purchases out of the reach of many Americans.Tariffs have already chopped billions of dollars from carmakers’ bottom lines. That is because the companies, fearful of losing sales, have absorbed most of the burden of Mr. Trump’s new duties rather than passing it on to car buyers. The carmakers also haven’t been hit by the full force of tariffs yet. Many dealers and manufacturers stockpiled cars and parts before the tariffs took effect. | The New York Times ($)

It's been four months since President Donald Trump implemented 25% tariffs on all imported vehicles and auto parts, and carmakers have largely been able to offset the extra costs without having to pass it on to consumers — yet. How long that trend can last depends on whom you ask. Terence Lau, dean of the College of Law at Syracuse University and former general counsel for Ford Motor Company's International Trade and Transactions practice group, put it this way: "The Detroit 3 are being squeezed. The tariff on steel and aluminum, as well as on imported vehicles from their foreign subsidiaries, is hurting them deeply." It's partly for that reason that experts predict consumers will pay more for new cars across all auto brands. | Detroit Free Press ($)

Toyota posted a $3.3 billion decline in net income for the first quarter of FY2026 despite higher vehicle sales. The automaker expects that tariffs will impact its operating income by $9.5 billion for the remainder of FY2026. Toyota reported revenue of $82.8 billion in Q1, a YoY increase of $2.8 billion as vehicle sales remained brisk in key markets. The company sold 2.4 million vehicles in Q1 compared to 2.2 million last year, but its YoY net margin declined nearly 39%. The automaker cited several factors for the drop in net income, including tariffs and other market conditions, which are forecast to further impact the company’s bottom line in the upcoming year. | Automotive Dive

Amazon is expanding its online car-shopping platform to include used and certified pre-owned vehicles. The retail giant, which partnered with Hyundai Motor Company to launch its Amazon Autos program, will make used and CPO inventory available through Hyundai dealers to consumers in Los Angeles starting Aug. 4. After a year piloting the program with Amazon employees and select Hyundai dealers in adjacent regions, the retailer launched Amazon Autos at the end of 2024, expanding to 48 cities. Today, the program is in 130 cities. Amazon declined to disclose how many dealers have signed up for the program or how many sales have been initiated through the site. Used-car buyers have a three-day or 100-mile return policy as well as a 30-day or 1,000-mile limited warranty on used and CPO vehicles. That layers on top of Hyundai’s 5-year or 100,000-mile warranty for CPO vehicles, which allows the buyer to use the remaining time or mileage from the initial purchase. Allowing Hyundai dealers to list used inventory allows customers to choose from other brands. The CPO inventory listed will be relegated to Hyundai — for now. | Automotive News ($)

The Trump administration’s war on EVs will allow the auto industry to keep selling big, gas-powered vehicles for the foreseeable future. Detroit is thrilled. U.S. automakers are tearing up the playbooks they created when EVs were in high demand and government regulations forced them to pour resources into developing cleaner, more fuel-efficient engines.“This is a multibillion-dollar opportunity over the next couple of years,” Ford Motor Company Chief Executive Jim Farley said last week in a call with analysts. Ford already is changing its lineup, he said, scaling back EV plans and looking to leverage demand for its big SUVs and commercial vehicles. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Although U.S. tariffs are impacting the North American auto industry, Mexico’s market share of sector-wide imports to the U.S. increased during the first half of the year. According to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis this week, overall U.S. imports of automotive vehicles, parts and engines decreased by US $1.3 billion in June. The decline — attributed to U.S. tariffs implemented earlier this year — affected the Mexican automotive industry, which saw automotive exports to the U.S. fall by 5.5% in June, compared to the same month a year ago. Nonetheless, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, Mexico solidified its position as the top supplier of automotive goods, exporting USD $85.7 billion worth of cars, trucks, buses and autoparts to its northern neighbor during the first six months of the year. | Mexico News Daily

General Motors and Hyundai outlined plans to develop five vehicles together as they seek to lower costs amid growing competition from nimble Chinese rivals, although some analysts questioned whether the plan would work. Four of the vehicles — a compact SUV/car/pickup, and a mid-size pickup — are targeted for launch in Central and South America in 2028 and support both internal combustion and hybrid powertrains. GM and Hyundai did not say where the models would be produced, but said they expected to be rolling out at least 800,000 vehicles a year at full production. The partnership will help GM and Hyundai battle growing competition from Chinese EV manufacturers in Latin America. But some questioned whether it would create meaningful synergies. | Reuters ($)Noise cameras are the new frontier in automated traffic enforcement. Growing numbers of agencies across the U.S., from New York to Hawaii, see them as a way to combat revving engines, blaring stereos, honking horns and earsplitting mufflers—some illegally altered. For police, public officials and residents, the machines partially solve a perennial top complaint, particularly during warmer months in spots like Newport, where throngs flock to the Gilded Age mansions, music festivals and the bustling colonial waterfront. To critics—some who refuse to pay the tickets—the devices are another step toward a surveillance society and can unfairly ensnare drivers simply going about their routines in street-legal vehicles. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Before mass electric vehicles and artificial intelligence, thousands of car fabricators for dozens of brands — from BMW and Mercedes-Benz to Alfa Romeo, Packard, Bentley and Porsche — dedicated their lives to handmade fabrication. They pressed aluminum into fenders ostentatious enough for tycoons, built wooden frames secure enough to hold royalty and twisted wire into wheel spokes so strong they could weather the drive from Peking to Paris. The restoration industry faces years-long waiting lists and a disappearing labor force. The trade has suffered shortages because, as skilled workers retire, they’re not being replaced. Spending thousands of hours in a back room pounding metal or twisting wire isn’t necessarily at the top of the average graduate’s wish list. “Younger kids do not have the same work ethic,” says RM Auto Restoration's Ernie Morreau. The immediate satisfaction normalized by cell phones and social media is antithetical to the know-how required for fabricating, say, the burled walnut dashboard of a pre-war Rolls-Royce. | Bloomberg ($)

The used car market in Kazakhstan has taken an important step towards digitalization, transparency and development. The country's first online used car auction, organized according to the best practices of the USA and Europe, was presented in Almaty, Mycar.kz reports. | NUR.kz

The United States Air Force is looking to buy two Tesla Cybertrucks for "live missile fire testing." It said the Tesla pickups were "likely" to start appearing on the battlefield. It added that they don't "receive the normal extent of damage expected upon major impact." | Business Insider

Michael Dunne from Dunne Insights reports on the dramatic momentum that VINFAST has in their home market of Vietnam. | Dunne Insights

The humble speed hump boasts an illustrious origin story. The concept was the brainchild of Arthur Holly Compton, a Nobel Prize-winning American physicist who became a senior federal science official during World War II. Deeply involved in efforts to create an atomic bomb, Compton is credited with getting Robert Oppenheimer to oversee the Manhattan Project. After the war, Compton became chancellor of Washington University in St. Louis. There, Compton grew exasperated by the drivers who raced along a central campus thoroughfare. In 1953, he took matters into his own hands by devising a series of “ Holly humps ” that would force drivers to slow down. (His original designs are now held at the university’s library.) Compton’s approach has since become a foundational tool for street safety in the U.S. as well is around the world. In Britain, drivers must brake before rolling over a “sleeping policeman”; Norwegians do the same when they encounter a “fartshumper” (yes, really). | Bloomberg ($)

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EVs

Tesla for years had more repeat U.S. customers than any other major automotive brand, but its loyalty has plunged since CEO Elon Musk endorsed President Donald Trump last summer, according to data from research firm S&P Global Mobility shared exclusively with Reuters. The data, which has not been previously reported, shows Tesla’s customer loyalty peaked in June 2024, when 73% of Tesla-owning households in the market for a new car bought another Tesla, according to an S&P analysis of vehicle-registration data in all 50 states. That industry-leading brand loyalty rate started to nosedive in July, that data showed, when Musk endorsed Trump following an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania on the Republican nominee. The rate bottomed out at 49.9% last March, just below the industry average, after Musk launched Trump’s budget-slashing Department of Government Efficiency in January and started firing thousands of government workers. | Reuters ($)

Electric vehicle maker Rivian reported a second-quarter net loss of $1.1 billion on 10,661 vehicles delivered. That works out to a loss of $103k per vehicle sold. | Automotive News ($)Panasonic’s technology head has dismissed the prospect of solid-state batteries for electric cars winning market share from increasingly efficient lithium-ion batteries. Tatsuo Ogawa, group chief technology officer of Panasonic Holdings, said solid-state batteries would only ever be a “niche” product, with applications better suited to drones and power drills than cars. His remarks come after the founder and chief executive of China’s CATL, the world’s biggest battery producer, said solid-state battery commercialization was years away and cast doubt on Toyota’s belief that a breakthrough in the technology would transform the automotive sector. | Financial Times ($)Global shipping company Matson surprised customers with an announcement that, effective immediately, it would suspend transporting battery-powered electric or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles due to the hazardous material classification of their lithium-ion batteries. The ability to ship cars between the mainland of the United States, Hawaii, Guam, and Alaska was an important service both for individuals and car dealers. In a letter sent to customers, the company writes, “Due to increasing concern for the safety of transporting vehicles powered by large lithium-ion batteries, Matson is suspending acceptance of used or new electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles for transport aboard its vessels. Effective immediately, we have ceased accepting new bookings for these shipments to/from all trades.” | The Maritime Executive

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China

U.S. government officials think they are hurting China by banning tech exports. In fact, they are doing the Chinese a big favor. China hawks have broken up a global technology ecosystem in which the Chinese not only bought tens of billions worth of U.S. exports but—along with the rest of the world—adopted American-developed industrial standards, a huge advantage to American suppliers. The hawks have turned the world’s biggest customer for U.S. semiconductors into a viable competitor. | The Free Press

China is limiting the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, delaying production and forcing companies to scour the world for stockpiles of the minerals needed to make everything from bullets to jet fighters. Earlier this year, as U.S.-China trade tensions soared, Beijing tightened the controls it places on the export of rare earths. While Beijing allowed them to start flowing after the Trump administration agreed in June to a series of trade concessions, China has maintained a lock on critical minerals for defense purposes. China supplies around 90% of the world’s rare earths and dominates the production of many other critical minerals. Certain materials needed by the defense industry now go for five or more times what was typical before China’s recent mineral restrictions, according to industry traders. One company said it was recently offered samarium—an element needed to make magnets that can withstand the extreme temperatures of a jet-fighter engine—for 60 times the standard price. That is already driving the cost of defense systems higher, say suppliers and defense executives. The squeeze on critical minerals highlights how dependent the U.S. military is on China for much of its supply chain—giving Beijing leverage at a time of rising tensions between the two powers and heated trade negotiations. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Taiwan is preparing to restrict the import of Chinese-branded vehicles from third countries, following local media reports that BYD is planning to enter the Taiwanese market by shipping cars assembled in Thailand. “Based on considerations of national security, vehicle safety, information security and industrial development, the government will strictly prevent Chinese-branded automobiles from entering the Taiwanese market through various channels,” the Ministry of Economic Affairs (Taiwan) said in a statement Aug. 5. Under current regulations, the import of fully assembled vehicles from China is already prohibited, the statement added. Vehicles assembled in Taiwan using Chinese components must meet a localization threshold to be eligible for sale in the local market, it said. | Automotive News ($)China is urging its electric vehicle industry to stop cutting prices and rein in production amid fears that persistent deflation is imperiling economic growth. In recent months, Chinese officials have talked repeatedly of the need to combat “involution” in sectors suffering from overcapacity, such as EVs, referring to the phenomenon of investing more effort and money for diminishing returns. Xi Jinping has spoken of the problem directly. In an unusually blunt speech this month, China’s president criticised provincial governments for blindly overinvesting in artificial intelligence, in computing power and in new energy vehicles, industries that Beijing has identified as strategic priorities but which are also at risk of overheating. | The Guardian

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Autonomy, Robotics & AI

Here’s a question: Which of Elon Musk’s companies is his most AI-focused business? The answer might seem obvious: xAI, developer of Grok. But it’s not that simple, as a letter from two Tesla directors to company shareholders on Monday demonstrates. The letter, explaining the board’s decision to grant Musk a new stock award valued at $23.7 billion to make up for the much bigger option nullified by the Delaware court, said Tesla was transitioning from electric vehicles “towards becoming a leader in AI, robotics and related services.” It was therefore “imperative” for Tesla to motivate Musk because “the war for AI talent is intensifying” and he is key to “attracting and retaining talent at Tesla.” What the directors didn’t acknowledge was that Musk presumably will look to attract and retain AI talent at xAI just as much as he will at Tesla—perhaps even more. Therein lies the challenge for Tesla’s board in overseeing Musk—his commitment to xAI creates a conflict of interest with his responsibilities to Tesla’s public shareholders that cannot be reconciled, short of a merger of the two companies. Come to think of it, a merger might not be a bad idea, although the reality would be messy. Tesla is a profitable car manufacturer, while xAI is likely a money pit right now, pouring a fortune into developing AI models without a business model. | The Information ($)

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has given Zoox an exemption to demonstrate its custom-built robotaxis on public roads and closed a related investigation into whether the Amazon-owned company had sidestepped federal regulations. The decision, which was announced Wednesday, clears up a long-standing debate over whether Zoox’s custom-built autonomous vehicles complied with federal motor vehicle safety standards, which place requirements on vehicles such as having a steering wheel and pedals. Zoox had argued that it did and announced in July 2022 that it had self-certified; NHTSA balked. The agency opened an investigation in March 2023 to look into the matter, and specifically the process and data that Zoox had used to self-certify. | TechCrunch ($)

U.S. ride-hailing company Lyft will partner with China's Baidu to deploy robotaxis across Europe starting next year, marking the Chinese search engine giant's first foray into the European self-driven taxi sector. The partnership will launch initially in Germany and the United Kingdom, with Baidu’s electric RT6 robotaxis operating on Lyft’s platform pending regulatory approval. The rollout aims to scale to thousands of vehicles across Europe in the coming years, leveraging Lyft’s $200 million acquisition of European mobility app FreeNow, completed on Thursday. The deal gives Lyft access to operations in nine countries and over 180 cities, marking its first expansion outside North America. Under the partnership, Lyft will operate the platform, managing customer services and fleet logistics, while Baidu will supply autonomous vehicles and technical expertise. | Reuters ($)

For about two decades now, virtually any business that exists on the internet, from the smallest mom-and-pop shop with a website to the largest retailers in the world, has had to worry about Google. Search-engine optimization, or SEO, has become a $75 billion industry devoted to improving organic search results. This meant much more than making sure Google could crawl your website. SEO shaped how virtually everything on the web looked and read. It’s why headlines are the way they are (and why a lot of news stories get published at all). It’s why online recipes read the way they read. It’s why e-commerce listings are larded with text intended to catch Google’s algorithmic eye. It’s why so much of the web feels so uncanny, as if it’s written for someone, or something, other than the people browsing it, and one of the reasons why Google itself feels so broken. Then came ChatGPT. Within a few months, Microsoft and Google were teasing search engines that looked and worked more like chatbots; soon after, popular chatbots were integrating features that worked a lot like search. Searchers became chatters, and chatters were given answers, not links. Google started putting AI-generated answers at the top of its search pages and signaled clearly that its core product was about to change even more. For some websites, it was a traffic “apocalypse.” For the entire web, it was the next step in a long process of marginalization. For tens of thousands of SEO gurus, Google whisperers, and marketing professionals who work on and around search — a group of people accustomed to sudden changes at the whims of software giants — it’s been chaos. | Intelligencer ($)

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Connectivity

General Motors continues to expand its digital capabilities with the rollout of the Global B electronic architecture, also known as the Vehicle Intelligence Platform (VIP). This system enables GM vehicles to receive over-the-air (OTA) software updates, delivering convenience, performance enhancements, and in some cases, new features without a trip to the dealership. However, beyond these somewhat obvious benefits, there’s a slightly lesser-known (yet critical) reason owners shouldn’t ignore OTA updates – namely a potential warranty risk. In GM’s official Limited Warranty and Owner Assistance Information booklets for 2025 and 2026 model-year vehicles, the automaker explicitly states that owners are responsible for installing OTA updates within 45 days of their availability. The policy reads: “Damage resulting from failure to install Over-the-Air software updates is not covered.” In short, neglecting updates could leave owners without warranty protection if a related issue arises. | GM Authority

✈️ Aviation & Space

The frequent flyer model is simple: airlines sell miles to card issuers; cardholders earn miles by spending; and those miles are eventually redeemed for travel. Each party benefits. Banks and other financial firms gain loyal customers, travellers enjoy flights and perks, and airlines secure a steady stream of profits. In the quarter from April to June American Express, a credit-card giant, wrote a cheque to Delta Air Lines for roughly $2.1bn—equivalent to the airline’s total operating profit. Citi, a bank, paid American Airlines about $1.4bn and JPMorganChase, another lender, handed some $800m to United Airlines. Such transfers, in turn, allow airlines to lower their fares. When American launched the first mass-market frequent-flyer programme in 1981, the aim was to reward repeat business travellers with free flights and upgrades. The subsequent involvement of card issuers turned these schemes not just into significant sources of revenue, but also useful tools of corporate finance. Aviation is volatile, subject to fluctuations in fuel prices, business cycles and the demand for premium travel. At the same time, airlines must make long-term capital investments in aircraft and infrastructure. Selling miles to issuers helps manage the mismatch; carriers receive cash upfront and deliver the service later. Because they control the rules of redemption, they can steer passengers towards off-peak flights and unsold seats. These days the frequent-flyer schemes of America’s big airlines command valuations in the tens of billions of dollars, sometimes exceeding the equity value of the company itself. During the pandemic, when airlines faced a collapse in travel and a liquidity crunch, they did not pledge aircraft to raise funds; they borrowed against the future cashflows of these programs. | The Economist ($)

In dozens of U.S. cities, the next time you call 911, a drone might show up before an officer does. The technology behind that — “Drone as First Responder,” or DFR — has skyrocketed in popularity among police departments nationwide since the Federal Aviation Administration streamlined the process for agencies to adopt the program this spring. While it could previously take up to a year to get approval, it now often takes just days. Law enforcement and drone industry leaders praise the technology as lifesaving, with the potential to help authorities in situations ranging from missing persons cases to active shooter incidents. But critics worry the programs encourage mass surveillance and violate the public’s privacy. The Washington Post ($)

📚 Investing

Carta looks at startup average ARR (Average Revenue Run-Rate) at their Series A fundraise, for U.S. B2B companies (almost all software startups) by year and quartile. So, for example, the median ARR for a Series A company in 2021 was $1.3 million. This is now nearly $3M at the median last year.

SVB has published their H2 2025 "State of the Markets" report, which contains lots of great information for early-stage startups. | SVB

SaaS Capital has published their latest "The SaaS Capital Index" that tracks the median public SaaS company ARR multiple, defined as market capitalization divided by most-recent-quarter annualized revenue. The resulting value is a rough estimate of how investors view the SaaS sector overall. Movement of the SCI also provides a directional guide to what private companies can expect with valuation multiples, though the private multiples are, all else equal, lower. | SaaS Capital

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1967 Ferrari 275 GTB/4. | Broad Arrow

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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Our portfolio company BusRight is bringing on its first in-house finance leader, a key role as they scale their school transportation platform. The CFO will lead budgeting, forecasting, stakeholder alignment, and drive key financial metrics. | BusRight

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What does the future of mobility mean for today’s collision repair businesses? In the latest episode of The Collision Vision, powered by Autobody News, host Cole Strandberg sits down with Steve Greenfield, CEO of Automotive Ventures. | Autobody News

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we explore how internet search is slowly being replaced by queries into AI chatbots like ChatGPT. The result is a massive disruption to the very foundation of how online content gets discovered. | CBT News ($)

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