Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | AUG 4 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

Steve signed copies of his first book (translated into Russian) at the Astana Motors office in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

The objective of President Trump's tariffs was always to revive U.S. manufacturers and make them stronger than foreign rivals, while shutting out competition from China. The auto industry, the flagship sector of U.S. manufacturing, was to be a major beneficiary. Unveiling 25% tariffs on all imports of foreign-made vehicles in April, Trump promised “a golden age” for America. “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country,” the president declared to auto workers who gathered at the White House to hear him speak. Yet in the time since, the global car industry has emerged as one of the biggest victims of Trump’s trade war — with American companies among the worst hit. The so-called Big Three have forecast in recent weeks a combined $7bn earnings hit from tariffs in 2025 — of which $1.5bn is Stellantis, $2bn is Ford Motor Company and $3.5bn is General Motors. This week Ford, which makes about 80% of the vehicles it sells in the U.S. locally, reported a net loss for the April to June quarter after an $800mn headwind wiped out its profits. In the words of its chief executive Jim Farley, Ford was now “the most American company with a $2bn liability”. | Financial Times ($)

There is an irony in Detroit right now: The automaker most reliant on U.S. manufacturing is among the hardest hit by tariffs.Ford, the second-largest American carmaker, prides itself on making most of its vehicles in the U.S. Some 80% of the cars Ford sells in the U.S. are built there, and it makes more vehicles in the U.S. than any other automaker. But the Dearborn, Mich., company said the Trump administration’s latest trade deals with Japan, the European Union and South Korea put it at a disadvantage with foreign rivals. Those deals now set a 15% tariff rate, which is lower than the 25% auto tariff that went into effect this spring. Ford faces steeper tariffs on many parts as well as higher costs for imported aluminum, which is subject to 50% duties. Ford, one of the industry’s biggest users of aluminum, buys the material from U.S. suppliers who pass on a chunk of their tariff costs. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Tesla's global deliveries just fell 13%, their steepest quarterly drop ever. Revenue is declining, margins are compressing, and cash flow has dried out. TSLA is now down over 30% from its December 2024 peak, while the broader market is hitting new all-time highs. Of course, if you view Tesla purely as an auto business, Q2 results remain very poor. But if your focus is on its bets in energy, AI, and robotics, this quarter likely won’t change your thesis. | App Economy Insights

Upper-income Americans are increasingly falling behind on credit card and auto loan payments, signaling an underlying vulnerability in the U.S. economy as the labor market slows. Delinquencies on such debts from those making at least $150,000 annually have jumped almost 20% over the last two years, faster than for middle- and lower-income borrowers, according to the credit-scoring firm VantageScore®. A recent Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis study found the share of people making late card payments in the highest-income zip codes has risen twice as much over the last year as in the lowest-income ones. | Bloomberg ($)

Edmunds reports that an increasing number of consumers with auto loans have negative equity, meaning they owe more on their vehicle than it’s worth — a lot more. The data showed that 26.6% of trade-ins applied toward a new-vehicle purchase had negative equity, a four-year high. The average amount of these “upside-down loans” was $6,754 in the second quarter of the year, according to Edmunds — up from $6,255 in the same quarter a year ago. Even more alarming is that 23.4% of these drivers owed more than $10,000, and 7.7% more than $15,000. | The Washington Post ($)

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) released a study showing traffic fatality rates remain high in the U.S. while they are down in Canada and other countries. Road fatalities in the U.S. increased 33% to 43,230 from 2011 to 2021, the last year for which comparable data was available, according to the July 31 report. From 2011 to 2020, road fatalities in Canada declined 18% to 1,776. 2020 is the last year for which data was available in Canada. U.S. traffic fatalities fell 3.8% in 2024 to 39,345, according to the latest statistics from National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA, which were not included in the IIHS report. IIHS has announced the 30x30 objective — a vision to reduce U.S. road fatalities 30% by 2030 — and is aiming to rally the safety community around it. The organization said the goal flips the more than 30% increase in road deaths that has occurred in the U.S. in recent years. | Automotive News ($)The all-wheel-drive 1250-hp Corvette ZR1X completed a lap of the full 12.92-mile Nürburgring Nordschleife in 6:49.275. That's enough to take the American manufacturer record away from the Ford Mustang GTD by just under three seconds, or enough to beat the 992.1-generation Porsche 911 GT3 RS by less than a tenth of a second. The run is just five seconds away from the second-fastest car to ever set a timed attempt, the 991.2-generation Porsche 911 GT2 RS with a Manthey Performance kit, and 20 seconds off the overall record set by the limited-run, barely-street-legal AMG One hypercar. | Road & Track

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EVs

Sales of Teslas are plunging. General Motors and other automakers are increasing production of big pickups and sport utility vehicles. Republicans have killed incentives for electric vehicle purchases. Electric vehicles have clearly lost momentum in the United States. And combustion engine cars and trucks are enjoying a renaissance to the dismay of environmentalists who worry about air pollution and greenhouse gases. But there’s reason to believe that electric vehicles will remain a significant part of the U.S. car market and that sales of these models will eventually grow again in the coming months. Electric vehicles from Tesla and some other automakers are less vulnerable to President Trump’s tariffs than many conventional cars because more of their parts are made in the United States. Advocacy groups are conducting marketing campaigns to emphasize the lower fuel costs and other advantages of electric vehicles. And automakers appear to realize that they cannot give up on electric cars if they hope to remain competitive globally. | The New York Times ($)

U.S. states have built less than 400 electric vehicle charging ports through April under $7.5 billion federal infrastructure programs, the U.S. Government Accountability Office said. As of April 2025, 384 charging ports are operating at 68 stations in 16 states, GAO said, saying a joint office overseeing the program "has not defined performance goals with measurable targets and time frames for its activities." In May, California and 15 other states sued the U.S. Department of Transportation, saying the federal government was illegally withholding at least $3 billion awarded to states for building EV charging stations under a 2021 infrastructure law. The Transportation Department under President Donald Trump in February suspended the EV charging program and rescinded approval of state plans pending a review. The GAO noted that Trump wants Congress to rescind $6 billion in unspent EV charging funding. Nationwide, there are about 219,000 publicly available EV charging ports, according to the Energy Department. | Reuters ($)

Development of light vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells continues to shift into reverse as automakers redirect funds to investments that have quicker returns and suppliers exit the business. Environmental groups, regulators, Toyota and other automakers once touted fuel cell passenger cars as a promising zero-emission option. But the market never developed to a commercial scale, limiting sales. One problem is that there aren’t many places drivers can use a fuel cell car. There are only 52 public fueling stations in the U.S., all in California, according to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Most have had supply constraints and charge prices at least two to three times the equivalent amount of gasoline. “It is just not cost-competitive,” said Stephen Tapley, partner in the automotive and industrials practice at AlixPartners. There is a challenge ”in the production and distribution of hydrogen that makes it completely unbearable.” Now automakers are pulling back. | Automotive News ($)

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China

As global supply chains fragment because of rising geopolitical tensions, China is doubling down on a long-term strategy to achieve technological self-reliance in the automotive sector. Central to this ambition is the rapid localization of high-value components, particularly semiconductors, sensors and software, which form the "smart brain" of next-generation vehicles. What began as a defensive move to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers is now evolving into a bold industrial upgrade with global implications. The Chinese auto industry is not merely catching up; it is redefining the game. | China DailyFortune published its Global 500 list, their annual ranking of the world’s largest companies as measured by revenue. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD was up 52 spots to No. 91. BYD has passed Tesla (No. 106) in the electric-car race. | Yahoo!Finance

The best-selling vehicle in China, EV or gas-powered, in the first half of 2025 was not the BYD Seagull or Tesla Model Y. It was actually the GEELY Xingyuan. AKA the “Star Wish,” Geely’s EV topped the sales charts with prices starting under $10,000 in China. BYD’s smallest EV, the Seagull, went back and forth with the Tesla Model Y for the title of most popular electric vehicle in China last year. Through the first half of 2025, there’s a new leader at the top spot. According to Chinese media outlet Yiche, the Geely Geome Xingyuan was the best-selling EV in China through H1 2025, dethroning the BYD Segaull and Tesla Model Y. Geely sold nearly 205,000 Xingyuan models in China through June. The BYD Seagull was second with 174,912 units sold, followed by the Tesla Model Y in third at 171,491. The Geely Xingyuan EV starts at 69,800 yuan in China, or just under $10,000. | Electrek

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Autonomy & Robotics

Lyft is partnering with BENTELER Mobility to launch a self-driving shuttle service. In late 2026, Lyft plans to deploy the company’s all-electric HOLON Urban shuttles in airports and cities around the US, allowing users to book trips from its ride-sharing app. Holon, a subsidiary of Benteler, says its rectangular bus has enough room to fit up to 15 people. With a max speed of 37 MPH, the self-driving shuttle comes equipped with an array of lidar and radar sensors, along with 11 cameras, allowing it to operate with Level 4 autonomy. That means it can drive without human intervention, but isn’t capable of driving under all conditions. It uses autonomous driving technology from Intel Corporation’s Mobileye, which Lyft is also partnering with to launch a fleet of robotaxis next year. | The Verge

Waymo said it plans to launch a robotaxi service next year in Dallas, the latest city to be added to the Alphabet-owned company’s growing commercial footprint that already includes Los Angeles and San Francisco. This time around, Waymo is partnering with Avis Budget Group to manage its fleet of all-electric autonomous Jaguar I-Pace vehicles. Avis will handle general depot operations, including charging and maintaining the vehicles. Users will be able to hail a robotaxi through the Waymo app. Waymo has partnered with other companies before, including Uber in Austin and Atlanta and Moove in Phoenix. Avis is the first rental car company to help Waymo manage its fleet. And it’s a partnership that will likely extend to other cities in the future. | TechCrunch ($)

The Boring Company, Elon Musk’s tunnel-digging company, and Tennessee Governor Bill Lee have announced a plan to build a 10-mile “loop” that will connect Nashville’s downtown and its convention center to the area’s airport. The project will be privately funded by The Boring Company “and its private partners,” according to the Governor’s press release, though those partners are not named. The Boring Company and local officials will now begin a “public process to evaluate potential routes, engage community stakeholders, and finalize plans for the project’s initial 10-mile phase.” Construction won’t begin until the project clears the approvals process. But the governor’s office said the first segment of the loop could be operational as “early as fall of 2026.” | TechCrunch ($)

Elon Musk first hyped The Boring Company nearly a decade ago. He vowed to build a futuristic, ultra-fast underground hyperloop as a revolutionary solution to the world’s “soul-destroying” traffic problems, raising more than $900 million from the likes of Sequoia Capital and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. Since then, the company has started digging just one public project: an underground loop in Las Vegas that ferries conference-goers to and from a convention center and to several hotels. While the city has approved 68 miles of tunnels, Boring has dug about eight miles, and less than four miles are operational. Arguably, its most notable commercial endeavors, in keeping with the company’s tongue-in-cheek name, have been, quite literally, jokes: flamethrowers and a burnt hair-scented perfume. The tunneling venture has either pitched or been selected to carry out more than a half dozen other U.S. municipal projects since 2017, but there’s no evidence that the company has broken any ground outside of Vegas. | Bloomberg ($)

✈️ Aviation & Space

A few years ago, U.S. Space Command was wary of talking about its own offensive capabilities. Now it embraces the idea. “It’s time that we can clearly say that we need space fires, and we need weapon systems. We need orbital interceptors,” said General Whiting in April. “And what do we call these? We call these weapons.” He points to President Trump’s Golden Dome plan for a missile-defence shield, which includes space-based interceptors to destroy enemy missiles. In theory, the same weapons could also target enemy satellites. “Space to space, space to ground, ground to space” would all play a role in achieving the “lethality that is necessary to achieve…deterrence,” says an official. America’s allies are also becoming more open about this. In a defence review published this year, Britain said for the first time that it would develop anti-satellite weapons deployed on Earth and in orbit. America leads a small but tight-knit club of spacefaring allies. In Operation Olympic Defender, Space Command works with six countries—Australia, Britain, Canada, France, Germany and New Zealand—to “deter hostile acts in space”. In April the initiative reached “initial operational capability”, with all seven countries signing a joint campaign plan whose details will be finalised this summer. | The Economist ($)

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1960 Aston Martin DB4GT Zagato Sanction III. | Bonhams Cars

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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Steve sat down with Chip Perry and Danny Zaslavsky at the VINCUE office in Kansas City. | YouTube

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Steve's presentation from the Automotive AI Summit. | Automotive AI Summit

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, Steve was back in Kazakhstan, this time for their first-ever dealership conference. | CBT News ($)

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Steve caught up with Anar Zhanarovna, the President of the Kazakhstan Automobile Union (KAU) for an interview on BUSINESS FM Kazakhstan.

Steve was back in Kazakhstan this week with his very first boss in the auto industry (Brad Hart) as well as his last boss (Chip Perry).

👀 Automotive Ventures Company to Watch

🌟 RockED is the premier people development platform for the automotive industry. | RockED.us

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