Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | DEC 29 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

The price of new cars and trucks in the U.S. has increased 33% since 2020, and consumers are piling on interest as they stretch out loan terms to eight, nine and nearly 10 years. The average price of a new car broke the $50,000 barrier this fall, according to Kelley Blue Book. That is up from less than $38,000 in early 2020 before the pandemic hit. As sticker prices marched higher, so did monthly payments. For a few years, car shoppers were undeterred. Many needed new vehicles after putting off buying during Covid when supply chains were upended and dealer lots were empty. Others, feeling flush, opted for luxury vehicles at much higher price points. Fast forward to November of this year and the average monthly payment for a new car was estimated to be $760, according to J.D. Power, an industry-research firm. The hefty cumulative inflation is starting to weigh on consumers, and now some Americans are falling behind on their car payments. The struggle to keep monthly payments in check is so tough that the typical 48- to 60-month car-loan term has given way to 72-month terms, and longer, industry officials say. In the third quarter, a third of all buyers took out loans that stretched at least six years, or 72 months, according to Experian data. A year ago, 29% of buyers did so. The volume of loans with 85 to 96 months to repay, or up to eight years, rose as well to 1.61% of car buyers through October. Some loans now reach 100 months, or more than eight years, especially for the purchase of larger pickups, Experian data show. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

The destination charges across nearly all automakers have increased at a faster rate for the 2025 model year than during any other time in at least a decade. Within the past year, the Detroit automakers have increased the destination charge across their pickup lineups for GMC, Chevrolet, Ford and Ram brands, from $1,995 in the past to $2,595 for 2026 models. | USA Today

Detroit’s safe space involves selling ever more big, tricked-out vehicles sporting engines without worrying about environmental penalties or interlopers. That is kind of where they are now, shielded by anti-green and pro-protectionist policy. Can it last? Judging by Ford’s and GM’s single-digit earnings multiples, investors regard this happy state as finite — and with good reason. The most dangerous time for an incumbent is when their business is doing well, eclipsing signs of disruption gathering around them. In autos, that takes several forms. China’s automakers are squeezing foreign peers out of their own market and now making inroads everywhere else that lacks sky-high trade barriers. Linked to that, EVs are getting cheaper and better and taking market share in many countries outside the US. Technology is also changing how vehicles get made, sold and used, with batteries, robotics, artificial intelligence and the related field of automated driving at the leading edge. Disruption can be hard to spot in real time, and you can lose a lot of money (and face) if you leap too soon. It takes a lot to upend a century-plus-old industry making products that are deeply embedded in daily life and which turn over at a stately pace of once every two decades. With China in mind, prior panics about Japanese and Korean rivals conquering America eventually subsided as Detroit found a new equilibrium. Similarly, the burgeoning s-curve in US EV sales has rapidly collapsed into more like an ‘A’, as inherent challenges around cost, consumer behavior and charging infrastructure have been compounded by Republicans’ repeal of incentives. | Bloomberg ($)

The all-electric version of the Ford F-150 pickup joins a long list of rivals that were touted as real threats to Elon Musk’s hold on the U.S. EV market. But so far, the Motor City has failed to capture the magic that has made the Model Y sport-utility vehicle the bestselling car in the world—electric or not. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

After years of incredible growth, U.S. EV sales are on track to fall slightly this year. Preliminary data indicate that 230,000 electric cars will be sold in Q4 of 2025, a 46% drop from Q3 and a 37% decline year-over-year. The electric share of the car market dropped to 5.7% in the quarter. Last year, Americans bought a record 1.3 million electric vehicles. Cox Automotive Inc. expects that to fall 2.1% to around 1.275 million in 2025. That would mark the sector's first year-over-year drop in sales since the early days of the modern EV market, when volume dipped by a few thousand units between 2018 and 2019. | Inside EVs

Electric vehicles do catch fire, but they do not catch fire more often than gasoline cars. In fact, across multiple countries and datasets, they burn significantly less frequently. In the United States, vehicle fire statistics overwhelmingly point to internal combustion engine vehicles as the dominant source of risk. Data compiled by U.S. transportation safety agencies and cited by the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) shows that ICE vehicle fires occur at a rate of roughly one every 2 to 3 minutes nationwide. That translates to hundreds of thousands of fires annually, the vast majority involving gasoline or diesel vehicles. Analyses drawing on U.S. sales data and fire incident reports show approximately 25 fires per 100,000 electric vehicles sold, compared with about 1,500 fires per 100,000 gasoline-powered vehicles. | Interesting Engineering

November saw plugin EVs take 98.4% share in Norway, up from 94.9% year on year. BEVs alone took 97.6% share. Overall auto volume was 19,889 units, up some 70% YoY. The Tesla Model Y was the best-selling vehicle in November. | Clean Technica

The estate of the late billionaire Robert Brockman has reached an agreement to pay $750 million in back taxes and penalties, settling a civil suit that stemmed from what the government had called the biggest U.S. tax-fraud case ever filed involving an individual, according to a U.S. Tax Court filing Tuesday. The Internal Revenue Service had been seeking $1.4 billion in the case, a figure that included interest. Counting only back taxes and penalties, it had been seeking $993 million. It isn’t clear from Tuesday’s filing how much interest the estate might have to pay. Brockman, a Texas automotive-software entrepreneur, was indicted in 2020 on tax-fraud charges, accused by the government of using a web of offshore entities to conceal more than $2 billion in income from the IRS. He used encrypted computer servers and fishing-related code names to communicate with those running his offshore empire, the government alleged. Much of the money Brockman allegedly hid stemmed from his investments in private-equity firm Vista Equity Partners, which he helped launch as an early backer of the firm. Vista CEO Robert Smith previously settled his own related tax-evasion case with the government. Brockman, who denied the allegations, died in 2022 at age 81, while awaiting trial on criminal charges stemming from the alleged fraud. A Houston tax lawyer who allegedly advised both Brockman and Smith died by suicide on the eve of his own criminal trial. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Congestion pricing in NYC is working as planned, with a significant drop in pollution and traffic declining by 11% in the tolled zone. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is poised to beat its target of generating $500 million of revenue from the program after expenses. Despite initial concerns, the business impact in the district doesn't appear to be as onerous as some had feared, with a 3.4% increase in visitors and a 6.3% boost in sales-tax revenue. | Bloomberg ($)

Right off a major intersection in Philadelphia’s art district, bus commuters are greeted by an aluminum sign featuring a tall bird, colorful flowers and estimated bus arrival times. The South Philly sign was not installed by the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA). Instead, it is one of several signs placed by local street artists who program digital screens, charge them with solar-powered batteries and carefully examine the ins and outs of sign design. The guerrilla transit signs are meant to make SEPTA more accessible to all, including those without a cellphone to search for arrival times, the artists said. But their other goal is to push SEPTA to move faster on the five-year, $6 million contract it signed with a California company in 2024 to install citywide digital screens. The do-it-yourself project has received positive feedback from the community, with one local reporter dubbing the signs the work of “Bus Stop Banksy,” a moniker the artists embrace. | The Washington Post ($)

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China

The rivalry between western carmakers and their Chinese competitors has sparked an industry-wide race to be the fastest in developing a vehicle without compromising safety. Global car executives said that speed was now essential for survival to keep pace with rapid advances in technology, shifts in consumer tastes and the supply chain upheaval caused by geopolitical disputes. However, others have warned of the challenges of balancing faster development with fundamental safety priorities. | Financial Times ($)

In cities and small towns across China, two seemingly contradictory facts are simultaneously true: China is closing the gap with the U.S. for global technological dominance, and yet big parts of its economy are a mess. Locally pioneered electric cars zip past deserted apartment blocks. Factory robots run by artificial intelligence churn out products that jobless college graduates cannot afford. State technology funds throw billions of dollars at money-losing startups even as the national debt surges to unprecedented levels. The emergence of AI startup DeepSeek AI earlier this year showed China can challenge the U.S. in some of the world’s most competitive technologies. But Beijing’s gains are coming at a steep cost, with the state’s heavy-handedness in directing investments wasting colossal amounts of money. The hundreds of billions of dollars China spends each year on domestic technology also eats away at the money for rural education, reinforcing the social safety net and other programs economists say are needed to put growth on a firmer footing. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Chinese battery dominance has long been a problem for industries like auto manufacturing, but now is increasingly being viewed as a national security threat. Currently, U.S. military forces rely on Chinese supply chains for some 6,000 individual battery components across weapons programs, according to Govini, a defense analytics firm. “The reality is very stark,” Tara Murphy Dougherty, Govini’s chief executive, told a recent gathering of top defense and industry officials in California. “There are foreign parts in 100 percent of our weapon systems and military platforms.” China understands the importance of these batteries. On Oct. 9, amid growing trade disputes, China threatened to limit exports of some of its most advanced lithium-ion technologies, including fundamental components like graphite anodes and cathodes. The Trump administration is facing a dilemma. | The New York Times ($)

More than 1 out of every 3 EVs made this year had a CATL battery inside, according to data from South Korea-based SNE Research—including cars from BMW, Ford, Honda, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla, as well as Chinese brands such as Xiaomi Technology. In May, the company raised $5.3 billion by selling shares in Hong Kong, and its 57-year-old founder, Yuqun “Robin” Zeng, is now one of the 30 wealthiest people on the planet, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, with an estimated fortune of $58.3 billion. But for CATL, as with other companies that come to lead their industries, unique success is creating unique challenges. Growth is slowing in the Chinese EV market, the world’s largest, where more than 50% of new passenger cars sold are either fully electric or plug-in hybrids. BloombergNEF forecasts the country will soon have a surplus of battery manufacturing, with predictable effects on prices. CATL is setting up factories in Europe and Southeast Asia, regions where it hopes to build businesses as successful as the one at home. Zeng has an eye on North America too. But his company has been discouraged from manufacturing in the US by various government policies, and President Donald Trump’s administration has maintained a ban that prevents it from bidding on government contracts—all while gutting measures designed to encourage EV adoption. (Ford Motor Co., which licenses technology from CATL in the US, recently said it would take $19.5 billion in charges related to its money-losing electric operations.) Meanwhile, even in more EV-friendly Europe, governments are growing wary of depending on Chinese companies for batteries and other critical technologies. CATL is therefore treading a fine line, between being perceived as an essential innovator and an ominous threat. | Bloomberg ($)

BYD is closing the gap between gas pumps and EV chargers. A new video shows one of its EVs gaining nearly 250 miles (400 km) of range in just five minutes. “The ultimate solution is to make charging as quick as refueling a gasoline car,” BYD’s CEO, Wang Chuanfu, said after unveiling its new Super e-Platform in March. | Electrek

The world’s first one-piece, low-pressure-cast, all-aluminium large-vehicle frame has been revealed by Hubei Hantek Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (Hantek). It is installed on the BYD Yangwang U8L, a high-end electric SUV launched in September 2025. Conventional all-aluminium frames typically require assembly from dozens of separate components through welding, riveting, or other joining methods. These processes are complex and costly, and joints often become structural weak points, affecting rigidity and safety. After years of research, Hantek overcame multiple technical challenges in low-pressure casting ultra-large, thin-walled structures, including controlling molten-metal filling and achieving gradient solidification across varying thickness sections. The result is a single, integrated aluminium frame that replaces traditional multi-part assemblies. | Car News China

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Autonomy, Robotics & AI

Toyota Autonomous tugs are now live at Tokyo’s airport, combining electric power, self-positioning sensors, and remote guidance in a real-world deployment. | CarScoopsBillions of dollars are flowing into humanoid robot startups, as investors bet that the industry will soon put humanlike machines in warehouses, factories and our living rooms. Many leaders of those companies would like to temper those expectations. For all the recent advances in the field, humanoid robots, they say, have been overhyped and face daunting technical challenges before they move from science experiments to a replacement for human workers. Some analysts and technology executives have begun to predict a looming humanoid robot wave. | The Wall Street Journal ($)