Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Feb 10 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

Announcing Astana Motors' and MyVentures' investment in the Automotive Ventures Mobility Fund II | LINK

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

Ferrari's customization program generated a fifth of Ferrari’s revenues in 2024 and helped boost the company’s profits by 21%. If Ferrari refuses to build your dream, there’s probably an aftermarket company waiting for you with open arms. But, taking this route could get owners in serious trouble. In fact, Ferrari may choose to blacklist buyers who “go too far” in customizing their cars.This policy isn’t entirely new: in 2014, Canadian DJ Deadmau5 received a cease-and-desist letter from Ferrari after posting pictures of a 458 called Purrari that featured a colorful cat-themed wrap and prancing cat emblems. | The DriveWatching a Ferrari F40 drift on a frozen lake seems so wrong. But what better way to celebrate the middle of winter? | Road & Track

Nissan is seeking a new partner as it prepares to end negotiations to form a joint holding company with Honda, people familiar with the matter said. The fresh ally would ideally be from the technology sector and be based in the US, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. Although its sales are slowing globally, North America remains Nissan’s most important market and the wider shift toward electrification and automation is pushing all carmakers to seek alliances with high-tech industries. | Bloomberg ($)

The Taiwan-based manufacturer of iPhones better known as Foxconn has reportedly resumed its hunt for Nissan after the Japanese carmaker’s deal with Honda died. Foxconn had reportedly approached Renault Group last year about buying part of its stake in Nissan. | Automotive News ($)

Nissan's 5.4% market share in 2024 has dropped 1.8 percentage points from five years ago, according to Automotive News Research & Data Center. The answer? Dealer-facing volume-based "stair-step" incentives. NADA has long criticized volume-based incentive schemes — referred to in the industry as stair-step programs — as destructive. They can be a high-stakes gamble for retailers, who often sell vehicles below cost to hit their monthly sales numbers and collect the bonus. Missing the target by even a single vehicle leaves the dealership swallowing losses on each sale. | Automotive News ($)Car insurance rates are expected to continue to rise this year, though at a slower pace. Rates climbed 15% across the country last year and have jumped a cumulative 42% since 2022, according to insurance comparison-shopping website Insurify, which forecasts a 5% rate increase this year to a national average full-coverage rate of $2,435 by year-end. The rate increases, which have moved many consumers to shop around for better terms, are the result of rising car repair costs, inflation, and growing weather risks, such as hurricane flooding and wildfires. | Auto Dealer Today

Tesla registered fewer cars in California in all four quarters of 2024, as sales of its second-most important model plunged 36% for the year. The electric vehicle maker’s sales in by far the biggest EV market in the U.S. fell almost 8% in the fourth quarter and 12% for the year, according to data sourced by the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA). Annual registrations of the Model 3 sedan dropped by more than a third. Tesla’s registrations declined despite the company adding a fifth model — the polarizing Cybertruck — to its lineup last year. While more common business factors also came into play, including changing over the Model 3 sedan early in the year, the company likely lost some business in California as a result of the active role Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk played in the US election. | Bloomberg ($)

President Trump’s application of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, including auto parts, would raise average U.S. vehicle prices by around $3,000 each and could reduce 2025 auto sales by 1 million vehicles, Mexico’s national supplier association warned. The Mexican supplier association, which represents more than 700 factories in Mexico, said the country is the No. 4 parts maker globally. In the 2024 calendar year, the group estimated the value of Mexico-made parts at $125 billion. On its website, the group said $91 billion worth of parts were exported in the January-October period last year and 88% of those exports went to the U.S. | Automotive News ($)Autoliv, the world’s largest supplier of seat belts and airbags, said it will not swallow any extra costs caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and warned that some suppliers may not survive because of the financial hit they will take. Autoliv CFO Fredrik Westin said the Swedish supplier would not cover additional costs created by the tariffs. “In the end, both our customers and the end consumer will have to absorb these additional costs across the value chain,” he told Automotive News Europe on Jan. 31. | Automotive News ($)

Tekion CEO Jay Vijayan believes his company will reach profitability in early 2026, 10 years after the dealership management system upstart made its debut. Tekion has raised more than $650 million in financing since its 2016 launch, including a $200 million round in July 2024 from Dragoneer Investment Group. Its investors include General Motors, BMW i Ventures and Hyundai, and dealership groups such as Serra Automotive. | Automotive News ($)According to the NADA Data: 2024 Mid-Year Report, compiled by the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), the number of dealerships with collision centers has declined slowly but steadily since 2018. In that year, almost 39% of the nearly 17,000 dealerships in the U.S. — or roughly 6,600 stores — operated on-site body shops. By mid-2024, that figure dropped to about 33% — or approximately 5,780 dealerships. A review of 25 years’ worth of NADA data reports shows the peak of dealership collision center ownership was 55%, which occurred in 1989. The low was around 33% in 2010. One factor driving dealerships to stop doing collision repairs is an unprecedented wave of industry consolidation. The so-called Big Five national chains — Caliber Collision, Gerber Collision & Glass, Classic Collision , Crash Champions and Joe Hudson's Collision Center — are snapping up smaller independent shops and dealership collision centers. | Automotive News ($)

Jeep is spamming drivers with extended warranty ads through Uconnect Infotainment. Owners are reporting the pop-up telling them to "purchase peace of mind" keeps reappearing, even when their trucks are past the warranty's mileage limit. | The Drive

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Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Ford has said it’ll reduce overall spending on EVs by at least $12 billion and shift some of those resources to money-making gas-powered models. The company lost $35,000 on every electric vehicle it sold in the third quarter and racked up around $5 billion in losses at its EV unit in 2024. Despite belt-tightening, the losses are expected to be similar this year. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas estimates $4.8 billion in EV losses for 2025. Ford shares have fallen by more than 60% since the company’s market value briefly topped $100 billion in January 2022 as the market cheered on its aggressive EV strategy. | Bloomberg ($)

Ford's EV division (Model e) lost $5.1 billion last year. In the fourth quarter, Ford lost ~$37,000 for each electric vehicle it sold. | ElectrekStates trying to build a network of EV chargers are reeling after the Trump administration abruptly ordered a halt to a $5 billion program to build the chargers on highways nationwide. In a memo released Thursday, the Federal Highway Administration ordered states to halt the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, which President Donald Trump cited as an example of the Green New Deal. So far, states are now split, with some putting their program on pause and at least one planning to continue to fulfill existing contracts. The order, which comes as many states are still working to build out their public chargers supported by $5 billion in grants, could strike a major blow to an industry that has experienced slower-than-expected sales and could lose critical federal tax incentives in coming months. Just 55 charging stations have been built so far, according to data from the analytics firm Paren. | The Washington Post ($)

🇨🇳 China

Stella. Li, Executive Vice President of BYD, was named World Car Person of the Year at the World Car Awards (WCA), following the brand’s widespread successes in 2024. Li is the first woman to win the award in its 21-year run, and her employer is the first Chinese automaker to take an award home. | Autoblog

Michael Dunne notes that China today builds more cars than any other country—three times more than America. China manufactures more electric vehicles and batteries than all other countries combined. And this China juggernaut is no longer staying home. China shipped 6 million vehicles to more than 100 countries last year, blowing past perennial leaders Germany and Japan. How did China's automotive industry go from an automotive pipsqueak to a powerhouse, feared by executives in Detroit, Stuttgart, and Tokyo? Tariffs, it turns out, played a huge role. Not the only role, but a big one. | FortuneChina widened its lead over Japan as the world’s top vehicle exporter last year after toppling its East Asian neighbor for the first time in 2023, according to data released by trade groups in the two countries. Japan’s vehicle exports dropped 4.7% to 4.22 million last year, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (USA) said. Vehicles shipped from China advanced 19% to 5.86 million in 2024, according to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The top 10 markets for China’s vehicle exports in 2024 were Russia, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Australia, the Philippines and Turkey, according to the China Passenger Car Association. | Automotive News ($)

🤖 Autonomy & Robotics

Taxi drivers in London are renowned for their ability to navigate the city’s complex street network relying almost solely on their memory. The rest of us, for the most part, depend on navigation apps. Previous research has shown that acquiring the knowledge bestows cabbies with a bigger volume of gray matter volume in the hippocampus — the part of the brain that deals with memory and spatial navigational skills. More recently, new research also suggests that honing those skills made taxi drivers less likely to develop Alzheimers, a disease marked by the deterioration of the hippocampus. Both approaches get people to their destinations, but a new study looking at how cab drivers plan their routes suggests that human navigators may be more strategic than their artificially intelligent counterparts. | Bloomberg ($)Autonomous vehicle company Cruise is laying off “nearly” 50% of its workforce — cuts that extend to the CEO and several other top executives — as it prepares to shut down operations. What remains of Cruise will move under parent company General Motors as the automaker directs its resources towards improving its hands-free driver assistance system Super Cruise — and eventually rolls out personal autonomous vehicles. | TechCrunch ($)

🚊 Rail

China has revealed a prototype of its next-generation high-speed train, a vehicle it says is on track to be the world’s fastest. The CR450, which was unveiled in Beijing on December 29, had reached test speeds as high as 450 kilometers (281 miles) per hour and an operational speed of 400 kilometers (248.5 miles) per hour, according to China’s Ministry of Transport. Once in commercial service, it could be the fastest high-speed train in the world, surpassing China’s current CR400 model, which debuted in 2017 and operates at 350 kilometers (217 miles) per hour. | CNN Travel

📚 Investing

10-year expected risk and return for select asset classes with efficient frontiers. | PitchBook

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1987 Lamborghini Countach 5000 QV. | Broad Arrow Auctions

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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In The News

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Steve had the honor of co-hosting the morning ASOTU with Paul Daly, who provided a big shout-out to Scott Case and the Recurrent Report! | ASOTU

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Thanks to Olga Tonkonog at Kursiv Media for covering Astana Motors' investment in Automotive Ventures' Mobility Fund II. | Kursiv Media

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we announce Astana Motors' and MyVentures' investment into our new investment fund. | CBT News ($)

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Automotive Ventures portfolio company BusRight is hiring a recruiter. | BusRight

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Automotive Ventures portfolio company EVident Battery is hiring an EV Battery Technician. | Evident Battery

Automotive Ventures and our new partnership with Astana Motors and MyVentures was featured in Forbes Kazakhstan.

Forbes Kazakhstan

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