Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Feb 9 2026 | VIEW ONLINE

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Automotive

The Industrial Revolution ushered in a monumental shift from hand production to machine-operated production powered by steam engines. Decades later, Henry Ford invented the assembly line, dramatically lowering the cost of a Model T and placing car ownership within the reach of average Americans. But Anduril Industries cofounder Palmer Luckey thinks production can go a step further. In a conversation with Andreessen Horowitz partner Chris Dixon at a16z’s Founders Summit, the billionaire predicted AI will make manufacturing so cheap the cost of a car will drop thousands of dollars. “I really do believe that in our lifetimes you’ll be able to go buy something that’s like a Ford Motor Company F-150 for $1,000,” Luckey said. “The cost of extracting and transforming it will go to near zero, and we’re going to compete the margins way down. It’s just not that crazy.” The tech founder predicts producing and recycling vehicles will become so cheap, cars could become seasonal purchases. | Yahoo! Finance

U.S. new-vehicle sales won’t return to the 17 million mark for years amid affordability challenges for buyers, said Patrick Manzi, PhD, National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA)’s chief economist. “We’re looking at the low-16-million-unit range for the next few years for sales,” Manzi said during a NADA Show presentation here Feb 3. Drawing on data from Omdia, S&P Global, the Federal Reserve Board and NADA itself, Manzi predicted the auto industry would sell 16 million vehicles in 2026, down slightly from 16.2 million last year. Dealers would see 16.1 million sales in 2027 and 16.2 million in 2028, Manzi predicted. Back in pre-pandemic 2019, customers bought 17.1 million new vehicles, according to the Automotive News Data Center. (Manzi estimated 17 million in sales that year). It was the final year of a five-year U.S. run of at least 17 million annual sales. “I do not see us getting back to 17 [million] in the next five years,” Manzi said. | Automotive News ($)U.S. light-vehicle sales are expected to remain flat in 2026, but higher costs are likely to hamper dealer profitability, said Thomas King, president of automotive and OEM solutions for J.D. Power. King, speaking Feb. 3 at the J.D. Power Auto Summit, said retailer profits are expected to drop to $25.4 billion in 2026. That’s 12 percent less than the $28.9 billion they collectively earned last year, outperforming expectations amid high tariff costs and the elimination of the federal electric vehicle tax credit. “We will see some contraction,” King said. “The bad news is it’s declining, but in context, it’s still very robust.” J.D. Power forecasters expect automakers to again sell 16.3 million vehicles in 2026, with the split between fleet and retail volume virtually unchanged from last year. Average incentives are projected to rise to $3,500 per vehicle, from $3,100. | Automotive News ($)

If the job of a car executive is to sell cars, it is hard to argue with the result of Hyundai’s José Muñoz. Last year, Hyundai sold about a million vehicles in the U.S.—39% more than when he joined the company in 2019—and more than four million worldwide. Yet Muñoz, the first non-Korean chief executive of the South Korean carmaker, seems to be worried that Hyundai is moving too slowly in an era of tariffs and technological change. He wants to shake up its hierarchical culture, expand into robots and flying cars, and build factories in the U.S. faster. “We’re focusing on accelerating,” he said of the company’s roughly $26 billion plan to invest in the U.S. in an interview. “The sooner the better, so we can enjoy our investments.” | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Carvana is by far the most valuable used-car seller in the US, and it wants to become the Amazon.com of cars. To try to accomplish this Ernie Garcia III, the co-founder, chief executive officer and chairman, did the most American of things: He loaded the company up on debt. It took out $3.5 billion in high-interest loans to buy an auction house named ADESA just as the Covid-19-fueled fever dream in sky-high used-car prices was winding down. The timing was disastrous. Short sellers circled, sensing an opportunity to profit from a falling share price, and Carvana—a pandemic meme stock—suddenly lost 99% of its market value. But investors got over it. The shares reached an all-time high in January, and debt remains a big part of the story. Many of Carvana’s customers—like the company, whose bonds are rated junk—have less-than-stellar credit histories but want to take out a loan, which they do through Carvana. The entire business runs on a cycle of borrowed money. For now, the market is supporting Carvana’s ambitions. Prices for new cars are near record highs, after automakers restricted production to boost profits, which is creating plenty of demand to buy used. Even with an uptick in subprime borrower delinquencies industrywide and the collapse of auto lender Tricolor Holdings LLC, Carvana keeps cranking out loans using its own in-house approval system, and those loans are plenty profitable. (That’s despite the company’s subprime borrowers having even lower credit scores than those of Tricolor, according to research from JPMorganChase. On average, though, Carvana’s customers have higher scores because it originates prime loans too.) | Bloomberg ($)

Moneywise reports that between September 2020 and September 2025, auto insurance premiums increased by more than 64%, while the general inflation rate was 25%. “Meanwhile, insurers have been posting near-record profits,” the article states. “Underwriting profits across property and casualty insurers, which includes home and auto, hit their highest level in almost 20 years in 2024, at nearly $27 billion, according to a S&P Global Market Intelligence report.” According to The Wall Street Journal, United Policyholders (UP) Executive Director Amy Bach stated, “The near-record profits are fueling tremendous anger … among people in every state.” | Repairer Driven News

As Scout Motors barrels toward the launch of vehicle output late next year, opposition and legal challenges over the startup’s retail plans are intensifying. Scout, backed by Volkswagen Group, has made direct-to-consumer sales to U.S. shoppers central to its brand strategy as it prepares to market light trucks with electric or extended-range EV energy system powertrains. The brand scored a major victory in December when it was awarded a dealer license in Colorado, creating more consternation among dealers nationwide. Scout’s retail blueprint and similar plans by Sony Honda Mobility, are expected to be hot topics during the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show in Las Vegas. | Automotive News ($)Stellantis will take €22 billion ($26 billion) in charges after the automaker scaled down electric-vehicle development plans and “reset” its business. As a result of the write-downs, Stellantis now sees a preliminary loss of €19 billion to €21 billion for the second half of 2025 and will not pay a dividend this year, it said Feb. 6. Stellantis shares fell as much as 22 percent in Milan, wiping some €5.2 billion off the company’s market capitalization. The charges significantly exceeded analyst projections. | Automotive News ($)Europe’s struggling automotive suppliers are increasingly pivoting toward the defense sector as a prolonged downturn in car production pressures revenues and margins. Companies including Schaeffler and Valmet are expanding activities linked to military and defense applications, reflecting growing demand tied to rising European security spending. TRUMPF, a supplier of laser systems used in vehicle body, battery, and component production, is also targeting defense growth. The German company plans to develop a counter-drone system capable of neutralizing small airborne objects within seconds with partner Rohde & Schwarz. CEO Nicola Leibinger-Kammüller said the decision was driven by persistent geopolitical uncertainty and stressed that the systems would be used solely for defense. Traditional suppliers looking to benefit from rising military spending have joined the German defense industry association Federation of German Security and Defence Industries e.V. These include steel and aluminum components manufacturer Hirschvogel Group, engineering service provider IAV GmbH, and manufacturing specialists at the Berger Group. The shift comes as Europe’s supplier sector remains under financial strain. After six years of disruption, nearly one in five suppliers is in a precarious financial position, according to Deloitte’s Risk Monitor. | Automotive News ($)Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada announced on Thursday a sweeping plan to offer billions of dollars in incentives and tax breaks for auto industry investment designed to help turn Canada into a global leader in electric vehicles. Canada’s plan aligns the country with a shift to electric vehicles that is well underway in Europe and China. But President Trump and Republicans in Congress are doubling down on vehicles powered by fossil fuels, eliminating incentives that encouraged people to buy electric vehicles. Canada is a relatively small market for U.S. automakers, but it is a major supplier of components and finished vehicles. The biggest danger for U.S. automakers may be that they are becoming increasingly isolated from foreign markets and disconnected from technological trends sweeping the rest of the world. Most auto executives expect electric vehicles to eventually become the dominant technology in the United States, even if that shift takes longer than elsewhere. Mr. Carney agreed last month to open a crack in Canada’s exclusion of Chinese-made electric vehicles through a 100 percent tariff that was introduced to match a similar U.S. measure. Canada will allow a small number of Chinese E.V.’s into the Canadian market at a low tariff rate. The announcement of the Chinese deal was followed by an agreement between Canada and South Korea that may lead to Korean automakers building Canadian factories for vehicles and batteries. Expanding the presence of Asian companies in Canada could ultimately hurt U.S. companies at a time when they are already losing ground in other parts of the world. | The New York Times ($)Ford is betting its electric future on the "Universal Electric Vehicle Platform," a new way of making cars that debuts in a $30,000 midsize pickup truck. It's an ambitious price tag and an appealing proposition, but Ford has shared very little about what that truck will be or look like. On Thursday, CEO Jim Farley gave a brief update on the project's progress on social media. That included a bit more on how exactly the company plans to radically simplify manufacturing and reduce the number of parts needed to build a car. "Ford will use large unicastings for the first time on the Universal EV Platform," he said. "The radically simplified aluminum unicastings condense over 146 parts into two, and enable the assembly tree method at the Louisville Assembly Plant." | Inside EVsAfter years of hype and promises to wipe out the scourge of traffic — but with only a Las Vegas tourist attraction to show for it — Elon Musk’s tunneling startup says it’s set to begin digging its first full-fledged transit corridor underneath Nashville. There’s just one catch: City officials, as well as people with more experience building tunnels, think it’s a very bad idea. “If it happens,” Nashville Mayor Freddie O’Connell said in an interview, “the ideal scenario would be: mostly harmless, no one dies.” The Boring Company has dug a launch shaft and assembled a machine to begin drilling two roughly 10-mile tunnels running from a spot near the Tennessee capitol building to the airport. The “Music City Loop” will feature a fleet of chauffeured Teslas taking “thousands of people per hour” between downtown and the airport, easing highway congestion. Boring says the system will be safe and operate with the required state and city permits. | Bloomberg ($)Elon Musk's The Boring Company has signed a partnership agreement with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA), to commence the implementation of a passenger transport tunnel project, branded The Dubai Loop. Under the agreement, implementation of the first phase of the project will commence with the construction of a pilot route extending 4 miles (6.4km), comprising four stations, linking the Dubai International Financial Centre and Dubai Mall. This phase will pave the way for expansion into the full project alignment, which will extend up to 14 miles (22.5km) and include 19 stations, connecting the Dubai World Trade Centre and the financial district with Business Bay. The Dubai Loop project involves the construction of tunnels with a diameter of 12 feet (3.6m), dedicated to vehicle transport. The tunnels will be developed using advanced tunnelling technologies that enable faster delivery, lower construction costs, and reduced impact on existing roads and utilities compared with conventional transport systems. The cost of implementing the first phase of the route is estimated at approximately USD $154 million, with an anticipated delivery period of around one year following the completion of design works and required preparations. The total cost of the full route is estimated at approximately USD $545 million, with an expected implementation period of around three years. | The Boring CompanySophisticated electronics are one of the biggest factors triggering a salvage title. Calibration of advanced driver-assistance system electronics in vehicles built in the 2010s and later accounted for 36 percent of total repair estimates in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to CCC Intelligent Solutions. That compares to 27 percent in the same period a year earlier. The Chicago collision repair industry software firm publishes quarterly reports on insurance claims, repair trends and other collision issues. Pristine Collision Group, a Los Angeles body shop chain, charges $1,200 to $2,500 to calibrate a vehicle’s ADAS components after a wreck. “You run into instances in the newer cars with ADAS systems, parking sensors and camera systems, where a light tap to the bumper can trigger a full-on calibration, which can be costly,” said Pristine COO David Davidian. A calibration doesn’t include any parts. It just resets all systems to factory specifications. Replacing a damaged control module can add thousands to a repair bill. “Distance control sensors used in vehicles with automatic cruise control can cost more than $2,000,” said Dave Herbert, a retired body shop manager who lives in Berkley, Mich., just north of Detroit. “Cameras, airbag sensors and ultrasonic sensors in bumpers can also add thousands to the cost of repairing even minor collisions. Keeping the claim open waiting for parts also raises costs,” he added. Insurance companies declared an estimated 23 percent of claims a total loss last year, an increase from 22 percent in 2024, according to CCC’s latest “Crash Course” report. | Automotive News ($)The E.V. pullback has left a nascent U.S. battery industry with a shrinking market to sell its products. Now, some companies are eyeing a new line of business that could play a critical role in helping renewable energy power the grid — if they can beat Chinese manufacturers on cost. When Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, the legislation included generous incentives aimed at fostering a domestic battery-making supply chain to compete in the global market, which is currently dominated by China. Companies hatched plans to open battery factories in the United States. At the time, many of these investments were focused on making E.V. batteries. But then Republicans reversed many Biden-era tax incentives in last summer’s sweeping domestic policy bill, including for renewable energy, and the market for domestically produced car batteries looked a lot less promising. All of a sudden, there were more E.V. batteries in the U.S. manufacturing pipeline than automakers could really use. So factories began looking for something else to make. At Tesla, batteries are already a big business: In a recent financial disclosure the company revealed that its energy storage business, which includes batteries for homes and businesses as well as solar panel installations, is its most profitable and fastest-growing category. Tesla plans to begin production of large-scale batteries at a new factory in Houston later this year. Right now, there’s room for growth in the domestic grid-scale battery industry, Weis said, though the market is competitive. By 2030, demand for grid-scale batteries is projected to be more than six times what domestic manufacturers produced last year, according to Wood Mackenzie. The question is whether companies like Ford Motor Company and Tesla will be able to move fast enough and efficiently enough to compete with makers like Korea’s LG Energy Solution, which is already producing grid-scale batteries at a factory in Michigan. | The New York Times ($)Down the block of working-class homes, more than a dozen chairs of various shapes and vintages were securing their own rectangle of space: a sturdy dining room chair, an office chair on a swivel, two bar stools, a wrought-iron patio love seat, an orange plastic lawn chair. In Pittsburgh, it’s parking chair season. The city’s sacred civic tradition is simple: If you shovel out a spot, you can save it with a chair. Anyone who moves the chair—no matter how long it’s been there—to park their own car risks an argument, bodily harm or a note on their windshield calling them a “jagoff” (defined by the Oxford English Dictionary as western Pennsylvania slang for “a stupid, irritating or contemptible person”). | The Wall Street Journal ($)

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China

On January 26, 2026, four U.S.-based subsidiaries of Chinese automaker BYD formally filed a lawsuit against the federal government in the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT), challenging a series of tariff executive orders implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). According to court documents obtained by Chinese magazine Caijing, the plaintiffs are BYD’s four core North American operating entities: BYD America LLC (responsible for North American distribution and services), BYD Coach & Bus LLC (commercial electric vehicle manufacturing), BYD Energy LLC (battery operations), and BYD Motors LLC (import and sales). The defendants include the U.S. federal government and key officials from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and the Treasury Department. The lawsuit, filed under case number 26-00847, challenges nine executive orders and their amendments issued since February 2025. These include border tariffs targeting Mexico (Order 14194) and Canada (Order 14193), as well as several China-specific tariffs covering fentanyl (Order 14195), “reciprocal tariffs” (Order 14257), and subsequent retaliatory tariffs (Order 14266). The suit also addresses country-specific tariff orders targeting Brazil (Order 14323) and India (Order 14329) regarding Russian oil transactions. BYD requests that the court rule that the defendants lack statutory authority to impose tariffs under the IEEPA framework and declare all challenged tariff orders invalid as ultra vires actions. The company seeks permanent injunctions against implementing these measures and economic relief, including refunds of all IEEPA tariffs collected from the plaintiffs, plus interest and reasonable litigation costs. | CarNewsChina

Ford and China’s Geely are in discussions about a potential partnership, eight people with knowledge of the ongoing talks said, as the world's carmakers look to share heavier technology and manufacturing costs. The companies are in talks to have Geely use Ford factory space in Europe to produce vehicles for the region, three people familiar with the matter said. They also have discussed the potential framework for shared vehicle technologies, including for automated driving, according to two different people with knowledge of the talks. The talks centered on European manufacturing are more advanced, two people said. Ford sent a delegation to China this week to intensify discussions, which followed meetings last week in Michigan between senior Geely executives and Ford leaders, some of the people said. Talks between Geely and Ford have been underway for months, said five of the sources, who declined to be named because the discussions are private and ongoing. Reuters could not determine the full scope of the talks or if they would result in a deal, including for the U.S. | Reuters ($)

Ford has held talks with electric vehicle maker Xiaomi over a partnership that would pave the way for Chinese carmakers to gain a foothold in the U.S., according to four people familiar with the talks. While the discussions were preliminary, Ford has explored forming a joint venture with Xiaomi to manufacture EVs in the US, according to the people. Ford has also spoken with BYD and other Chinese carmakers about potential collaboration in the US. Such a deal would be controversial in Washington. John Moolenaar, the Republican chair of the House China committee, told the FT that Ford would “be turning its back on American and allied partners, and it will make our country further dependent on China”. Ford said: “This story is completely false. There is no truth to it.” Xiaomi said: “Reports that Xiaomi is discussing a joint venture with Ford Motor Co are false. Xiaomi does not sell its products and services in the United States and is not negotiating to do so.” BYD declined to comment. | Financial Times ($)

The head of the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) said the trade group supports blocking Chinese automakers from entering the U.S. “I will tell you that as an organization, 95 percent of our board, I work for a board of 65 dealers, 95 percent of them agree that the NADA should continue to support the administration’s policies to keep the Chinese OEMs out of this country,” CEO Mike Stanton said Feb. 3 at the Haig Partners Maximizing Value Conference. “It’s bad for our industry, it’s bad for our country, it’s bad for consumers.” President Donald Trump has said that Chinese automakers are welcome to build in the U.S., and several analysts predict sales of Chinese vehicles will happen here eventually. Stanton said that NADA would not interfere with dealers adding Chinese franchises but would still work to prevent the brands from selling in the U.S. “We’re not telling dealers not to take the Chinese franchises,” he said. “We’re gonna support policies, though, to keep them out.” | Automotive News ($)Geely is among the Chinese carmakers that want to sell their cars in the U.S. It’s already sailed past one of two hurdles any of them need to clear to do that: Its Volvo Cars division already has an assembly plant in South Carolina that would let it build its cars domestically. That plant now builds the Volvo EX90 electric SUV and the Polestar 3 that shares its platform; it will add the Volvo XC60 late this year. Few U.S. buyers realize it, but Geely has controlled the Swedish automaker for more than 15 years. Is the Volvo factory a possible foothold for Geely’s future in the U.S.? The challenge for Geely is that any Chinese company selling cars in the U.S. must certify that all software for autonomous driving, and all hardware and software for connectivity and telematics, has not been developed in or controlled by a “country of concern” (China or Russia). Those strictures sit within a Commerce Department rule that took effect in March 2025; it’s intended to protect the country from hostile use of advanced auto technologies by adversary countries. | The VergeCanada's government is working to land a Chinese-Canadian auto plant that will export electric vehicles globally, according to Industry Minister Mélanie Joly. Canadian auto parts firms such as Magna International, Linamar Corporation and Martinrea International could participate in a joint-venture assembly plant in Canada with Chinese EV companies. Canada's goal of attracting Chinese auto investment is part of Prime Minister Mark Carney's broader trade truce with Chinese President Xi Jinping. | Bloomberg ($)As recently as last year, Volkswagen Group still touted its “In China, For China” strategy. But in January, CEO Oliver Blume signaled a change. VW’s new priority, he said, will be making cars in China for the world. “The technologies and products developed in China open up new export opportunities for us — in regions that we previously could not effectively serve from Europe,” Blume told reporters Jan. 29 in Berlin. “This is an important strategic lever for the Volkswagen Group.” Germany’s top manufacturer is hardly alone. Having lost their edge in China’s domestic market, international automakers increasingly seek to turn operations there into global export engines pumping out cars to other markets . Kia Motors and Ford Motor Company have been early leaders. But others, including General Motors, Tesla, Volvo Cars, BMW, Nissan, and Mazda are shipping out of China. While Chinese domestic-brand exports have gained traction in overseas markets, established global players are also exporting locally developed, often electric or electrified vehicles sporting much of China’s latest software technologies. The strategy is colliding head-on with a new wave of tariffs and political scrutiny of Chinese imports in the West. General Motors' recent decision to build a successor to the Buick Envision — the top-selling vehicle imported to the U.S. from China — in Kansas starting in 2028 underscores the sensitivity to American duties the Trump administration has lumped onto Chinese auto imports. | Automotive News ($)China will accelerate development of critical standards for intelligent connected vehicles, as the world's largest auto market pushes to cement technical leadership in next-generation mobility, according to the State Administration for Market Regulation. The push comes as China's vehicle production hit a record high of 34. 5 million units last year, with the national fleet reaching 366 million units. | MLex ($)A relentless selloff in BYD shares is laying bare investor anxiety over the profit outlook for China’s electric-vehicle sector, as cooling domestic demand and surging raw-material costs trigger a brutal reset of expectations. BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares are down this week after disappointing sales data, extending a selloff that has shaved off more than $60 billion in market value since May. The slump reverberated across EV peers, compounding woes for a stock market also grappling with fresh concerns over taxes and business disruption from artificial intelligence. Traders had already braced for weaker EV growth this year on lower government subsidies, reflected in a build-up of bearish bets since November. Still, the pace of demand deterioration has caught many off guard. Adding to the strain, soaring costs for battery materials and memory chips are likely to squeeze automakers’ margins even further. | Automotive News ($)Even as China’s BYD moved ahead of Elon Musk’s Tesla in the world’s EV race in 2025, a lesser-known local rival has been in the rear-view mirror. Leapmotor has produced no-frills, low-cost EVs that have proved a hit with many Chinese consumers. Leveraging its experience from manufacturing security cameras and walkie-talkies, the carmaker has notched sales of nearly 600,000 plug-in hybrids and pure battery EVs last year, double its sales of 2024 and four times that of 2023. Regarded by some industry experts as the next BYD, Leapmotor is following its lead and turning to international markets. With ambitions to eventually sell 4mn cars globally to rank among the world’s top 10 carmakers, the group aims to grow sales by almost 70 per cent this year to 1mn, turbocharged by its partnership with Stellantis to build and sell cars in Europe. | Financial Times ($)Solar power, electric vehicles (EVs) and other clean-energy technologies drove more than a third of the growth in China’s economy in 2025 – and more than 90% of the rise in investment. Clean-energy sectors contributed a record 15.4tn yuan ($2.1tn) in 2025, some 11.4% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) – comparable to the economies of Brazil or Canada. The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures, industry data and analyst reports, shows that China’s clean-energy sectors nearly doubled in real value between 2022-25 and – if they were a country – would now be the 8th-largest economy in the world. | CarbonBriefNew data shows China has added more power capacity across all energy technologies since 2021 than the U.S. has in its history, including 543 gigawatts last year. China will add more than 3.4 terawatts of electricity generation capacity over the next five years, almost six times as much as the U.S., according to BloombergNEF projections. The limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power, according to Elon Musk, who says China's growth in electricity is tremendous and will deliver a major advantage over the U.S. in the race to dominate artificial intelligence. | Bloomberg ($)

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Autonomy & Robotics

Self-driving ridesharing service Waymo said Monday it has raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. The valuation includes the size of the investment, according to an investor in the round. Dragoneer Investment Group, DST Global and Sequoia Capital led the round, it said. Waymo said that Alphabet remains a majority shareholder. Andreessen Horowitz, Tiger Global Management and Bessemer Venture Partners are amongst the investors who participated. Waymo said that in 2025 it more than tripled its annual volume of rides to more than 15 million, with expansion to Tokyo and London this year. | The Information ($)

At the end of the 19th century, the world’s major cities had a problem. The streets were flooded with manure, the unintended consequence of dependence on horses as the major form of transport. In this sea of filth, the infant car industry smelled an opportunity. The Horseless Age, a U.S. car magazine, claimed in 1896 that, with the spread of motorcars, “streets will be cleaner, jams and blockades less likely to occur, and accidents less frequent, for the horse is not so manageable as a mechanical vehicle”. The streets did eventually become cleaner, but not safer. Cars brought huge benefits to society, but also huge challenges. By the end of the 20th century, cars and motorbikes were implicated in more than a million deaths a year around the world, as well as contributing to pollution and suburban sprawl. This story is often told to show that the inevitable march of innovation brings both solutions and problems. However, there was nothing inevitable about U.S. cities becoming dominated by cars. As the historian Peter Norton describes in his book Fighting Traffic, it was a direct result of lobbying by the U.S. car industry. It campaigned for the removal of public transport, the banning of jaywalking and the redesign of streets. The advent of the car in the U.S. is a useful cautionary tale as we consider the introduction of self-driving cars into our lives – especially in the UK. | The GuardianIn a paper entitled “What self-driving companies should learn from drone remote operations” currently under review, Missy Cummings argues that self-driving vehicles— despite improved performance—still struggle in uncertain and dynamic situations. This makes necessary self-driving systems’ reliance on human oversight through remote operations. The point is not whether teleoperations should be deployed. “Remote operations are a safety‑critical capability whose design will strongly influence the near‑term viability of self-driving vehicle deployments,” she argues. Instead of leaving teleoperation’s role ambiguous, AV promoters should be discussing “latency constraints, the importance of human‑centered workstation design, the challenges of managing operator workload, the need for systematic operator training, and the necessity of robust contingency planning.” Referring to her paper, Cummings maintains, “It is important to understand that remote driving and remote assistance are two different things.” However, she added, “They both directly support safety. They are both affected by latency, although remote assistance less so (but it still can be a big problem.” | Junko YoshidaChief Safety Officer at Waymo says the company employs remote vehicle operators in the Philippines. For those who don’t understand how this works, Waymo uses remote operators when the car runs into an issue, like getting stuck or encountering a situation the AI can’t handle on its own. These remote operators aren’t driving the vehicles throughout the day, they only step in when needed. The surprising part of this is that Dr. Peña is admitting that Waymo employs these operators from the Philippines, not from the United States. This raises a few questions. First, why is a U.S.-based autonomous vehicle company outsourcing critical safety operations to workers in another country? Second, what happens if there’s a communication delay, a language barrier, or a technical issue during an emergency situation? Third, are these remote operators being paid U.S. wages, or is Waymo taking advantage of lower labor costs overseas? | InstagramAutonomous vehicles are poised to emerge from proof of concept to rapid commercial scale, revolutionising mobility and urban design, all during 2026. Nowhere is this more apparent than London, where Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo and Baidu, Inc.’s Apollo are both planning to launch driverless ride-hailing services this year. This sets up the city as a direct battleground between technology heavyweights from the U.S. and China, the first such head-to-head competition in the autonomous vehicle market. This battle is a microcosm for the technological arms race underway between the U.S. and China as they vie for supremacy in artificial intelligence. The U.S. leads, bolstered by its massive technology companies with deep pockets and ambitions to commercialize revolutionary technologies. China is close behind, with innovations from companies like DeepSeek AI offering solid AI products at a fraction of the cost of leading models. Europe is conspicuously absent from this torrent of innovation, unable to foster an ecosystem conducive to progress. Paris-based Mistral AI is the only EU company coming close to developing a state-of-the-art AI model, but even it seems to be losing ground, with its best model currently checking in outside of the top 40 on the popular “LMArena” leaderboard of top AI models. While its U.S. peers OpenAI and Anthropic soared to $850bn and $350bn valuations, respectively, last autumn, Mistral raised money in September at a modest $14bn valuation. | Professional Wealth Management

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Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Investors’ fears that new developments in artificial intelligence will supplant software reverberated through the stock market Tuesday, dragging down the shares of companies that develop, license and even invest in code and systems. Traders have questioned whether AI will chip away at the competitive moat built by software makers like Adobe and Salesforce ever since generative AI models hit the market several years ago. Recent advancements in tools such as those from AI developer Anthropic are now prompting more scrutiny. On Tuesday morning, investors homed in on Anthropic’s announcement that it was adding new legal tools to its Cowork assistant meant to help automate a number of legal drafting and research tasks. Shares of Thomson Reuters, LegalZoom, and London Stock Exchange, which all provide some form of legal tools or research databases, all fell more than 12%. By afternoon trading, the downturn had swept through the broader software market. A pair of S&P Global indexes that track software, financial data and exchange stocks lost a combined total of around $300 billion in market value. “If things are advancing as rapidly as we hear from OpenAI and Anthropic, it’s going to be a problem. Investors are starting to go after any of the companies that could be disrupted, which is all kinds of software application names,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

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Aviation & Space

Seventy-five years ago, the idea of harnessing the power of the skies was little more than fantasy spun by futurists like Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov. Elon Musk's mega-merger of his companies xAI and SpaceX this week brings this sci-fi dream a step closer. NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration engineers and technologists have speculated for nearly two decades about moving energy‑hungry computing off the planet. More recently, the idea has captured the attention of Big Tech including Alphabet and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin. The physics made sense, the solar energy was abundant. Still, the challenges seemed insurmountable. Musk, though, known for betting on seemingly far-out theories and getting them to work, may finally be laying the groundwork to make data centers in space a reality. He is armed with the world's busiest satellite launch fleet, an AI startup, and an appetite for infrastructure that stretches from Earth to vacuum. "In the long term, space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale," Musk said on Monday. "To harness even a millionth of our Sun's energy would require over a million times more energy than our civilization currently uses! The only logical solution therefore is to transport these resource-intensive efforts to a location with vast power and space." | Reuters ($)

Elon Musk rammed through the combination of his space company, SpaceX, with his AI startup, xAI, on Monday, merging the shiniest jewel in his business empire with his most money-losing firm. The deal—which valued xAI at $250 billion and SpaceX at $1 trillion, according to people familiar with the situation—comes as xAI battles to catch up to rivals such as OpenAI, Google and Anthropic. The deal shows how quickly the world’s richest man is moving to gain a fundraising advantage in the expensive AI race. On a call with about 100 SpaceX investors Monday afternoon, Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen gave assurances that the deal wouldn’t delay its initial public offering, planned for the summer or fall, said one person on the call and another briefed on it. The company had already been in talks with anchor investors to invest a large chunk of the $50 billion the company hopes to raise in the IPO, Johnsen told them, according to one of the people. The merger with xAI moved quickly, with Musk as the controlling shareholder in both companies. | The Information ($)

Elon Musk is creating a new narrative around SpaceX. As the rocket company prepares to go public, Musk is clearly applying the lessons he has learned at Tesla. There, he long leaned into whatever IT thing was capturing Wall Street’s attention at the time. In doing so, he would help inject further excitement into the carmaker’s prospects. On Monday, Musk announced that SpaceX had acquired another of his private companies, xAI. The mashup values the rocket maker/AI company at $1.25 trillion before an expected IPO, maybe as soon as this summer. Such an offering is likely to raise tens of billions of dollars for giant rockets and data centers in outer space. The merger—dubbed by many as a megadeal—was celebrated by his fans on X, Musk’s social-media company, which he previously merged with xAI and is now, naturally, part of SpaceX. To them, it was an obvious marriage, though maybe not so apparent to others. Beyond raising money and exciting investors, the merger will ostensibly allow Musk to build a really big AI moat. In a best-case scenario, a combined SpaceX/xAI could be like the iPhone, where Apple powerfully controls both the hardware and software. In Musk’s case, he would control the hardware (rockets and orbital data centers) and the software (AI). If he pulls off his orbital data centers and the cost advantages he promises, such an accomplishment could help Musk catch up with the significant head starts Google and Microsoft have in AI with their valuable cloud infrastructures. “SpaceX has acquired xAI to form the most ambitious, vertically-integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth,” Musk wrote in a message to employees. The caveat? This kind of talk rhymes with how Tesla in 2016 described Musk’s plans for merging Tesla with SolarCity. He was the largest individual shareholder of the troubled solar-panel company as well as chairman. | The Wall Street Journal ($)On Monday, Elon Musk announced that his SpaceX had acquired his cash-eating xAI, at a price reported to be $250 billion. SpaceX was already planning to go public, but now xAI will be able to get some of the cash the newly enlarged company will raise. Of course, that’s not how Musk explained the combination. Instead, he framed the merger as a way of getting around the power limitations faced by Earthbound AI data centers. “In the long term, space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale,” he said. That may be true. But if it’s a long-term play, why is he combining xAI and SpaceX now—won’t xAI’s losses burden SpaceX? Indeed, Musk’s statement didn’t even attempt to explain how xAI would help SpaceX launch data centers into space. Let’s not forget that ambition was already expected to be the focus of SpaceX’s IPO pitch. What does xAI bring to the party? The company is an AI model developer, responsible for the Grok models, and sells consumers subscriptions to Grok. It is also trying to sell Grok to businesses, so far not very successfully. It is burning lots of cash, as AI startups do. Oh, and it also owns X, formerly known as Twitter. There’s no question this move is financially motivated. Musk may be the richest man in the world, but he is facing the same financial realities the leaders of other AI startups face: It’s very difficult to compete in AI development with deep-pocketed tech giants like Google and Meta Platforms Ltd, which own cash machines in their advertising businesses. But merging SpaceX with xAI won’t solve his problems. SpaceX doesn’t make anywhere near the money xAI will need in the next few years—it reportedly generated around $15 billion in revenue last year (Meta generated $200 billion). Musk’s other company, Tesla, is much bigger—its 2025 revenues were about $95 billion—but it’s embarking on an intense investment phase already as it pivots into robots and robotaxis. Tesla couldn’t possibly fund xAI and everything it’s already trying to do. | The Information ($)“There is a growing chance that Tesla will eventually be merged in some form into SpaceX/xAI over time,” wrote Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives on Tuesday, adding all three companies are working on AI. “Musk wants to own and control more of the AI ecosystem, and, step by step, the holy grail could be combining SpaceX and Tesla over the next 12 to 18 months in some form to give the connected tissue between both disruptive tech stalwarts looking to lead the AI Revolution.” There is one problem with full convergence, according to Future Fund Active ETF co-founder Gary Black: valuation mismatch. Tesla trades for about 200 times estimated 2026 earnings, while Black estimates SpaceX trades closer to 400 times earnings at its current $800 billion valuation. “The math is pretty straightforward,” says Black. Tesla would need to issue roughly 35% more shares to combine the two companies at existing valuations. “Many existing Tesla institutional shareholders would balk at the uncertainty of 25% profits coming from space travel/communications and sell their [Tesla] shares.” | Barron's ($)Russian troops fighting in Ukraine have reported losing their Starlink satellite internet, according to Russia’s pro-war military bloggers, after the SpaceX tycoon Elon Musk acted on a Ukrainian request to curtail access to his network, which Russian soldiers had been using illicitly. The Starlink cutoff, which the bloggers began noting this week, is the latest twist in a nearly four-year-old war that has been dominated by an unyielding race for technological supremacy and that has redefined what it means to fight a modern conflict. How seriously the change will affect Russia’s forces is not clear. But Russian military bloggers who track the country’s armed forces were reporting frustration and communications problems on the front, where Moscow’s soldiers for years had used smuggled Starlink equipment to gain access to the internet. | The New York Times ($)

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car(s) of the Week": a pair of Camel Lamborghinis: a 1990 Lamborghini-Lotus Type 102 & a 1985 Lamborghini Countach 5000 QV. | Furlonger

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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📰 In The News

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Thanks to John Huetter from Automotive News for the interview at the American Financial Services Association (AFSA) Conference last week in Las Vegas. We caught up to discuss the probability of Chinese automakers entering the U.S. this calendar year, and the implications for different industry participants. | Automotive News ($)

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Thanks to Paige Hodder at Automotive Ventures for covering our panel discussion at the American Financial Services Association (AFSA) Conference last week. | Automotive News ($)

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Very exciting to see Automotive Ventures portfolio company Kinetic featured in The San Francisco Standard. | The San Francisco Standard

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Kinetic Automation opens its third Bay Area location in San Francisco, using robots to repair complex car sensors for body shops and insurers. | San Francisco Business Times ($)

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Thanks to Precision Farming Dealer for covering Brilliant Harvest's fundraising round. Automotive Ventures is excited to participate. | Precision Farming Dealer

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Thanks to James Baggott from Car Dealer Magazine for the coverage of our AI panel at this week's National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA). | Car Dealer Magazine

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Steve caught up with Jim Fitzpatrick at the CBT News booth at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Convention in Las Vegas. | CBT News ($)

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From the stage at the AutoTech Investments breakfast at NADA.

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Steve kicked off the Haig Partners "Maximizing Value Conference" with a message to dealer principals on how to leverage AI to increase their net worth.

Haig Partners

Steve caught up with Yossi Levi from Car Dealership Guy at the WarrCloud booth at NADA.

It was exciting to be at the automotiveMastermind booth to help present a BIG check to Women of Color Automotive Network (WOCAN).

WOCAN

On the AI panel at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Conference in Las Vegas.

You might recognize those two guys in the front row. |

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👀 Automotive Ventures Company to Watch

🌟 Treehouse provides a modern approach to EV charger installation. Fast online quotes, expert electricians who specialize in EVs, and a stress-free process from quote to plug-in. | Treehouse

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