Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Jan 19 2026 | VIEW ONLINE

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Automotive

Cox Automotive reports that while 28% of car buyers go into the transaction thinking they want to do the whole thing online, just 7% end up pulling it off. More than half of buyers conduct their purchases entirely in person. Another consumer survey, published in the fall, found that just over half of car buyers wanted to physically sign paper copies of important documents. In yet another, released in December, 86% of surveyed buyers said they wanted to see a car in person before finalizing their purchase.

| Wired ($)

As consumers contend with higher auto payments, new data from car website Edmunds suggests they may be falling into a cycle of negative equity — where their outstanding auto loan balances are higher than the value of their cars. In the fourth quarter of 2025, 29.3% of trade-ins toward new car purchases were “underwater,” or had negative equity, according to Edmunds. That is the highest share since the first quarter of 2021, when 31.9% of trade-ins had negative equity, according to the data. The average amount owed on trade-ins with negative equity rose to $7,214 — an all-time high, according to Edmunds. More than one-quarter of trade-ins had more than $10,000 in negative equity — also a record high. | CNBC

Detroit allowed the E.V. pioneer Tesla to become the most valuable auto company in the world. But then, the auto industry’s chiefs actually got it right: They accelerated their electric vehicle programs to meet the market and a greener future, ensuring that they would be part of a transformation that’s already happening globally. About 25 percent of new cars sold globally are E.V.s. They now make up more than half of new car sales in China. In Norway, more than 90 percent of new car sales are E.V.s. But American automakers got one key thing wrong: failing to anticipate how the business climate would change under Mr. Trump, whose tariffs raised their manufacturing costs and scrambled a trilateral supply chain built on autos, parts and subassemblies flowing freely among the United States, Canada and Mexico. | The New York Times ($)

U.S. President Donald Trump on Jan. 13 said the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade (USMCA) is “irrelevant” to him and Americans don’t need Canadian products. “It expires very shortly and we could have it or not,” Trump said while touring a Ford Motor Company plant in Michigan. “It wouldn’t matter to me. I think they want it. I don’t really care about it.” | Automotive News ($)

Canada and China have struck an initial trade deal that will slash tariffs on electric vehicles and canola, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Friday, as both nations promised to tear down trade barriers while forging new strategic ties. The first Canadian prime minister to visit China since 2017, Carney is seeking to rebuild ties with his country's second-largest trading partner after the United States following months of diplomatic efforts. Canada will initially allow in up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a tariff of 6.1% on most-favoured-nation terms, Carney said after talks with Chinese leaders including President Xi Jinping. He did not specify a time period. That compares with the 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles imposed by the government of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2024, following similar U.S. penalties. In 2023, China exported 41,678 EVs to Canada. By remaining silent on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, does this imply that there will be no cap or quota for Chinese ICE vehicle imports? | Reuters ($)

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Friday that his country will slash its 100% import tax on Chinese EVs to just 6.1%, paving the way for companies like Geely, BYD, Xiaomi Technology, and others to establish a second foothold in the North American automotive market. Canada is not going all-in on Chinese EVs, though. The country will initially cap annual imports at 49,000 vehicles. That cap will slowly increase to about 70,000 in around five years, according to The Associated Press. It’s a major shift that comes at a time when China is looking to boost EV exports, especially as the European Union weighs lowering its own tariffs on the vehicles. The U.S. remains a holdout on that front, though this week President Trump said he’d be open to Chinese automakers building factories in the U.S. that produce EVs. | TechCrunch ($)

Canadian automotive analysts and executives are disappointed by and skeptical of the federal government’s decision to allow a finite number of electric vehicles made in China to enter Canada at a lower tariff than was previously in place. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Jan. 16 that the Liberal government had reached a deal with Beijing to allow 49,000 of Chinese electric vehicles into the domestic market annually in exchange for dropping duties on canola products and others. Tariffs on China-made EVs will fall to 6.1 percent from 106.1 percent. Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association CEO Brian Kingston, who represents the interests of the Detroit Three automakers in Canada, said he is “deeply disappointed that Canada has taken this action.” “There are significant risks associated with allowing Chinese EVs into the market, including what it means for our much more important relationship with the United States,” he said. | Automotive News ($)New electric vehicle registrations in the U.S. fell 49% in November from a year earlier following the repeal of federal tax credits, hitting legacy brands harder than EV leader Tesla. EV registrations fell to 56,072 vehicles, cutting their share of the light-vehicle market to 4.6%, down 3.7 percentage points from November 2024, S&P Global Mobility said. The data excludes hybrids. | Automotive News ($)

General Motors CEO Mary Barra said GM still believes EVs eventually will take off in the U.S. as charging becomes easier and prices come down, and said GM still sees battery-powered vehicles as “the end game.” “It will take longer without the incentives, but I still think we’ll get there over time,” Barra said of the transition to being fully electric. | Reuters ($)

At the Automotive Press Association conference in Detroit on Monday, General Motors CEO Mary Barra spoke an uncomfortable truth about plug-in hybrids in America. "What we also know today with plug-in hybrids is that most people don't plug them in," she said. "So that's why we're trying to be very thoughtful about what we do from a hybrid and a plug-in hybrid perspective." Barra's comments are perhaps the most stark admission yet—and certainly, from the highest-ranking auto executive—about a truth in the auto industry that is widely known but barely acknowledged. PHEVs have come under fire in recent years, as multiple studies reported that owners broadly do not plug them in. "We find that current PHEVs show electric drive shares much lower than assumed in EPA labeling," the The International Council on Clean Transportation said in 2022. "A consequence of this comparatively low electric drive share is that real-world fuel consumption is 42%–67% higher than EPA-label fuel consumption." In other words, because drivers don't plug the cars in, they're not getting the fullest benefits from their powertrains—lugging around a near-dead battery and using much more fuel than they should. | Inside EVs

Honda positions its electric vehicle partnership with Sony as a bold bid to out-innovate Tesla with cutting-edge entertainment amenities and artificial intelligence-powered mobility. However, the automaker’s franchised dealers are intensifying their opposition to the Sony Honda Mobility venture, labeling the premium Afeela electric vehicle program a costly diversion in a tightening U.S. market and softening EV landscape. Some retailers view the collaboration, established in 2022 to blend Sony’s entertainment technology with Honda’s manufacturing expertise, as an existential threat to their business model and balance sheet. At the core of dealers’ discontent is Sony Honda Mobility’s decision to bypass franchised stores in favor of a direct-sales model. Retailers also fear it is siphoning focus and resources away from Honda’s core automotive business. Bill Feinstein, chairman of the Honda Dealer Advisory Board, described the venture as “poorly conceived from the start” and now “an albatross,” urging Honda to cut its losses to avoid draining resources. “It’s really hard to understand how a premium electric vehicle priced at $90,000-plus makes sense with EV demand softening, high interest rates and intense price competition,” said Feinstein, dealer principal of Planet Honda in Tilton, N.H., and operations vice president of Lithia Motors. | Automotive News ($)

Timing seemingly couldn’t be much worse for Sony Honda Mobility and the launch of its Afeela electric-vehicle brand. Following U.S. policy changes that have triggered an end to federal tax breaks on electric-vehicle purchases and a pullback on infrastructure support, popularity of battery-powered vehicles in the U.S. is waning, with sales last year posting their lowest level of growth in 15 years, according to Omdia Automotive estimates. The sudden reversal in fortune has automakers cutting back on EV and battery production, canceling new-vehicle launches, shifting product development into more viable directions and writing off billions in sunk investment over the past few years. General Motors is writing down $7.1 billion as it restructures away from EVs, while Ford Motor Company has taken a whopping $19.5 billion accounting hit. Meanwhile, rising tariffs, increasing prices and an overall sluggish economy have darkened the outlook for new-vehicle sales overall in the U.S. as 2026 gets underway, with automakers and suppliers girding for what could be a tight squeeze on revenues and profitability. Into this environment steps Sony Honda Mobility. After three years of product development — and relying heavily on an ecosystem of critical technology partners — the company is about to release its first vehicle in the U.S. market: the all-electric Afeela 1 sedan. The vehicle is now in production at Honda of America Mfg., Inc.'s Liberty, Ohio, plant and deliveries of the vehicle are scheduled to begin in California in late 2026. | Wards Auto ($)

BMW is training artificial intelligence agents to help steer one of the automotive industry’s most complex purchasing organizations through an era of geopolitical risk, volatile demand and accelerating regionalization. AI-driven decision support will become a core management tool as the automaker seeks to balance cost, resilience and speed across a global supply chain worth about €90 billion a year. At the center of BMW’s approach is the deployment of four high-performance AI agents dedicated to purchasing. These systems are designed to analyze cross-functional data sets in real time and support decisions on resilience costs, material strategies, flexibility and supplier management. The financial stakes are significant. Martin estimates that unlocking just 1 percent in flexibility costs through AI across BMW’s €90 billion purchasing volume would generate savings of close to €1 billion — potential that BMW believes is currently inaccessible with traditional tools. | Automotive News ($)

Porsche engineering plans to use AI to improve power transistor performance. Intelligent soft switching with AI support promises to reduce switching losses in power transistors by up to 95 percent. Porsche Engineering is already testing the new approach in simulations. | Electrive

How long do electric car batteries last? Geotab analyzed over 22,700 electric vehicles, covering 21 different vehicle models. Here's what they found:Average degradation rate: The average annual electric vehicle degradation rate is 2.3%. Power: High-power DC fast charging (>100kW) is the single largest stressor, leading to degradation rates up to twice that of the low power charging group (3.0% vs 1.5% per year). Climate: Hot climates impose a penalty on battery life, with vehicles operating in hot conditions degrading 0.4% faster per year than those in mild climates. Utilization: The increase in degradation from high daily use is a measurable but worthwhile trade-off for the gains in fleet productivity and ROI.State of charge (SOC): For most EV use, there's no need to worry about avoiding fully charging or emptying the battery. Degradation only speeds up when vehicles spend over 80% of their total time at or near-full or nearly empty charge levels. | Geotab

Prices for memory chips shot up 50% in the last quarter of 2025 and are projected to increase another 40% to 50% by the end of the first quarter of 2026, according to Counterpoint Research, fueled mainly by builders of data centers, who are willing to pay huge premiums. Because AI firms are crowding out other buyers of memory, unexpected consequences are likely to reverberate across countless industries. Effects could include delayed data centers, higher prices for laptops, TVs and other consumer electronics, and possible chip shortages for automakers that would delay vehicle production, in a potential repeat of the pandemic car crisis. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

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China

President Trump reiterated his openness to letting Chinese automakers open factories in the U.S. as companies including Geely eye expansion here. “If they want to come in and build a plant and hire you and hire your friends and your neighbors, that’s great, I love that,” Trump said during remarks at a Jan. 13 meeting of the Detroit Economic Club. “Let China come in, let Japan come in.” | Automotive News ($)

It’s no secret that Chinese automakers want in on the United States. In fact, in a pre-COVID world, several of them were in a race to get sales moving here. But an underdeveloped product line, and then increased geopolitical tensions and tariffs, have shut the door for now. At least, officially, every day, someone asks a BYD rep about American expansion plans, only to hear them admit there are no plans, and we should stop asking about it. However, the Geely Group—already the owner of Volvo and Polestar—has been a little more optimistic. Since at least 2022, Geely has quietly been making appearances in the U.S., with products and important people that aren’t related to Volvo. The brand has been testing the waters, wondering if Americans would truly accept a Chinese car that hasn’t been run through a Scandinavian filter. At this year’s CES, Geely showed up again, this time with the namesake brand and its fast-growing Zeekr marque, showing off a few more vehicles it sells across the globe—oh, and a stealth remark that it could announce a U.S. entry within 24 to 36 months. | Inside EVs

China’s auto exports will expand by as much as 25% to a record of more than 7 million units this year, according to analyst and industry association estimates, as carmakers try to offset collapsing domestic sales of petrol cars and slowing electric vehicle growth. Chinese and foreign carmakers including Volkswagen and Hyundai Motor Company are repurposing their factories towards more lucrative export markets, in a strategic shift that puts pressure on manufacturers outside China. Internal combustion engine (ICE) exports from China are expected to rise 4% to 3.4 million units this year, while electric vehicle shipments will surge more than 50% to 3.7 million units, according to China auto analysts at UBS. The analysts forecast Chinese exports will increase to 9.4 million units by 2030, double the amount shipped in 2024. Overseas markets had “become the pressure valve” for surplus car production in China, said Chris Liu, a Shanghai-based analyst with consultancy Omdia, which has also forecast an increase in Chinese auto exports. “As domestic demand cools, exports are being used to absorb excess ICE manufacturing capacity, rather than shutting down plants,” Liu said. | Financial Times ($)

Volkswagen was overtaken by Geely in sales in China last year, dropping to third place after losing its decade-long dominance in the world’s largest auto market to BYD in 2024, industry data showed. Volkswagen’s two joint ventures in China with state-owned FAW and SAIC Motor held a combined 10.9 percent share in terms of retail sales, down from 12.2 percent in 2024, China Passenger Car Association data showed on Jan. 12. Geely Auto’s share of its home market rose to 11 percent from 7.7 percent in 2025, while BYD’s share fell to 14.7 percent from 16.2 percent. CPCA secretary-general Cui Dongshu said the JVs represent all sales in China by Volkswagen, which remains the top-selling foreign brand in the country and has accelerated initiatives to catch up with Chinese competitors. | Automotive News ($)

CES has always been global, with attendees showing up from over 150 different countries. But 2026 felt like the Chinese Electronics Show. Nine hundred Chinese firms exhibited at this year’s show. Not ninety. Nine hundred. Michael Dunne from Dunne Insights got behind the wheel of products from seven Chinese car brands: Dreame Technology, Geely, Great Wall, Lynk & Co, Wey, Xiaomi, and Zeekr. The competition? Hyundai focused on robotics and industrial automation, but showed no cars. BMW offered test drives of its Neue Klasse via the iX3. Sony Honda Mobility showed the Afeela (again). That was it. I did not see exhibits for GM, Ford, Stellantis, Rivian, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Renault, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, or Subaru. Beyond Chinese brands, the automaker bench was nearly empty. CES is where technology leaders signal what’s coming in the next decade, not how to protect the last one. With Detroit absent, the audience draws its own conclusions. In 2026, China threw down the gauntlet. Detroit did not even show up to contest territory in its own backyard. | Dunne Insghts

Responding to remarks from the Trump Administration about potentially inviting Chinese automakers into the United States, SAFE CEO Avery Ash gave the following statement: “President Trump has made swift and impressive strides to make our nation stronger and more secure by countering China’s dominance of critical mineral, battery, and advanced manufacturing supply chains. Welcoming Chinese automakers to build cars here in the U.S. will reverse these hard-won accomplishments and put Americans at risk. We’ve seen this strategy backfire in Europe and elsewhere—it would have potentially catastrophic impacts on our automotive industry, have ripple effects on our entire defense industrial base, and make every American less secure. We urge the President to stay tough against China and protect American auto manufacturers and workers.” | SAFE

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Connectivity

The Federal Trade Commission said Wednesday it has finalized an order that bans General Motors and its OnStar telematics service from sharing certain consumer data with consumer reporting agencies. The finalized order, which comes a year after the agency reached a proposed settlement with GM, also requires the automaker to be more transparent with its consumers and obtain their explicit consent on certain data collection. The finalized order comes nearly two years after The New York Times showed how GM and OnStar collected, used, and sold drivers’ precise geolocation data and driving behavior to third parties, including data brokers LexisNexis and Verisk. The data was collected through GM’s Smart Driver program, a free feature contained within its connected car apps that tracked and rated driving behaviors and seatbelt use. Data brokers sold this information to insurance providers, which could affect customers’ rates, the NYT reported at the time. GM discontinued the Smart Driver program in April 2024 across all of its brands, citing customer feedback. GM said at the time it unenrolled all customers and ended its third-party telematics relationships with LexisNexis and Verisk. | TechCrunch ($)

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Autonomy, Robotics & AI

Nearly two years ago, Motional was at an autonomous vehicle crossroads. The company, born from a $4 billion joint venture between Hyundai Motor Group and Aptiv, had already missed a deadline to launch a driverless robotaxi service with partner Lyft. It had lost Aptiv as one of its financial backers, prompting Hyundai to step up with another $1 billion investment to keep it going. Several layoffs, including a 40% restructuring cut in May 2024, had whittled the company from its peak of about 1,400 employees to less than 600. Meanwhile, advancements in AI were changing how engineers were developing the technology. Motional was going to have to evolve or die. It paused everything and picked option No. 1. Motional told TechCrunch it has rebooted its robotaxi plans with an AI-first approach to its self-driving system and a promise to launch a commercial driverless service in Las Vegas by the end of 2026. The company has already opened up a robotaxi service — with a human safety operator behind the wheel — to its employees. It plans to offer that service to the public with an unnamed ride-hailing partner later this year. (Motional has existing relationships with Lyft and Uber.) By the end of the year, the human safety operator will be pulled from the robotaxis and a true commercial driverless service will begin, the company said. | TechCrunch ($)

Automotive manufacturing is on the brink of a radical workforce transformation as the industry’s race toward fully automated assembly lines signals a fundamental redefinition of factory work. At least one automaker will achieve 100 percent assembly automation by 2030, according to analysts at Gartner and Warburg Research GmbH. The shift represents more than operational efficiency; it marks an inflection point where artificial intelligence, humanoid robotics and digital manufacturing converge to eliminate nearly all human roles from the assembly process. The implications extend far beyond the factory floor, reshaping everything from vehicle design principles to workforce training pipelines to the economics of auto production. | Automotive News ($)Silicon Valley is filled with all sorts of dreams. But one of those wild-eyed ideas, long debated on subreddits and in hacker houses, is becoming a real-life nightmare: Will the AI boom be the last chance to get rich before artificial intelligence makes money essentially worthless? The argument is that tech companies (and their leaders) will become a class unto their own with infinite wealth. No one else will have the means to generate money for themselves because AI will have taken their jobs and opportunities. In other words, the bridge is about to be raised for those chasing the American dream. And everyone is worried about being left on the wrong side. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Boston Consulting Group (BCG) found that GenAI applications could help automakers realize cumulative cost improvements of up to 25% and productivity gains of 20% to 30% within three years. Beyond these efficiency gains lies the promise of creating adaptive, self-learning systems. | BCG

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Micromobility

E-bike companies have faced sagging demand and escalating costs over the last two years, resulting in bankruptcies and financial struggles for companies like VanMoof and Rad Power Bikes. Despite recent challenges, the e-bike industry's future is considered brighter than the current headlines suggest, with potential to transform urban transportation and reduce emissions. The industry is experiencing consolidation, with companies that offer both affordability and high-quality products likely to survive, and e-bikes remaining a useful and fun option for consumers, with potential to emerge stronger in the future. | Bloomberg ($)

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Aviation & Space

The Florida Department of Transportation is developing an air taxi service that could be operational by the end of this year, offering an alternative to congested roadways. The state’s Advanced Mobility Initiative will focus initially on the I-4 corridor, which the Florida Department of Transportation identifies as the most congested roadway in the state. The Advanced Air Mobility Network will eventually expand statewide, but the first phase covers airports from Tampa through Orlando to Sarasota. | ABC7

The Federal Communications Commission has given SpaceX approval to launch another 7,500 of its second-generation STARLINK satellites, for a total of 15,000 satellites worldwide. Beyond simply allowing SpaceX to launch more satellites and expand its high-speed internet coverage, the FCC says its decision also means Starlink satellites can operate across five frequencies to provide direct-to-cell connectivity outside the United States, along with supplemental coverage in the U.S. | TechCrunch ($)

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1977 Lamborghini Countach LP400 'Periscopio' by Bertone. | RM Sotheby's

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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📰 In The News

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Steve caught up with Kyle and Paul from More Than Cars to debrief on the CES show last week in Las Vegas. | More Than Cars

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Scott Case from Automotive Ventures portfolio company Recurrent was featured in Automotive News. | Automotive News

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we explore how our long, steady progress in reducing vehicle-related deaths has stalled and now reversed. Traffic fatalities are rising again. So what’s going on? | CBT News ($)

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