Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | June 2 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

It’s a strange form of capitalism when a corporate CEO praises a policy that costs her shareholders $5 billion. But that’s the age of government dominance over business we live in, as General Motors CEO Mary Barra proved on Wednesday when she praised President Trump’s tariffs. This month GM announced the tariffs would take $5 billion off its bottom line this year, but Ms. Barra is grateful nonetheless. “For decades now, it has not been a level playing field for us automakers globally, with either tariffs or non-tariff trade barriers,” she said at a Journal event. “So I think tariffs is one tool that the administration can use to level the playing field.” | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Show up for work and do your job — that’s what 12 large pension funds, representing $950 billion in assets, told Tesla CEO Elon Musk in an open letter, where they demanded he work 40 hours a week at the EV giant. The investor letter cited “Tesla’s stock price volatility, declining sales, as well as disconcerting reports regarding the company’s human rights practices, and a plummeting global reputation” as causes for serious concern. It blames Musk’s competing interests for Tesla’s long-term problems, while also pointing fingers at a board “that appears largely uninterested and unwilling to act in the best interest of all Tesla shareholders by demanding Mr. Musk’s full-time attention on Tesla.” They call for “clear time commitments” to be baked into future compensation, starting at a minimum of 40 hours a week. | Quartz

Elon Musk is ready to get obsessed with his companies again. He has a lot to contend with. Tesla is about to launch its first robotaxis, SpaceX is trying to launch a spacecraft to Mars, and xAI is racing to develop human-level artificial intelligence before the competition does it first. “Back to spending 24/7 at work and sleeping in conference/server/factory rooms,” he posted on X Saturday. “I must be super focused on X/xAI and Tesla (plus Starship launch next week).” Musk is known for maniacal focus on whatever is in front of him, and for years has carved up his time to try to advance difficult technologies across his business empire. The companies he is returning to are still wrestling with those kinds of heady challenges, but now must do so with Musk transformed into a deeply polarizing figure. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Used cars haven’t been in such short supply at such high prices since the days of Covid. Dealers had a 43-day supply of used cars at the start of May, the lowest level for this time of year since 2021, according to Cox Automotive Inc. The average price of the 50 bestselling used cars in the U.S. has increased each week over the past two months to nearly $29,000, according to Cox Automotive data. That compares with an average of more than $48,000 for a new car. The pricing and inventory changes are fueled by several factors. Americans are holding on to their vehicles longer, and new-car prices are rising. President Trump’s tariffs are adding to the upward pressure on prices. While tariffs don’t hit used cars directly, they are causing carmakers to raise prices and are reducing supply. Ford Motor Company and Subaru of America have announced price increases. Many automakers have cut back on imported vehicles from Mexico and Canada. North American car factories produced 8% fewer cars and trucks in April compared with a year earlier, mostly as a result of lower output from Mexico, according to a research note from Citi. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Roland Berger and Lazard have published their "Global Automotive Supplier Study 2025. | Roland Berger

⚡️ EVs

More than a century before Tesla rolled out its first cars, the Baker Electric Coupe and the Riker Electric Roadster rumbled down American streets. Battery-powered cars were so popular that, for a time, about a third of New York’s taxis were electric. But those early electric vehicles began to lose ground to a new class of cars, like the Ford Model T, that were cheaper and could more easily be refueled by new oil-based fuels that were becoming available around the country. Bolstered by federal tax incentives in the 1920s, the oil industry boomed — and so did gasoline-powered cars. That history has largely been forgotten, and almost all of the early electric cars have disappeared so completely that most people alive today have never seen one — and many have no idea that they even existed. A few specimens are in museums and private collections, including a fully restored Baker Electric that Jay Leno keeps in his sprawling California garage. Mr. Leno’s ancient electric car has a wooden frame and 36-inch rubber wheels. It looks like a stagecoach, but it is propelled by electric motors and batteries just like a current-day Tesla Model Y or Cadillac Lyriq. It elicited smiles and amazement from people on the streets of Burbank, Calif., when Mr. Leno drove it around town recently. The car may be a novelty, but it is newly relevant because the United States may be poised to repeat history. | The New York Times ($)

As consumers snap up more hybrids, a growing number of automakers are planning to give another permutation of the gasoline-electric powertrain a second chance — the extended-range electric vehicle.Unlike a hybrid such as a Toyota Prius, Ford Escape Hybrid or Jeep Wrangler 4Xe, in an extended-range EV, an electric motor or motors drive the wheels all the time. The gasoline engine’s sole job is to power a generator to create electricity. This type of powertrain isn’t new. Ferdinand Porsche built one more than a century ago. And combustion engines power generators in diesel-electric freight trains, cargo ships and submarines. | Automotive News ($)

After months of stating the intention to remove clean-vehicle tax credits, Republican House members have passed a version of President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" that could potentially decimate electric vehicle sales in America. If passed into law, the bill would cut subsidies for battery manufacturing and remove incentives for purchasing electrified vehicles. Specifically, the bill would phase out the Clean Vehicle Credit, first put in place under President Barack Obama and expanded in the Biden administration through the Inflation Reduction Act. Currently, buyers of hybrid and electric cars can get $7500 off qualified new vehicles with restrictions based on vehicle price and household income. The new bill would officially end the clean-vehicle credit program on December 31, 2026. In practice, though, the credit would be effectively killed for nearly all established automakers at the end of this year. That's because the bill stipulates that for any automaker that has sold more than 200,000 qualifying vehicles, the program ends on December 31, 2025. | Car and Driver

In 2024, nearly 90% of new passenger cars sold in Norway were fully electric. Of the cars sold last month, the EV share was 97%. By comparison, EVs last year accounted for 8% of new car sales in the United States, 13% in the euro zone and 27% in China. What happened” in Norway? The government happened. Norway has one of the world’s most ambitious climate targets. It is aiming to become carbon neutral by 2030, and cutting emissions from road traffic is an important part of that. While the push for EVs has played to people’s green sensibilities, the real driver, arguably, has been economic: Generous government incentives, supported at least indirectly by the country’s fossil fuel profits, have brought down the cost of owning and operating an EV. | The Washington Post ($)

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China

General Motors CEO Mary Barra played down the head-start of Chinese automakers in electric vehicles, whose battery-powered cars and trucks often are cheaper than many of those made in the U.S. The GM CEO said the country’s leading position in the global EV market is mainly the result of government policies. “Not like there’s a technological advantage, per se, but when you have a business being subsidized heavily, it’s going to be harder to compete pricewise,” Barra said. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

For anyone seeking to gauge the success of Beijing’s flagship “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, German automaker Audi's new electric vehicle plant in northern China provides a vivid example. Industrial robots from Chinese-owned companies — one of the key targets of the policy — dominate the production line, starting with an automated press that stamps metal sheets into door panels. Next, more than 800 robots from Chinese-owned KUKA weld pieces into car frames, while another Chinese supplier has automated the wheel installation process. The robots outnumber the humans on each shift. “We weren’t expecting to automate so many processes in China, but the Chinese suppliers’ pricing is very low,” says Tobias Liebeck, Audi’s head of manufacturing engineering at the Changchun plant. China now has more robots per 10,000 workers than Germany. | The Financial Times ($)

Roland Berger has published "Perspectives on Chinese Development Speed & Product Cost" | Roland Berger

China mines some 70% of the world’s rare earths, the 17 metallic elements primarily used in magnets needed for civilian and military technologies. But its 90% share of processing for rare earths mined around the world is what really concerns officials from other countries working to secure their supply. Brazil has the world’s second-largest rare-earth reserves after China, some 21 million tons, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). That represents more than a fifth of known global reserves—and more than 10 times those in the U.S. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

There are 50 EV automakers in China, the most out of any nation globally. However, only three Chinese EV makers are currently profitable: BYD, SERES, and Li Auto. | Autoblog

Goldman Sachs forecasts China's robotaxi market will explode from just $54 million in 2025 to $47 billion by 2035—a staggering 870x growth trajectory. By 2030, they expect 474,000 robotaxis operating across Chinese cities, growing to 1.9 million vehicles by 2035, representing 25% penetration of the entire shared mobility market. This isn't just growth; it's the emergence of an entirely new transportation paradigm. The structural drivers behind this transformation are equally compelling. A critical labor shortage is developing: approximately 4 million taxi and ride-hailing drivers will retire by 2035 as the aging population exits the workforce. | The AV Market Strategist

Goldman Sachs projects that fully autonomous robotaxis in Chinese Tier-1 cities will reach breakeven by 2026, driven by decreasing hardware costs and improving operational efficiency. Their analysis shows robotaxi revenues per vehicle reaching $31,000 annually in Tier-1 cities by 2035—significantly higher than traditional ride-hailing due to longer operating hours and efficient route planning. The path to profitability follows a clear timeline: positive gross margins at the vehicle level by 2026 in Tier-1 cities, 2031 in Tier-2 cities, and 2034 in other markets. The path to profitability reveals a more complex timeline than the headline "breakeven by 2026" suggests. Goldman Sachs expects China's robotaxi industry to achieve unit-level gross margin breakeven by 2026 in Tier-1 cities, but operating-level profitability won't arrive until 2032. | The AV Market Strategist

Adapting to the dual challenge of China’s military and its economy has been a focus of U.S. administrations for years. America is losing ground. The U.S. won World War II in part by producing more of everything—from bullets to food—than its enemies. One California shipyard in 1942 assembled a supply ship in less than five days. America is no longer capable of that kind of manufacturing feat. Today, the country that can make the most of almost everything is China. Its products run the gamut from basic chemicals to advanced machinery. With tensions rising between the U.S. and China, the two countries’ industrial capacity is coming into focus as a key battleground in any conflict. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

The rapid growth of China’s economy over the past few decades has come at a high environmental cost to the planet. Mountains of coal have been burned to power factories, releasing tens of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Still more has been belched out in the production of vast quantities of steel and cement to feed construction. Last year China released over 12bn tonnes of the gas, accounting for over 30% of the world’s total emissions. But there are signs that China’s carbon-dioxide emissions are now decreasing. Over the 12-month period which ended in March, emissions were 1% lower than the preceding 12 months, according to analysis published on May 15th by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a think-tank in Finland. The news has prompted some cautious celebration among environmentalists. China’s carbon-dioxide emissions are so huge that, if the trend continues and they are shown to have actually peaked, that could alter the trajectory of global emissions. (America’s peaked in 2007, Britain’s in the 1970s.) | The Economist ($)

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Autonomy, Robotics & AI

Unless you live in one of the few cities where you can hail a ride from Waymo, which is owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet, it’s almost impossible to appreciate just how quickly their streets have been invaded by autonomous vehicles. Waymo was doing 10,000 paid rides a week in August 2023. By May 2024, that number of trips in cars without a driver was up to 50,000. In August, it hit 100,000. Now it’s already more than 250,000. After pulling ahead in the race for robotaxi supremacy, Waymo has started pulling away. | The Wall Street Journal ($)Drone video shows ~1,873 Jaguar I-Paces outside Waymo / Magna International factory. | Reddit

Last month, Aurora, based in Pittsburgh, became the first company to operate a driverless 18-wheeler on an American highway, ushering in an era that could dramatically change how cargo moves across the United States. Autonomous trucks, proponents say, could solve a knot of problems facing the American shipping industry, which has struggled to recruit drivers for grueling, low-paying long-haul shifts, and which expects major growth in cargo shipment activity in the coming decades, driven by the overwhelming popularity of online shopping. These new trucks won’t need sleep, they won’t speed, and they won’t get road rage. They won’t ride the brakes or make unnecessary lane changes, wasting fuel. And they won’t need to abide by the 11-hour daily driving maximum imposed on long-haul truckers for safety reasons. | The New York Times ($)

Tesla is poised to begin its long-awaited robotaxi service in Austin on June 12, according to a person familiar with the matter, a milestone in Elon Musk’s plan to reshape the company around driverless vehicles and artificial intelligence. The previously unreported date was discussed internally and could still change, said the person, asking not to be identified because the information is private. Musk has previously said the service would begin by the end of June. In preparation for the launch, the company this week operated a test vehicle on public roads in Austin with no one in the driver’s seat for the first time, according to the person. A Tesla engineer was riding in a passenger seat of a Model Y SUV, which drove autonomously with no remote operation, the person said. | Bloomberg ($)

Elon Musk is pushing lawmakers to help clear a path for driverless vehicles, according to people familiar with the matter, part of a broader effort behind the scenes to lobby for a key priority of Tesla. In recent weeks, Musk and people who work for him have been calling members of Congress directly to gather support, said the people, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private. He has also been weighing in on revisions of a bill introduced on May 15 that would begin setting up a basic framework for autonomous vehicles. Options discussed include expediting the bill or presenting a more detailed measure similar to it before Congress’s July 4 recess, one of these people said. | Bloomberg ($)

China, which already has a higher density of robots per human on its factory floors than the likes of the U.S. and Japan, is preparing humanoids to move into increasingly complex roles. EngineAI, Unitree Robotics and their competitors have started trials for everything from sorting garbage and delivering medicines in nursing homes to patrolling the streets alongside police officers and guiding tours through museums. The bots are quietly being tested for military combat, according to local media reports. The country’s startups have caught the attention of Elon Musk, whose Tesla has set its sights on the humanoid market. On an April conference call, the billionaire said he thinks his Optimus robots lead the industry in performance, but China may end up dominating the field. “I’m a little concerned that on the leaderboard, ranks 2 through 10 will be Chinese companies,” he said. Leadership in this field matters because humanoids appear poised to move beyond the realms of sci-fi and curiosity. Citi recently projected the market for the machines and related services will surge to $7 trillion by 2050 when the world could be populated by 648 million human-like bots. | Bloomberg ($)In a pilot program launching Tuesday in Austin, RIVR’s four-wheeled, stair-climbing delivery robot, which CEO and founder Marko Bjelonic describes as “a dog on roller skates,” will ferry packages from Veho’s vans directly to customers’ front doors. | TechCrunch ($)

For over two decades, SEO was the default playbook for visibility online. It spawned an entire industry of keyword stuffers, backlink brokers, content optimizers, and auditing tools, along with the professionals and agencies to operate them. But in 2025, search has been shifting away from traditional browsers toward LLM platforms. With Apple’s announcement that AI-native search engines like Perplexity and Claude will be built into Safari, Google’s distribution chokehold is in question. The foundation of the $80 billion+ SEO market just cracked. A new paradigm is emerging, one driven not by page rank, but by language models. We’re entering Act II of search: Generative Engine Optimization (GEO). | Andreessen Horowitz

🛴 Micromobility

For the past quarter of a century the City of London Corporation, a local authority, has conducted a giant traffic survey. Stationed around central London, more than a hundred observers stand and count what goes by. The latest exercise, conducted last autumn and published in April, contained the most remarkable result yet. Compared with the previous one two years before, the number of cyclists was up by 57%. In central London, the survey shows, bikes have overtaken cars to become the most common vehicle. On current trends, they will outnumber all motor vehicles—cars, buses, motorbikes, vans and lorries—within two years. | The Economist ($)

📚 Investing

Mary Meeker at BOND just released her latest "Trends" report, focused on AI, and it's a must-read. An excerpt from the report: AI is accelerating, touching more domains, and becoming more embedded in how work gets done. Catalyzing this growth is the global availability of easy-to-use multimodal AI tools (like ChatGPT) on pervasive mobile devices, augmented by a steep decline in inference costs and an explosion in model availability. AI is changing how we interact with the world around us. With affordable satellite connectivity expanding access to remote and underserved regions, the next wave of internet users will likely come online through AI-native experiences – skipping traditional app ecosystems and jumping straight into conversational, multimodal agents. Similarly, AI uptake is accelerating in the workplace and has the potential to shape how people spend the one third of their lives at work. As usage patterns evolve and unit costs decline, we may be witnessing the early stages of an internet where intelligence is the default interface – accessible, contextual, and increasingly personal. | BOND

Peter Walker at Carta shares funding data from 1,095 Series A rounds raised by U.S. startups on Carta over the last 12 months. | Carta

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 2015 Volkswagen XL1. The car is one of just 250 XL1s produced.

| Collecting Cars

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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📺 In The News

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Automotive Ventures portfolio company Brilliant Harvest, the leading conversational AI platform for equipment dealers, has signed Rocky Mountain Equipment (RME) the 2nd largest CNH Dealer with 45 locations. | Brilliant Harvest

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At this spring’s Auto Intel Summit, Joe Overby moderated a panel to discuss the buy-sell activity among dealers/dealer groups and investment in automotive technology from both the VC/investment and dealer communities. | Auto Remarketing

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Thanks to Stacey Phillips Ronak from Autobody News for the great summary of Steve's presentation at the Equipment and Tool Institute (ETI) ToolTech conference | Autobody News

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we discuss Tesla's imminent Robotaxi test in Austin, Texas. | CBT News ($)

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