BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | 5 JUNE 2023 | VIEW ONLINE ➡️

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Two-thirds of new cars sold nine years from now will be EVs? That will not happen, but much money will be spent not getting there. There is a history of what has been called “policy beyond capability” - splashy goals proclaimed with fanfare, then quietly unenforced, or amended. (💲Link)Mercedes-Benz would need at least 200 GWH battery capacity or roughly 8 gigafactories worldwide to get close to full electrification. (💲Link)Auto finance companies have less confidence in guidebook EV residual value forecasts and insist on extremely low contract residuals for EV leasing. In China, almost all manufacturers either have considered, are considering, or have already implemented a TVP program: to alleviate consumers’ concerns about their vehicles’ residual values, manufacturers issue a certificate that protects trade-in value, TVP, at various future dates. (💲Link)The either/both problem: The self-driving future will probably be superior to the human-operated present. But even an all-human system might be preferable to a mixed environment in which sometimes the cars are driving and sometimes the humans are. Inside the car, partial automation is worse than either full automation or none, because it requires the driver to stare at the road, hands on the wheel, ready to take over in an emergency. A larger variant of the either/both problem: Roads carrying both computer and human drivers might well be worse than those with all one or all the other. (💲Link)Electric vehicles may not reach cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles until after 2030, Ford CEO Jim Farley says. EVs will continue to be more expensive than their ICE counterparts until the second and third-generation vehicles go into production after 2025. (💲Link)Farley: The industry must focus on reliable, fast-charging infrastructure, not bigger, heavier long-range batteries that can move a vehicle 500 miles. “250-kw batteries are ridiculous,” comparing the size and weight of such battery packs to a Mazda Miata. (Link)Once perfected and available in the mainstream, ultraefficient EVs could eliminate range anxiety - the fear of running out of juice before reaching the next charger - that has prevented many drivers from going electric. They could also reduce the need for charging stops for all but the longest road trips. The tech that makes long-range EVs possible could also be used in vehicles with much more modest range, allowing their batteries - traditionally the most expensive part of an EV - to be much smaller. In turn, this might finally make most EVs cheaper to own and operate than gasoline vehicles. (💲Link)Ford has launched a pilot that will give Uber drivers access to flexible leases on Mustang Mach-E models in three California cities. The pilot program, called Ford Drive, launched Thursday in San Diego, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. (Link)

Pent-up demand supercharged RV sales to their best year ever in 2021, with more than 600,000 new units shipped in North America. As soon as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates last year, though, the wheels came off. Through April of this year, shipments of RVs have collapsed by more than half compared with the same period of 2022. (💲Link)Finland's average electricity price slips into negative territory. The oversupply of virtually emissions-free electricity is mainly due to spring flooding, which is super-charging hydropower production. (Link)For select vehicles that still have radar units installed, Tesla may be unplugging the sensors from customer cars during routine service appointments. (Link)Tesla and its battery partner are poised to receive about $1.8 billion in production tax credits this year under the Inflation Reduction Act, a windfall that far exceeds an estimated $480 million haul for General Motors and LG Energy Solution. Ford won’t begin to reap any benefits from the law’s battery manufacturing credits until 2025. The disparity reflects the design of the law, which gives hefty incentives to battery suppliers and automakers that produce in the US, and, crucially, rewards scale: The more batteries and EVs a company makes stateside, the more money it gets via tax credits. (💲Link)General Motors sees the biggest revenue opportunities from software and services that go beyond what vehicles offer today, rather than charging for features such as heated seats that customers already expect. Software and services represent a major growth opportunity for GM, particularly as vehicles go to their second and third owners, citing examples such as safety and security services, in-vehicle wireless hotspot capability, or vehicle customization. (💲Link)

The International Council on Clean Transportation has published The Global Automaker Rating 2022: a definitive look at how global automakers rate in the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). (Link)

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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🗞️ Did you miss the June Intel Report? Check it out for an overview of our Mobility investment thesis (Link)On this week's Future of Automotive segment on CBT News, we explore how Ford may have "cracked the code" on Features-as-a-Service with their commercial division, and how CEO Jim Farley believes that the Chinese are Ford's main competitor. (Link)📢 Are you a startup working on a solution for the automotive aftermarket? Apply now for the MEMA Aftermarket Startup Challenge (Link)

🌟 C2A Security streamlines security work and data flow for grids, charging stations, and technology across the connected, autonomous, and electric vehicle landscape. C2A provides best-in-class cybersecurity while maximizing focus on product development and streamlined operations. (Link)

🌟 ConnectDER meter adapters install directly between the home’s meter and the meter socket to create a single plug-and-play access point for DER installation, reducing interconnection time from hours to minutes, eliminating components, and reducing the need for premises wiring upgrades. (Link)

✈️ Air Mobility & Space

Boeing has fully acquired eVTOL startup Wisk Aero. The terms of the deal were not disclosed, but Boeing already owned part of Wisk and had committed $450 million in capital back in January. (Link)

⚡ Electrification & Alternative Fuels

ConnectDER, which sells plug-and-play meter collar adapters for EV chargers, solar, and battery storage, just closed a $27 million Series C funding round. ConnectDER makes meter collars installed between the home’s meter and the meter socket to create a single access point for distributed energy resources (DER) installation. This avoids expensive electrical panel upgrades frequently needed in homes to support the additional energy demand of DER products like EV charging, solar panels, heat pumps, and other smart appliances. (Link)EMO.energy, a battery-tech startup, has raised $1.2 million in a Seed funding round and aims to enable mass adoption across EVs and energy storage through its proprietary tech platform ZEN. (Link)India's Ola Electric is planning a stock market listing by the end of 2023 and was valued at $5 billion in its last fundraise in 2022. (Link)🚢 Maritime

Zparq has completed a Seed round and is challenging the limits of marine propulsion by providing the most compact and scalable systems for propeller-driven watercraft. (Link)

🛴 MicromobilityParis-based Loewi, a company that refurbishes electric bikes, announced a €1 million Pre-Seed funding round. Loewi gives used electric bikes a second life while ensuring there is a low-priced market for those looking for a green transport alternative but can’t quite reach the relatively high price tag of a new bike. (Link)

🏎️ Early-stage AutoTech or Mobility founder? We'd love to hear from you.🏁 Interested in investing directly into early-stage AutoTech and Mobility companies? Check out The Automotive Ventures Investment Club (AVIC)✨ Looking for our Dealership AutoTech Company Landscape? View that here.✨ Looking for our Mobility Tech Company Landscape? View that here.🚀 Interested in exploring Automotive Ventures' portfolio companies shown below? Check them out here.