Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Mar 17 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

Thanks to Mark Hollmer at Automotive News for the coverage of Automotive Ventures' new Mobility Fund II. LINK

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

In October 2022, Volkswagen leadership decided to take a leaf out of the Fiat-Ferrari playbook and unleashed Porsche — one of the most lucrative jewels in its crown — from its vast garage of brands, setting up Europe’s biggest IPO in over 10 years at the time. The stock, for the most part, has been stuck in neutral since. Ferrari, which spun out from Fiat seven years before Porsche went public, has raced ahead in the (nearly) 10 years since it hit the market. Unlike its German rival, the Prancing Horse has kept investors enamored with measuredly infrequent supercar drops, impressive delivery figures, a loyal customer base, and (unlike other luxury titans) its relatively low exposure to China — though even “relatively low” can still be too high. Ferrari shares were up 760% from its 2015 IPO at Tuesday’s close. | SherwoodTesla has lost so much value in such a short period of time that J.P. Morgan analysts said they couldn't think of another comparable moment in automotive history. "We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly," they wrote, adding that the closest example was when Japanese and Korean car brands lost sales amid "diplomatic disputes" with China in 2012 and 2017, respectively. The JP Morgan analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday that those historical cases were "confined to a single market, whereas the decline in Tesla sales in 2025 is not specific to any one nation or geography." | Fortune ($)S&P Global Mobility said the ongoing global tariff war now puts the probability of the auto industry experiencing an extended disruption period at a startling 50%. That would mean several vehicle models will cease production, new vehicle prices would have to rise and product development delays could impact production for some years to come. S&P Global gives the industry one week before production starts dropping off at 20,000 vehicles per day. S&P Global Mobility rates the chance of a quick resolution scenario to tariffs at a 30% likelihood, given the recent state of affairs and ongoing fits and starts to the tariff war. | Detroit Free Press

President Trump’s threatened 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico would deal a major blow to the auto industry, whose supply chains extend across U.S. borders into both of those countries. Those tariffs have been paused until April. But, a second set of tariffs, 25% on imports of steel and aluminum, took effect this week, and those will also hit car manufacturers. New car prices could increase $4,000 or more, according to one estimate. And used cars could also rise in price. | The New York Times ($)

Experian Automotive's Q4 2024 Automotive Market Trends Report is available. | Experian Automotive

Automakers have added new tech features in the 2020s that go beyond the touch screens, assisted-driving systems and companion phone apps that have become ubiquitous in new cars. Some vehicles come with infrared night vision, seasonal ambient lighting and interior “fam cams” showing rear passengers. Many drivers say it is too much. The share who had positive feelings about the intuitiveness of their car’s controls fell from 79% in 2015 to 56% in 2024, according to surveys of new-car buyers by Strategic Vision, a market-research firm. The trend was similar for drivers’ perceptions of dashboard displays, screen interfaces and the layout of the instrument panel. Drivers are still happy overall with the technology in cars, said Alexander Edwards, president of Strategic Vision. But they want it to be as easy to use as an iPhone, and most of it isn’t. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

The share of vehicles deemed totaled in collisions hit an all-time high of 27% in 2023, according to LexisNexis Risk Solutions data compiled for Axios. That's up from 19% in 2018. | AXIOSEuropean cities are dramatically scaling back their relationship with the car. They are removing parking spaces and creating dedicated bike lanes. They are installing cameras at the perimeter of urban centers and either charging the most polluting vehicles or preventing them from entering. Some are going so far as to put entire neighborhoods off-limits to vehicles. | The Washington Post ($)

The first trailer for F1, the new feature film about a fictional Formula 1 team starring Brad Pitt. | YouTube

🇨🇳 China

These days, we hear Chinese leaders loudly criticize American tariffs, calling them “arbitrary and destructive.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi earlier this week said that American tariffs were “meeting good with evil”. Don’t be fooled by Wang’s words. The reality is that China has managed an elaborate system of tariff and non-tariff barriers for decades. China has become an industrial machine the likes of which the world has never seen before. It has the scale, the supply chains, the speed – and the tariff walls – to crush most other countries. There is no doubt that tariffs – combined with massive investments in manufacturing – played a decisive role in China’s breathtaking industrial ascendancy. | Dunne Insights

BYD, the biggest car company in China, moved past Nissan, Honda and Ford in global sales last year. If BYD stays on its current growth path, it could surpass General Motors toward the end of this year. And it may be only a matter of time before BYD becomes the largest car company in the world. And yet, the Chinese auto industry is starting to face some significant headwinds. For one thing, a lot of countries are uncomfortable with all those Chinese cars pouring into their markets. The U.S. has already effectively blocked the Chinese automakers with tariffs and with bans on connected-car software and hardware from China. The European Union significantly raised its tariffs on Chinese EVs. Last year Mexico raised its tariffs on imported cars to 20%. Brazil is raising tariffs on electric imports, which will top out at 35% next year. And they’re doing that because of all the Chinese imports flooding into their markets. In fact, the Rhodium Group, a research company, says China’s vehicle exports have peaked and are not going to grow much. | Wards Auto

The U.S.’s desperate need for critical minerals—which include resources such as nickel, lithium and cobalt in addition to graphite—has been underscored by the Trump administration’s aggressive push for greater access in Ukraine and Greenland, rattling allies. In December, Beijing said it would ban certain mineral exports to the U.S. and conduct stricter reviews of graphite sales, in response to U.S. restrictions on semiconductor exports to China. Yet with its thumb on many of the best resources, China can dictate prices. Washington’s policy flip-flops keep blowing up miners’ plans. And many Western mining companies struggle to navigate higher-risk countries where critical minerals—all needed for green technologies and national defense—are prevalent, leaving them flat-footed when unrest erupts. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

🤖 Autonomy & Robotics

China’s robotaxi experiment is the world’s biggest. Robotaxis, which can be hailed through a fleet operator’s app, are all Level 4 (L4), meaning they do not need a driver in the car but can operate only within approved areas. In China, five companies run more than 2,300 robotaxis, according to Bernstein, a research firm. Baidu, Inc. leads with driverless fleets operating in 11 cities. Waymo, America’s only fare-collecting robotaxi firm, runs over 700 cars in San Francisco, Phoenix and Los Angeles. Tesla, which has not fulfilled promises made over a decade to build driverless AVs, claims it will soon launch a robotaxi service. | The Economist ($)

Robots like this are playing a bigger role in warehouse networks, with the incorporation of artificial intelligence enabling major companies to scale these technologies as they seek to beat rivals on convenience. Amazon is testing more advanced systems as part of its drive to increase efficiency in sorting and fulfillment centers. Investments in robotics and AI are part of the e-commerce giant’s $100bn planned capital expenditure this year. Reaching this point has taken Amazon more than a decade. | Financial Times ($)

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1991 Porsche 911 Reimagined by Singer DLS. | Broad Arrow

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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Automotive Ventures is both honored and excited that Assurant Ventures, the venture capital investment arm of Assurant, has invested in our new Mobility Fund II. LINK

📺 In The News

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Thanks to Auto Remarketing reporting on Automotive Ventures' new investment from Assurant Ventures / Assurant in our new Mobility Fund II. | Auto Remarketing

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Steve caught up with Kevin Frye from Jeff Wyler Automotive Family to discuss his presentation at the upcoming CXAUTO conference in June. | CXAUTO

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we discuss Assurant Ventures/Assurant's recent investment in the Automotive Ventures Mobility Fund II. | CBT News ($)

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👀 Companies to Watch

🌟 VizAuto empowers dealership groups by integrating every data set—not just the DMS—to create dynamic visualizations that enable actionable insights. | VizAuto

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