Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Mar 24 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading:

🚗

Automotive

While Amazon continues to refine its new car-shopping platform with customers and dealers in certain U.S. markets, the online retail giant is already eying its next endeavor: used cars. Fan Jin, director of Amazon Autos, told Automotive News during its Daily Drive podcast on March 17 that the platform would be “getting into used cars soon.” Amazon expanded the program from a closed pilot to a “public beta” at the end of 2024, enabling customers in 48 markets to use the site to purchase a Hyundai vehicle. Hyundai is Amazon’s launch partner, but the online retailer has expressed interest in working with other manufacturers. Amazon Autos is now in 68 markets, Jin said. That’s up from the 54 it announced alongside the premiere of a national ad campaign with Hyundai in January. | Automotive News ($)

For corporate America, including some major donors, the shock of Mr. Trump’s second term is that it turns out he really does believe the thing he’s been saying publicly for 40 years: Foreign countries are ripping America off, and tariffs are a silver bullet for America’s problems. When he says that “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the dictionary, he means it. To Mr. Trump, tariffs are not merely a negotiating tool. He believes they will make America rich again. And they combine two of his favorite features of the presidency: They are a unilateral power that he can turn on or off on a whim, and they create a begging economy, forcing powerful people to come before him to plead for mercy. | The New York Times ($)A new report from S&P Global Mobility warns of worst-case dire consequences for the auto industry should U.S. President Donald Trump implement his threatened blanket 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. S&P Global Mobility now forecasts what it calls “the extended disruption scenario” as the most likely of three scenarios, with a 50% chance of probability. S&P says the period would last 16-20 weeks, during which time “several high exposure vehicles will slow or cease production.” The next most likely scenario is what S&P calls the “quick resolution scenario,” which it gives a 30% chance of occurring. This scenario could take up to four weeks to play out. Under the worst-case scenario, the industry would face a “tariff winter,” which S&P gives a 20% chance of probability. | Automotive News ($)

About a dozen foreign-made models, including the sporty, relatively affordable BMW 3, are ensnared in President Trump’s trade war. That is because the German sedans made in a Mexican factory don’t meet the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement rules that won many automakers a brief reprieve from new 25% tariffs that went into effect earlier this month. The BMW 3 Series until recently has only been subject to a 2.5% duty when imported into the U.S. BMW told its dealers that the car, with a sticker price of around $47,000, is now subject to a 27.5% tariff, potentially adding more than $10,000 to the price tag. BMW Group said last week that the new tariffs will cut earnings by about $1 billion this year. The company also said it may try to base more of its factory work in North America in part to meet the free-trade agreement requirements. Separate from the import taxes on Mexico and Canada is a 20% levy on Chinese imports that took effect in stages. That has snared Volvo Cars, the Swedish brand now owned by China’s Geely Automobile, which has been importing from China the S90 sedan and the EX30 electric car. | The Wall Street Journal ($)Foxconn is close to making an electric vehicle deal with two Japanese companies, amid swirling speculation about a possible tie-up with Nissan or Honda following their failed merger talks. Speaking at the company’s earnings announcement, where Foxconn reported record-high net income for the 2024 fiscal year, the company said its new Japanese customers would work with Foxconn through contract design and manufacturing services to develop electric vehicles, according to the report. | Automotive News ($)In the US, the heavy-duty trucking industry is short more than 80,000 drivers, a number which is expected to double by 2030, according to the American Trucking Association (ATA). In Europe, more than 200,000 truck driving jobs are unfilled and that number is likely to rise to 745,000 by 2028, according to McKinsey & Company. Heavy-duty trucks have quietly emerged as an important battleground for autonomous technology. | Financial Times ($)German automotive supplier ZF Group plunged to a 1 billion euro ($1.1 billion) loss last year as it set aside hundreds of millions of euros for a restructuring to address what it called the "enormous pressure" facing its industry. Europe's auto sector is struggling, with weak demand, the high cost of shifting to electric vehicles, cheap competition from China, and rising trade tensions. | Reuters ($)

An analyst who is one of the biggest boosters of Tesla on Wall Street says Elon Musk is facing a “moment of truth” at his EV company because of a “crisis” he’s created by spending so much time in the Trump administration. The analyst, Wedbush Securities’s Daniel Ives, pleaded with Musk in a note published Thursday to reduce his role working with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). “If you agree or disagree with DOGE it misses the point that by Musk spending 110% of his time with DOGE (and not as Tesla CEO) since President Trump got back into the White House this has essentially turned Tesla into a political symbol…. and this is a bad thing,” Ives wrote. This has led to what Ives described as a “brand tornado crisis moment for Musk and Tesla.” | TechCrunch ($)The number of Tesla owners trading in their cars surged to a record high in March, compounding the troubles of an automaker that has been embroiled in controversy since CEO Elon Musk became a central figure of President Donald Trump’s administration. Of all vehicles traded in at dealerships for new or used cars through March 16, 1.4$ were Tesla cars from model year 2017 or newer — the highest share on record, according to data from U.S. car shopping website Edmunds, which analyzed purchases at traditional dealerships (but not direct-to-consumer brands). The data shows a steady increase: Last March, 0.4% of all vehicles traded in were Teslas. The figure rose to 0.8% in January and 1.2% in February. | The Washington Post ($)

Tesla’s reputational troubles and Stellantis’s falling sales are the latest examples of the obstacles facing transnational auto manufacturers. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

When electric vehicle startup Fisker went bankrupt in 2024, a fleet operator called American Lease saw an opportunity to serve the rideshare world in a place where it’s rapidly going all-electric. The company bought up the remaining stock of its vehicles, around 3,000 Ocean SUVs. American Lease spent around $42.5 million to buy the cars at a fair market rate of around $13,000 each, according to bankruptcy documents. It then rents them out for as low as $399 a month to Uber and Lyft drivers. But the life of a cab in New York isn’t easy, with potholes, rough roads, and distracted drivers threatening disaster at every turn. Where do these Fiskers go when something needs repair? They can’t go back to Fisker. Fisker’s done. Instead, they can find their help around the corner from American Lease’s Hunts Point warehouse at BHP Service Center. | Inside EVs

Parisians cast their ballots Sunday over an ambitious proposal floated by the mayor that would block 500 streets to road traffic and replace miles of asphalt with plants and trees, in a poll that will serve as a key test of people’s willingness to support climate policies even if they might have a disruptive impact on daily life. While the proposal’s supporters say the program will make the city more livable and help combat climate change, critics say the changes will make the city more difficult to navigate and further fuel the divide between Parisians and those who live in the suburbs. | The Washington Post ($)

⚡️ EVs

Republican plans to scrap nearly all federal support for electric vehicles could kneecap the nascent industry, auto industry experts say, just when more Americans are considering buying an EV and car companies are planning big investments. Those policies alone could shrink U.S. EV sales 40% in 2030 and eliminate the need for all planned EV assembly factories and put up to half of existing EV factories at risk of shutting down, according to a recent analysis from Princeton University. Between one-third and two-thirds of battery factories running by the end of this year would be at risk of closure. Most of those plants are concentrated in Republican-led districts in the South and Midwest. | The Washington Post ($)

Princeton University ZERO Lab reports on the "Potential Impacts of Electric Vehicle Tax Credit Repeal on US Vehicle Market and Manufacturing." They found that If US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) tailpipe emissions regulations and federal clean vehicle tax credits are repealed, sales of battery electric vehicles could drop about 30% in 2027 and 40% in 2030 relative to a scenario where current policies are continued. The share of battery electric vehicles in new light vehicle sales could drop from about 18% to 13% in 2026 and 40% to 24% in 2030. Cumulatively, 8.3 million less EVs and plug-in hybrids could be on U.S. roads in 2030. As much as 100% of planned construction and expansion of U.S. electric vehicle assembly and half of existing assembly capacity could be at risk of cancellation or closure. Between 29% and 72% of battery cell manufacturing capacity currently operating or online by the end of 2025 would also be unnecessary to meet automotive demand and could be at risk of closure, in addition to 100% of other planned facilities. There would be further (unquantified) impacts on U.S. materials, parts, and component suppliers upstream of EV and battery assembly. | Zenodo

BYD launched an upgraded platform for electric vehicles with a 1,000-volt architecture that it said could charge EVs as fast as pumping gas. Vehicles powered by the super e-platform with peak charging speeds of 1,000 kilowatts (kW) can travel 400 kilometers (249 miles) on a 5-minute charge. | Automotive News ($)

🇨🇳 China

A protracted price war in the Chinese car market continues to wreak havoc on dealership finances and operations, according to a study by the China Automobile Dealers Association. The trade group said that among dealerships it recently surveyed, 39% were profitable in 2024, with 19% breaking even and 42% reporting losses.z The extended fierce pricing and discount war in the new-car market was the primary contributing factor for the financial woes at most dealerships, the group said. | Automotive News ($)

Donald Trump wants to keep Chinese carmakers out of the US, but that won’t stop them from taking over the rest of the world. They already are. While the Trump administration is expected to shield the US’s Big Three from Chinese rivals at home, and Canada and the European Union have placed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, buyers in emerging markets have welcomed Chinese cars and trucks with open arms — posing a new threat to growth-hungry global automakers. China sends more vehicles abroad than any other country, and its passenger car exports surged nearly 20% to 4.9 million in 2024 alone, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers — from less than 1 million in 2020. | Bloomberg ($)

BYD is the carmaker on everyone’s lips at the moment and the chatter may be about to get even louder. China’s best-selling automaker is due to report its full-year earnings on Monday and revenue could top $100 billion — a first for BYD that would also put it ahead of Tesla, whose 2024 sales were $97.7 billion. BYD has had an amazing run. Since it stopped selling internal-combustion-engine cars in March 2022 — making it the first major automaker in the world to fully transition away from gasoline-powered vehicles — sales have registered hockey-stick growth. That’s thanks in large part to BYD’s lineup of attractive models across the price spectrum. The battery company turned carmaker already sells about the same number of EVs as Tesla — 1.76 million in 2024 versus Tesla’s 1.79 million — but is much larger when all of its other passenger hybrid car sales are included. BYD’s total car deliveries last year climbed to 4.25 million, almost as many as Ford. For 2025, BYD thinks it will ship as many as 6 million vehicles. | Bloomberg ($)

Beijing is delaying approval for carmaker BYD to build a plant in Mexico amid concerns that the smart car technology developed by China’s biggest electric vehicle maker could leak across the border to the US. China’s commerce ministry fears that Mexico would gain unrestricted access to BYD’s advanced technology and know-how, even possibly allowing US access to it. “The commerce ministry’s biggest concern is Mexico’s proximity to the US,” said one of the people. | Financial Times ($)

Chinese automaking juggernaut BYD is taking things to even greater heights, now staking claim to a system it says will make it as quick to charge an electric vehicle as to refuel a gasoline car. BYD showcased the upgrade to its EVs (the Shenzhen-based automaker also makes hybrid cars) at an event on Monday evening in China. The so-called Super e-Platform features flash-charging batteries, a 30,000 RPM motor and new silicon carbide power chips. In layman’s terms, what that means is that its cars can achieve a charging power of one megawatt and a peak charging speed of two kilometers per second, making — BYD says — it the fastest system of its type for mass-produced vehicles and allowing for 400 kilometers of range in just five minutes of charging. | Bloomberg ($)

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car(s) of the Week": a collection of six 991-generation GT-series Porsche 911s and a 2019 Man TGX 18.640 transport truck with Rolfo Auriga trailer, to be sold as one lot. (The 911s consist of: GT3 Touring, 911 R, GT3 RS, GT3, GT3 Cup, GT3 Cup R: All six cars are offered from single ownership with only delivery mileage). | RM Sotheby's

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

Forwarded this email and not yet a subscriber?

Subscribe Now

📺 In The News

📢

On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we discuss Amazon's potential entrance into the used vehicle space. | CBT News ($)

Enjoying this newsletter? Please share with others!

👀 Companies to Watch

🌟 Updation empowers auto dealers with their AI vendor & contract management application. | Updation

🎪 Upcoming Industry Events

ToolTechMar 31 - Apr 2 | Coronado, CASpeaker(Link)IBIS - International Bodyshop Industry SymposiumApr 1-3 | ChicagoSpeaker(Link)GAMIC Innovation ChallengeApr 7 | DetroitParticipant(Link)WCXApr 8-10 | DetroitSpeaker(Link)AIS - Auto Intel SummitApr 8-10 | Cary, NCSpeaker(Link)Fixed Ops RoundtableMay 12-15 | Virtual EventSpeaker(Link)AutosBuzzMay 20-21 | Berlin, GermanySpeaker(Link)