Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Mar 31 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts beginning April 3, a move meant to “protect America’s automobile industry” by encouraging more domestic production. About half of the cars sold in the United States last year were imported, and virtually all vehicles sold contained some foreign-made parts. | The Washington Post ($)

When President Trump convened CEOs of some of the country’s top automakers for a call earlier this month, he issued a warning: They better not raise car prices because of tariffs. Trump told the executives that the White House would look unfavorably on such a move, leaving some of them rattled and worried they would face punishment if they increased prices. Instead, Trump said, they should be grateful for his elimination of what he called former President Joe Biden’s electric-vehicle mandate, which involved subsidies and emissions requirements to encourage electric-car production. He made a lengthy pitch for how they would actually benefit from tariffs, adding that he was bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. and was better for their industry than previous presidents. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he “couldn’t care less” if car prices spike because of his 25% tariffs on auto imports, saying the levies will prompt more people to buy American cars. “I couldn’t care less. I hope [foreign automakers] raise their prices, because if they do, people are going to buy American-made cars. We have plenty,” he said in the interview with NBC News’ Kristen Welker that aired Saturday. During the interview, he said he did not warn U.S. automakers against hiking prices on their cars as reported by some news organizations. He said his message to industry leaders was: “Congratulations, if you make your car in the United States, you’re going to make a lot of money. If you don’t, you’re going to have to probably come to the United States, because if you make your car in the United States, there is no tariff.” | The Washington Post ($)

As the fallout from President Donald Trump’s tariff plans starts to be clear, a harsh truth is emerging for the automotive industry: Among the many losers, Elon Musk’s Tesla stands out as a clear winner. The electric vehicle maker has large factories in California and Texas that produce all the cars it sells in the U.S., insulating it to a greater degree from Trump’s new levies on auto imports and key components. Major rivals from South Korea’s Hyundai to Germany’s Volkswagen and America’s own General Motors meanwhile will soon face sharply higher costs. | Automotive News ($)

Governments from Ottawa to Paris are threatening retaliation after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a 25% tariff on imported vehicles. | Reuters ($)

New U.S. automobile tariffs, along with additional proposed tariffs targeting key trading partners, could increase costs and introduce further volatility across property, auto, life, and health insurance lines, according to industry analysts. AM Best director Ann Modica said the imposition of tariffs may generate uncertainty that affects both underwriting and investment strategies. Broader geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions are also likely outcomes. Modica noted that these developments could influence asset markets, capital flows, and investor behavior, contributing to greater market volatility throughout 2025. The U.S. is considering a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, in addition to higher tariffs on Chinese goods. These measures are expected to negatively impact the insurance sector, with particular implications for homeowners’ and personal auto insurance. | Insurance Business

Cox Automotive notes that while new vehicle transaction prices are only up 1% from last year, tariffs are likely to increase them over the remainder of 2025. | Cox Automotive

Car prices began spiking in early 2021, as pandemic-related glitches and supply shortages pushed up the cost of key parts and labor. By late 2022, the average cost of a car had risen 21% to more than $49,900, according to data from Cox Automotive. Prices have steadied since then but remain near record highs. | The Washington Post ($)

It was a sudden spike in used car prices in 2021 that first set off the inflation scare. Given the political disaster that eventually inflicted on the Democrats, the new administration ought to take great care not to stage a repeat. But tariffs on imported new cars might do just that. | Bloomberg ($)

U.S. Franchise dealer average front-end gross profit collapsed from a peak of $2,926 per vehicle in December 2021 to $655 in January 2025, though it’s still up 6.2% from the $404 collected in January 2019, according to StoneEagle. But, finance managers’ January 2025 back-end gross of $1,814 was down only 7.4% from this decade’s monthly high of $1,958 per vehicle in November 2021. | Automotive News ($)

There were 2,332,837 car loan defaults last year. That’s a staggering number and it even eclipsed those during the peak of the Great Recession. Last year’s default rate was 3.13%, which was the highest since 2011. However, that trend started with the Great Recession as the default rate was 3.18% in 2007 and jumped to 3.76% in 2008. It then peaked at 4.12% the following year, before slowly settling back down into the 2% range. Since repos and defaults go together, it isn’t surprising to learn there was a spike in repossessions last year. An estimated 1.73 million vehicles were taken back in 2024, which was the highest level since 2009. The repossession rate, of 2.3%, also climbed to levels not seen in years. | Carscoops

Joe Overby from Auto Remarketing catches up with Matt Nuffort from Amazon to discuss Amazon's used car strategy. | AutoRemarketing ($)

Next to space travel, remaking the government sounds easy. Elon Musk conceives of himself as the saviour of humanity, who will put people on Mars as a prelude to making humankind a multiplanetary species. But of all the things President Donald Trump has done at home since his inauguration in January, putting DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency) under Mr Musk has turned out to be the most polarizing. The world’s richest man is exalted by some as an altruistic genius and hated by others as a self-dealing villain. Is he remaking the government, or breaking it? | The Economist ($)

The Toyota Circular Factory (TCF) is a new initiative that will curate what they call end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) and piece them out for repurposing, remanufacturing, and recycling. ELVs are vehicles tagged as hazardous waste, usually due to age or as the result of a crash. Through the TCF, each ELV will go through an extensive validation process before being sorted. Materials and parts will be tagged for three key areas: reusability for resale, refurbishing, and recycling. Reusable parts will be sold through Toyota retailers and parts distributors. Raw materials like copper, aluminum, steel, and plastic would be recycled and used in the production of new parts. Everything will be assessed, including commodities like batteries and wheels, on where their second life will begin. | The Drive

“Do you know an example of where there was a consolidation of companies and they’ve made a big success for the competitiveness?” Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda asked rhetorically. “Just having volume doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re strong.” Moreover, managing a merger of two auto assemblers is just the beginning of the challenge, Toyoda cautioned. The complexity of consolidation only multiplies when the new partners try to sort out their vast international supply chains and dealer networks. | Automotive News ($)Virginia is set to become the first state in the country to require some reckless drivers to put devices on their cars that make it impossible to drive too fast. D.C. passed similar legislation last year. Several other states, including Maryland, are considering joining them. It’s an embrace of a technological solution to a human problem: Speeding contributes to more than 10,000 deaths a year. Under the Virginia legislation, a judge can decide to order drivers to install the speed limiters in their vehicles in lieu of taking away their driving privileges or sending them to jail. It takes effect in July 2026. | The Washington Post ($)

⚡️ EVs

Electrification is the leading priority for most automakers, who are planning to invest heavily into new products and technologies, according to a Reuters report. A majority of automakers — 62% — see electrification as a pressing priority, according to Reuters’ Auto Strategic Insights review 2024, which surveyed 542 respondents worldwide. Manufacturing efficiency came second in terms of priorities, with 40%, followed by software-defined vehicle strategies, with 38%. | Automotive News ($)

“Rare earths” and “critical materials” are increasingly familiar terms. Yet they remain fuzzy, confusing things. The Economist provides a helpful primer on the world’s most wanted metals and minerals. | The Economist ($)

GM Energy has joined Pacific Gas and Electric Company's vehicle-to-everything bidirectional charging pilot program for electric vehicles in Northern and Central California, the utility provider announced March 13. Eligible residential customers enrolled in PG&E’s vehicle-to-everything (V2X) pilot will receive discounts of up to $4,500 off the price of a GM Energy home charging bundle and vehicle-to-home enablement kit, which is usually priced at $7,299. The base incentive is $2,500 for installing the equipment, with up to $2,000 of additional incentives available for residents of disadvantaged communities and early adopters. Vehicle-to-home charging technology is intended to serve as a backup source of power that can, for example, supply energy to homes during power outages. But according to the companies involved in the pilot project, it can do much more. | Automotive Dive

🇨🇳 China

Car haulers in the U.S. typically carry about 10 cars max. China does things differently: carmakers use jumbo-sized haulers, oftentimes capable of carrying 30 cars. | The DriveChinese electric vehicle giant BYD aims to double its sales outside China to more than 800,000 cars in 2025 and will look to overcome tariffs by assembling cars locally, its chairman told analysts on an earnings call on Tuesday. BYD, which sold 417,204 units overseas in 2024, expects to see "a substantial rise" in its market share in Britain, which is "very open" to competitive Chinese products, according to a transcript of the call by Wang Chuanfu that was reviewed by Reuters. The company also sees "great opportunities" to grow rapidly in Latin American and Southeast Asian countries, where the governments and people are friendly towards Chinese brands, he said. With governments abroad weighing or levying tariffs against Chinese-made cars, BYD plans to keep its cost advantage by purchasing key components from China and assembling the vehicles in local markets, Wang added, without specifying the countries he was referring to. A BYD representative confirmed the target of doubling overseas sales to 800,000 units this year. | Reuters ($)Chinese automaker BYD believes their profitability per vehicle will exceed Toyota's when it reaches the scale of the Japanese manufacturer, claiming their cost controls are better. Toyota, the world's top automaker by sales, sold 10.8 million vehicles in 2024, while BYD sold 4.27 million. | Reuters ($)

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Micromobility

Rivian (RIVN) has spun out its micromobility business into a new company: Also, Inc. Also will focus on small, lightweight vehicles designed to meet global mobility transportation challenges. Rivian will retain a substantial minority ownership stake in Also. The company also received a $105 million investment from the venture capital fund Eclipse Ventures. Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe will serve on Also's Board. | TechCrunch ($)

✈️ Aviation & Space

Virgin Atlantic has announced a partnership with California-based Joby Aviation to introduce electric air taxi services in the UK. The partnership will focus on developing zero-emission, short-range routes from Virgin’s hubs at Heathrow and Manchester Airports, with the aim of offering competitive pricing compared to existing premium ground transport options. Joby’s electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, designed to carry four passengers and a pilot, can travel up to 100 miles at speeds of 200mph. Proposed routes include a 15-minute flight from Manchester Airport to Leeds Bradford Airport and an 8-minute journey from Heathrow to Canary Wharf Group, potentially reducing travel times significantly compared to traditional ground transport. Virgin Atlantic will assist in marketing the service, engaging with regulators, and supporting the development of necessary infrastructure. | ZAG Daily

After spending months and more than $250 million campaigning to elect President Trump, Elon Musk made a call late last year to help roll out his plan for humanity’s path beyond Earth. He reached his friend Jared Isaacman with a request: Would Isaacman become the head of NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration? He told Isaacman, the payments entrepreneur who has flown to orbit with SpaceX and invested in the company, that they could make NASA great again and work toward their shared ambition of getting humans to Mars, according to people briefed on the conversation. Soon after the call, Trump announced Isaacman’s appointment. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

When it comes to putting humans on Mars, which he sees as the first step towards the planet’s settlement and humankind’s salvation, Elon Musk now has little to worry about from human law. Mr Musk has overseen the gutting of the Federal Aviation Administration, America’s aviation authority and a sometime obstacle to his company SpaceX, by his so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). What is more, he stands at the side of an American president who, as well as having little regard for legal strictures, explicitly endorses Mr Musk’s Martian agenda. In his inaugural address President Donald Trump declared that it was time for Americans to “pursue our manifest destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars”. This was not a one-off. He repeated the aspiration in his address to Congress six weeks later. There are, though, physical constraints. They do not preclude reaching the orbit of Mars from that of Earth. That is, in principle, fairly simple. Put your spacecraft on an elliptical orbit around the Sun, carefully chosen so that it is tangential to Earth’s orbit upon departure, and tangential to Mars’s orbit upon arrival (see diagram). The mathematics dictate that, six to eight months later, it will arrive at a point on the orbit of Mars that lies on the opposite side of the Sun. | The Economist ($)

Elon Musk’s Starlink is set to cement its dominance of the satellite internet market with a surge in revenues this year, but the world’s richest man’s ties to U.S. President Donald Trump are shifting from an asset to a hindrance in its global rollout. In the U.S., Musk’s alliance with Trump has removed obstacles and monopoly concerns harbored by Biden-era officials, paving the way for lucrative federal contracts. But the SpaceX founder’s foray into politics has begun to hamper its global expansion plans, as regulators in each country need to approve Starlink’s entry into their market and politicians weigh up whether Musk is a reliable partner. | Financial Times ($)

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Investments

Tomasz Tunguz reports that 71% of exit dollars in 2024 came from Secondary Transactions. Historically, IPOs and M&A have been the dominant exit paths for venture backed companies. Some years IPOs dominate, other M&A dominates, but in 2024 secondaries captured the super majority. | Tomasz Tunguz

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 2020 Ford GT Mk II Race Car #001. | Bring A Trailer

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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📺 In The News

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Thanks to Auto Remarketing for the coverage of Privacy4Cars' new and improved Vehicle Privacy Report™. | Auto Remarketing ($)

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Steve was quoted in Automotive News. | Automotive News ($)

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we discuss why your next Uber or Lyft ride in NYC might very well be in a Fisker. | CBT News ($)

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