Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | May 12 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

Because of Trump’s tariffs, which went into effect on April 3 for finished cars and trucks but will take time to trickle down to the models on dealers’ lots, financial planners across the U.S. say they’ve received an onslaught of inquiries from clients trying to purchase new vehicles. The president’s directives signed last week are meant to soften the car-tariff blow, in part by preventing multiple levies from piling on top of each other, but those buyers who raced to lock down vehicles are still on the hook for years of payments. The high cost of new cars combined with the urgency to buy before tariffs hit could be a recipe for remorse should the economy slip into recession. | Bloomberg ($)

Automakers and their dealers—which have goaded would-be buyers with employee-pricing-for-everyone deals and appeals to buy before pre-tariff inventory runs out sometime this summer—have indisputably seen a FOMO-driven boom. But this frothy auto market will likely leave some buyers with a financial hangover, especially since there already have been signs that more car buyers are missing payments. Delinquencies on auto loans have been rising, and car repossessions spiked to 2.7 million last year, almost double the rate of repos in 2021, according to the Recovery Database Network. Despite an average new-car loan rate of more than 9%, banks this spring began extending more loans to subprime buyers, according to Cox Automotive. At the same time, prices remain stubbornly high, with average monthly payments for a new vehicle costing $734 in March, up about 27% since early 2020, according to automotive researcher Edmunds. To cope, new-car buyers have been extending the length of their loans, with one in five now taking out a seven-year note, Edmunds says. That’s likely to leave more owners upside down on their loans. One-quarter of trade-ins now are worth less than what’s owed on the loan, a situation known as negative equity. | Bloomberg ($)

People are rushing to dealerships to buy cars before tariff price increases, but that doesn’t mean they can get financing. Large auto lenders such as Wells Fargo and Capital One have tightened their standards over the past few years, meaning more people are getting rejected as demand rises. And some firms have tightened further in the past few months. Ally Financial, for example, received a record 3.8 million loan applications in the first quarter of 2025, but it approved fewer borrowers than the prior quarter. Credit Acceptance, which offers financing to borrowers with lower credit scores, said it is retrenching after seeing signs that newer borrowers are struggling to keep up with payments. Capital One is making more auto loans than it did a year ago, but executives say they are staying selective about whom they lend to. More than half of the bank’s auto loans went to borrowers in the highest credit tier last quarter. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

According to the newly released Global Automotive Supplier Study 2025 by Roland Berger and Lazard, the global automotive supplier landscape is under strain, with profit margins falling to a projected industry average of just 4.7% in 2024. The report, which analyzed over 600 suppliers worldwide, highlights that while North American suppliers have fared better than most, there are significant industry pressures. In 2024, Chinese suppliers led with EBIT margins of 5.7%, followed by suppliers in North America (5.5%), Europe (3.6%) and South Korea (3.4%). | Reuters ($)

Long gone are the days when an imported car meant a foreign car. And no company proves the point more than General Motors. The Detroit stalwart imported more cars into the US last year than any other automaker, even Japan’s Toyota Motor Corporation. Nearly half of the vehicles GM sold in the US last year – 1.23 million autos – were built abroad, according to researcher GlobalData. That includes many of its most affordable models, like the Korean-made Chevrolet Trax and Buick Envista SUVs, whose low prices depend on cheap production. ow, no American automaker stands to lose more in President Donald Trump’s trade war. Trump has slapped 25% tariffs on imported autos, arguing it’s a response to unfair barriers that American-made cars face in other countries. But the tariffs have GM scrambling to manage levies of up to $5 billion this year, which despite some offsets will slash 2025 earnings before interest and taxes by about 20%, the company estimates. | Bloomberg ($)

A year ago, the world’s biggest automaker was on a tear. American consumers were snapping up Toyota’s hybrids, and a weak yen inflated the value of the company’s earnings. That May, Toyota reported the highest annual profit ever recorded by a Japanese firm. On Thursday, Toyota presented a significantly more somber outlook, projecting that its operating profit would decline by about one-fifth for the fiscal year ending in March. It cited headwinds from a stronger yen and predicted a $1.3 billion hit from President Trump’s tariffs in April and May alone. The company estimated the effect of the auto tariffs, which started in April, only for those two months. Beyond that, their impact is “very difficult to forecast,” Toyota’s chief executive, Koji Sato, said in a briefing on Thursday. “The current environment surrounding the auto industry, including trade relations, is in extreme flux,” he said. | The New York Times ($)

Mike Musheinesh, CEO of Detroit Axle gets about 75% of the auto parts his company sells from China. But even with plenty to lose in a trade war, Mr. Musheinesh gave President Trump the benefit of the doubt when he started increasing tariffs on the company’s most important trading partner. The president “needs to shake it up, and I’m actually paying for the shake-up,” Mr. Musheinesh said in mid-April. “But at the end,” he added, “I think it’s going to be much better off.” These days, he is less certain. The U.S.-China trade deal he thought would have materialized by now remains elusive. To blunt the effects of the tariffs, Mr. Musheinesh has started selling directly to consumers in Mexico and has entered into a deal with a factory in Turkey. But only so much can be done. “Actually, I am panicking now,” Mr. Musheinesh said last week after paying a 145% tariff on a container of new products that had arrived in Detroit from China. He said, “being able to pay for this negotiation is about to run out on my end.” He added, “It’s gone long enough.” | The New York Times ($)Get behind the wheel of the Ford Mustang GTD as it returns to the Nürburgring, clocks a 6:52:072 lap and takes its spot as the fourth-fastest production sports car to complete a sub-7-minute circuit. Breaking seven minutes at the Nürburgring is elite-level speed, with only five production sports cars ever achieving it. | YouTube

⚡️ EVs

The electric vehicle industry hit a pothole in April. Sales of EVs in the U.S. fell by around 5% during the month, according to estimates from the research firm Motor Intelligence, while the broader car market grew by 10%. Monthly EV sales in the U.S. have only declined three times since 2021. The declines were across most brands, from KIA and Hyundai to Ford. Tesla, which has accounted for around half of EV sales in the U.S., reported that sales dropped nearly 13%. Sales of Rivian’s R1T pickup and R1S SUV declined by half. Dealers cited several factors for the drop, from cooling customer interest to fewer promotions and discounts that juiced sales in the past. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Driving an electric vehicle could get more expensive if congressional Republicans have their way. GOP lawmakers have proposed levying an annual $250 fee on EV owners as part of President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” on taxes, immigration, energy and defense. They argue that the fee, which would be collected using the existing state registration system, would help offset the cost of extending Trump’s expiring 2017 tax cuts. Yet the proposal is stirring controversy on and off Capitol Hill, with climate advocates calling it a punitive tax on EV owners — one that is far pricier than the fee paid by owners of gasoline-powered cars. | The Washington Post ($)

Foxconn, the Taiwanese electric vehicle upstart, just scored its first deal to make EVs for a global auto brand with an agreement to supply Mitsubishi a new product from next year. The vehicle, expected to be a compact crossover, will be built in Taiwan and exported to Australia and New Zealand in the second half of 2026. The move comes as Foxconn, the giant electronics contract manufacturer better known as the world’s largest maker of Apple iPhones, bids to become a supplier of automobiles as well. | Automotive News ($)

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Autonomy & Robotics

Mario Herger shows Waymo's fleet of autonomous cars at their San Francisco depot. | YouTube

Waymo said it recently received its last delivery of Jaguar I-Pace SUVs, which will be retrofitted with sensors and autonomous driving technology at its factory in Arizona, before joining its robotaxi fleet. In a blog post, the Alphabet company said it currently has 1,500 Jaguars operating across its four main markets: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin. And it plans on adding 2,000 more vehicles into 2026, for a total fleet size of 3,500. The company recently hit an average of 250,000 paid passenger trips per week. Waymo typically doesn’t like to comment on the size of its fleet, so their announcement provides a rare glimpse into the number of robotaxis the company currently has in operation. Waymo’s plans to scale up comes as the company eyes Atlanta, Miami, and Washington, DC for launch in 2026. | The Verge

Harry Campbell at The Driverless Digest estimates Waymo's fleet size by city. | The Driverless Digest

Autonomous driving technology is enjoying a renaissance after spending years in the doldrums. A confluence of technological, business and geopolitical developments have brought autonomy back to the forefront in the traditional automotive, taxi and trucking landscapes. Morgan Stanley estimates an addressable market related to autonomous driving of more than $1 trillion each year in the United States. Technical limitations, billion-dollar development costs, regulatory hurdles and some public perceptions have thwarted tech companies and traditional automakers in their decade-long attempt to reap those financial rewards. Those factors have not been eliminated, but they are being mitigated, experts said. Computing horsepower has improved, generative artificial intelligence has streamlined development and business models have matured. The industry has proved the technology can work. | Automotive News ($)

For years, self-driving cars were a feature of the sci-fi future. But Waymo’s leap from testing to ferrying paying customers in four cities has made robotaxis a reality. That’s set off a race among newcomers and industry stalwarts to expand new businesses that support autonomous vehicles. The Information outlines nine self-driving startups chasing Waymo's lead. | The Information ($)

Uber is preparing its entire business for an autonomous driving future. While it sold its autonomous vehicle (AV) unit (ATG) in 2020, the now-profitable company is leveraging its 2.8 billion quarterly trips and global reach to attract AV partnerships that could reduce costs long-term across its rideshare, delivery, and freight business lines. For transportation and logistics executives, Uber’s recent activity signals a shift in the mobility landscape, highlighting the importance of diverse AV partnerships to hedge against tech and regulatory uncertainties while capturing early market share. | CB Insights ($)

Elon Musk's vision of tomorrow relies on humanoid robots, led by Tesla’s Optimus prototype, perhaps even more than it does on electric cars and self-driving taxis. “My prediction is that a majority of Tesla’s long-term value will be Optimus,” he declared at the firm’s shareholder meeting in June.Whether Optimus turns Tesla from a $1 trillion company into a $25 trillion company, as Musk has predicted, he might well be directionally correct about the future importance of humanoid robots. Musk might have a reputation for overhyping his products, but the more staid Goldman Sachs is also paying attention, writing in a report last year that humanoid robots could “become the next commonly adopted technology after EVs and smartphones.” JPMorgan predicts that 2026 could be the “Year of Physical AI” and expects to see early adopters using humanoid robots soon. Musk in January said Tesla plans to build 10,000 Optimus robots this year and that he was confident “several thousand” would be “doing useful things” by year-end. | The Washington Post ($)

Chinese battery-electric-vehicle makers, including major players such as GAC, BYD, XPENG and Xiaomi, are aggressively entering the market for the development of humanoid robots. Their goal is improving automaking efficiency and finding new non-auto markets for the technology, and they may have the jump on much of the global competition. Indeed, the Chinese seem to be outpacing Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has said his company would begin deploying humanoid robots at some of its facilities by 2025. | Wards Auto

🚎 Public Transport

America’s mass transit agencies are teetering on the brink of collapse. The money they got from Congress to help them through Covid-19 is running out, but ridership remains below what it was before the pandemic. Lower fare revenue plus higher wage costs equals a bigger deficit. Unless state governments fill that gap, agencies will need to dramatically curtail service. Yet service levels are one of the primary determinants of ridership. Hence the increasing risk of a “death spiral,” where revenue shortfalls lead to service cutbacks, which lead to lower revenue, which lead to service cuts, and so on. State legislatures should try to avoid this doom cycle, even though finding the money may be difficult. But there is a deeper issue here, beyond the question of less funding versus more, or higher versus lower levels of service: the declining labor productivity of transit agencies. The tasks performed by transit workers have remained basically the same for decades even as wages have risen to keep up with economy-wide trends. | Bloomberg ($)

🏭 Supply Chain

On April 24, against the backdrop of towering cranes, dockworkers at the Port of Long Beach began unloading the OOCL Violet, a hulking shipping vessel carrying thousands of containers full of goods bound for the US. The Violet is one of the first ships confronting a harsh, new reality: a steep 145% tariff rate on nearly half of its Chinese cargo, brought on by President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war with China. The ship had already begun loading goods bound for the US prior to Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. When the ship reached California, it carried cargo with a total estimated value of at least $564 million, according to detailed bills of lading data from IHS Markit. About 40% of the goods were likely subject to the new 145% rate, according to Bloomberg News estimates. The data suggests importing companies face at least $417 million in new tariffs for all goods on the ship. That’s on top of preexisting import fees. | Bloomberg ($)

The F-35 is a symbol of U.S. military and technological might. It is also reliant for more than 80 parts on a little-known company based in a quiet Danish suburb. Overall, the jet fighter, made by Lockheed Martin, has more than 1,900 suppliers from about a dozen countries that provide everything from tiny chip boards to the ejector seat. The F-35’s sprawling supply chain is one example of how even the U.S. defense industry, which exports billions of dollars worth of weapons while importing few in return, could be challenged by the Trump administration’s sweeping trade policies. Tariffs are primed to make many of the components and raw materials that go into modern weapons more expensive. Defense companies are now wrestling with the potential impact and have, like other industries, lobbied the White House for exemptions. In the meantime, the Pentagon could end up footing much of the bill. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Trump’s tariffs have reportedly caused an up to 50% plummet in exports at some ports, and goods expected to arrive in the next month simply won’t. Exports at more than 21 major U.S. ports fell in a five-week period after President Donald Trump announced his tariffs, according to data from the shipping software company VIZION. | Fortune ($)On a sunny spring morning, when the Port of Los Angeles should be a blur of activity, more than half of the container ship berths here sit empty. The steel booms on dozens of towering ship-to-shore cranes point idly to the sky. These are the front lines of President Donald Trump’s trade war. The number of shipping containers that arrived at the nation’s top container port last week was roughly one-third lower than during the same period last year — a sharper decline than during the depths of the Great Recession. More than one-fifth of the giant ships that were scheduled to call in Los Angeles this month have already canceled, and that number is expected to rise. Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods — and Beijing’s triple-digit retaliation — are bringing a swift halt to the trans-Pacific flow of electronics, clothing, furniture, industrial parts and everything else that the world’s two largest economies exchange. | The Washington Post ($)

✈️ Aviation & Space

JetZero, the start-up aiming to take on plane makers Airbus and Boeing, is on track to fly the first full-scale model of its manta ray-shaped jetliner by late 2027. The company is about halfway through the key milestones in its development process for the so-called “demonstrator aircraft,” and is already laying plans to manufacture and certify the first commercial versions, Florentina Viscotchi, JetZero’s head of engineering, told reporters at its Long Beach, California, headquarters. Executives “feel very confident” they’re on the path to first flight by the end of 2027, as the company initially projected, she said. “Yes, we are very serious about this aircraft and it’s on the path to being really built.” | Bloomberg ($)

ARK Investment Management LLC is finalizing their open-source SpaceX valuation model. Analytically, the model works like a flywheel. Beginning with cash, SpaceX builds rockets and satellites, generates orbital bandwidth, acquires STARLINK customers, and reinvests the resulting cash. As the cycle continues, funds flow gradually toward Mars development until the Starlink constellation is complete. At that point, we assume that SpaceX goes “all-in” on Mars. Each Mars-bound rocket carries a mix of Optimus humanoid robots and materials. As Optimus costs decline and productivity improves over time, SpaceX builds its Mars “book value.” | ARK Invest

🌡️ Climate

For years, it’s been cheaper in most of the world to build new renewable energy than to build new fossil fuel plants. Now, wind and solar are hitting what BloombergNEF calls a “second tipping point”: They’re getting so cheap that in much of the world it’s less expensive to install new renewables than it is to operate existing fossil fuel plants. “New wind and solar are outcompeting existing fossil-fuel plants in markets that account for half of total electricity generation and three-fifths of global GDP,” wrote Amar Vasdev in BNEF’s February report on energy costs. | Bloomberg ($)

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 2004 Ferrari Enzo. | Collecting Cars

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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We’re launching something brand new at ASOTU CON 2025 called Fast Start: an invite-only gathering for early-stage founders building the future of automotive.

It’s happening Thursday, May 15 from 7:00 AM ET – 8:30 AM ET at ASOTU CON (before the Thursday content) and I’d love for you to apply to join us.

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📺 In The News

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Thanks to CollisionWeek for covering Automotive Ventures portfolio company Kinetic and their partnership with Chilton Auto Body to open a digital repair facility in San Carlos, Calif. The new 10,000-square-foot hub at 171 Industrial Road will serve customers from five Chilton Auto Body locations. | Collision Week

📢

On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we explore how Elon Musk's aggressive goal for his Tesla Optimus humanoid robots may intersect with SpaceX's vision of colonizing Mars. | CBT News ($)

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👀 Companies to Watch

🌟 Kimoby offers the Dealership Engagement System (DES) that optimizes every customer interaction. | Kimoby

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