Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | May 19 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

Car prices crept upward in April as tariffs took effect and global automakers braced for billions of dollars in potential extra costs. Cox Automotive’s first batch of Kelley Blue Book vehicle price data since the Trump administration’s auto tariffs took effect showed that the average transaction price for a new vehicle increased 2.5% last month. That’s compared to a typical increase of 1.1% for April over the past decade. Automakers also saw a surge of demand in the first three months of the year, as many consumers sought to get ahead of impending tariffs. That temporary buying frenzy is one factor that has pushed car prices upward every week since the auto tariffs were announced in March. Even vehicles that aren’t imported are becoming more expensive. | The Washington Post ($)

Japan’s trade-reliant carmakers are bracing for a profit pummeling of at least $11 billion, and possibly substantially more, over the coming year as the Trump administration’s war on imports unleashes a tsunami of tariff turmoil on the world’s No. 2 auto exporting nation. Much of that pain could be America’s gain as Japan’s manufacturers look to dial up U.S. output. | Automotive News ($)

Glenn Mercer (sharing data from Insurify), shows that of the 50 top-selling models in the U.S., Tesla’s four main models (S, X, 3, Y) are the four most expensive models to insure. See the chart, with the four Tesla’s in red (in descending order, 3, X, Y, S). | Glenn Mercer

In 2019, Tesla set out to lower insurance rates for owners of its electric cars. The goal was simple: fix the broken cost of car insurance. Musk's vision of Tesla's insurance product was that traditional companies just didn't "get it." Tesla's data claims that its Full Self-Driving software has fewer accidents than a human driver. Plus, its cars are rolling computers that can collect copious amounts of data on its drivers and adjust risk based on their driving. So why wouldn't drivers get a lower rate for putting around with FSD enabled if they also happen to be a safe driver? Tesla quickly found out that despite these assumptions, it's still taking steep losses on claim-related losses. The data comes from S&P Global and shows that the automaker's insurance subsidiary took a loss ratio of 103.3 in 2024. The loss ratio is the amount of money that Tesla pays out per claim versus the money it takes in from premiums. The lower the number, the better, and break-even is a flat 100. In 2024, the rest of the industry averaged 66.1. Tesla generated around $992 million through the sale of insurance premiums in 2024 across the U.S. | Inside EVs

Almost immediately after congestion pricing in NYC went into effect Jan. 5 — charging most vehicles $9 to enter Manhattan from 60th Street south to the Battery — they began to alter traffic patterns, commuter behavior, transit service, even the sound of gridlock and the on-time arrival of school buses. Evidence has mounted that the program so far is achieving its two main goals — reducing congestion and raising revenue for transit improvements — even as the federal government has ramped up pressure to halt it. In March, the tolls raised $45 million in net revenue, putting the program on track to generate roughly $500 million in its first year. Congestion pricing was designed to finance more than $15 billion in critical transit upgrades. Those investments will take years. But the parallel changes at street level are already apparent. | The New York Times ($)

Ford announced that it is merging FNV4, its project to develop a next-generation electrical architecture designed to unlock new functionality and upgradeability for both EVs and internal-combustion cars, with its existing architecture, seemingly confirming reports that the project has not gone as planned. It’s another in a long, long line of false starts in the race for legacy automakers to develop true “software-defined vehicles” (SDVs), and further proof of just how hard the task is. It’ll be worth the effort. Software-first architectures reduce costs, increase flexibility and—perhaps most importantly—allow automakers to move faster, without being slowed down by a complex web of suppliers creating their own code. Though becoming a leader in SDVs will be just as challenging as becoming an electric vehicle powerhouse, it’s also equally important. Consumers have had it with clunky, slow automotive technology, and the modern car is so computerized that a seamless electronic interface is an absolute necessity. None of the legacy automakers has solved this problem yet. All of them have thrown billions at it. Only some of them will complete the transformation. | Inside EVs

Ryan Mandell, director of claims performance for Mitchell International, presented his thoughts on how tariffs will affect the collision industry. He called the subject of impending tariffs a “very volatile, very important” one “that really has the potential to disrupt many of our organizations.” That potential volatility, he said, is driving widespread uncertainty about the economy, and present in that overall feeling are fears about how tariffs will impact collision repair and its intertwined relative, auto insurance. | Autobody News

Long portraying itself as the world’s climate leader, Europe is facing a fierce backlash against one of its key steps to reduce planet-warming emissions. Only four years ago, this continent bet on an electric car revolution that it thought could be both environmentally friendly and profitable. The European Union’s political leaders proposed a 2035 ban on new gas and diesel car sales by citing the “generational task” of saving the planet. They said the forward-thinking policy would also put the continent and its automakers at the forefront of innovation. But the transition is unfolding more chaotically — and with more trade-offs — than Europe had hoped. The continent’s auto industry is cutting jobs and struggling to compete with China, whose companies can produce EVs at a lower cost. And while some of the blame falls on the boardroom decisions of auto companies, Europe’s right-leaning politicians and car industry lobbyists are increasingly training their ire on the E.U.’s regulation. They say that if Europe sticks to its green automotive target, it risks job losses, closed factories and deepened dependence on Beijing, which dominates the EV supply chain. | The Washington Post ($)

⚡️ EVs

The number of electric vehicles (EVs) sold globally in April 2025 was 1.5 million, with 5.6 million sold year-to-date. The EV market grew by 29% in April 2025 compared to April 2024, and decreased by 12% compared to March 2025. Global EV sales continue to grow by 29% YTD in January – April 2025 vs January to April 2024. | Benchmark Source

A draft bill issued by Republicans on the U.S. House Committee on Ways & Means Committee would effectively end most of the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax incentives. A tax credit for low-carbon electricity sources like wind, solar, nuclear or geothermal power would be phased out over the next few years. Rebates for consumers to buy electric vehicles would mostly disappear by the end of 2025. Tax breaks for domestic factories that make batteries or solar panels would end by 2031 and would contain new restrictions that could make them extremely difficult to access. Incentives for producing hydrogen fuels would end this year. While shrinking those tax credits could help Republicans save hundreds of billions of dollars, it could also cause companies to abandon plans for new nuclear reactors or battery factories. More than three-quarters of pending investments were planned in Republican-held congressional districts. | The New York Times ($)

Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives proposed killing the electric vehicle tax credit and repealing fuel efficiency rules designed to prod automakers into building more zero-emission vehicles as part of a broad-based tax reform bill. The proposal, which is set for a U.S. House Committee on Ways & Means hearing on Tuesday, would repeal a $7,500 new-vehicle tax credit and a $4,000 used-vehicle credit on Dec. 31, although it would maintain the new-vehicle credit for an additional year for automakers that have not yet sold 200,000 EVs. | Reuters ($)

Sales of electric vehicles have been rising in recent years, partly because of a $7,500 tax credit from the federal government that helps lower the cost of buying one. But a budget bill that House Republicans released on Monday would end that tax credit. Their proposal would also put new restrictions on other tax breaks that have encouraged automakers to invest tens of billions of dollars in new battery plants in the United States. The Republican tax proposal would hurt many automakers that have been racing to introduce new models. General Motors and Ford may be hit particularly hard. Both have invested heavily in factories and supply chains with the hope of eventually producing millions of electric vehicles a year. Tesla, however, has some advantages. While most automakers are still losing money on electric cars, Tesla has been making money on them for years. As a result, it might have more financial leeway to lower prices to prop up demand if the credits end. The company also relies less on imported parts than other U.S. automakers. | The New York Times ($)

Questions about the future of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit might have sown some confusion about its availability for those in the market for a new or used EV. For the time being, at least, the credit should be available for buyers, although the Detroit Free Press has heard of instances where auto dealers have held back by not offering the credit to buyers who want it up front in the form of a rebate at the point of sale. Some politicians in Washington have also suggested its days are numbered. | Detroit Free Press

General Motors revealed Tuesday a new battery chemistry called lithium-manganese-rich (LMR), which it says should slash costs while delivering driving range that’s just shy of the most advanced batteries on the market. “With LMR, we can deliver over 400-mile range in our trucks while significantly reducing our battery costs,” Kurt Kelty, GM’s vice president of battery, propulsion, and sustainability, told TechCrunch. LMR will also dramatically reduce the amount of nickel and cobalt compared with GM’s most advanced cells, two critical minerals that aren’t readily available from domestic sources in the United States.. | TechCrunch ($)

General Motors went all in on electric cars. Now it is racing to reverse the nation’s most aggressive EV mandate. GM, one of the biggest sellers of EVs in the U.S., is encouraging employees to use scripted talking points to lobby senators. The goal is to nullify a 2022 California measure that would ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars and trucks by 2035, a mandate that has since been adopted by 11 other states. The Senate could vote as early as next week to revoke a waiver that allows California to set its own stricter tailpipe emissions standards. GM set its own internal goal of ending sales of nearly all gas-only vehicles by 2035 and initially supported the California target, while advocating for a uniform national standard. But the EV market has taken a turn. Three years ago, U.S. automakers couldn’t keep up with demand; now EV sales are beginning to sputter. Discounts are drying up, car buyers are seeking lower-priced alternatives, and Congress is looking to roll back tax credits that for years have powered electric vehicle sales. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

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China

The Economist interprets data from Rho Motion, comparing the size of various EV markets as well as the segment held by Chinese companies. To show both metrics at relative scale, The Economist decided to visualize this data in a proportional area chart — the large square representing the total number of battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles sold in that country in 2024, and the red square within showing the Chinese share. The high proportion of vehicles coming from China, particularly in south-east Asian, Central and South American countries, is immediately obvious. | Financial Times ($)

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Autonomy & Robotics

Federal safety investigators have sent Tesla a detailed list of questions on its upcoming robotaxi service as part of an investigation into how the company’s “Full Self-Driving (Supervised)” software operates in low-visibility conditions. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation wants the additional information about Full Self-Driving (Supervised) — or “FSD” — in order to “understand how Tesla plans to evaluate its vehicles and driving automation technologies for use on public roads,” according to the letter published Monday and first reported by Reuters. | TechCrunch ($)

In a break from tradition, Kawasaki, a Japanese motorcycle maker, has announced plans to build a new breed of off-road machine shaped like a robotic horse. Corleo, as the machine is called, has a body like a headless steed, complete with four multi-jointed legs powered by electric motors. A pair of handlebars serves as reins and adjustable leg supports, of the kind found on motorbikes, pass for stirrups. Corleo will also not require a farrier: instead of being shod with steel horseshoes, its hooves are clad in rubber. This will help it absorb shocks and improve its grip. Like a real horse, the rider will control it by moving their hands, arms and legs as well as by shifting their weight about. These movements, which can be very subtle in real equestrians, are detected by a combination of sensors, with the data passed on to an artificial intelligence system that instructs the motors to respond accordingly and to maintain the robot’s balance. Once development is completed, Corleo could carry two people and be able to break into a swift canter. | The Economist ($)

As the U.S. negotiates with China over tariffs that President Donald Trump had imposed to help bring back U.S. manufacturing jobs, Beijing is aiming for a new industrial revolution where many factory tasks would be performed by humanoid robots. In recent years, Chinese humanoid robots have demonstrated increasing feats of agility, including performing somersaults, running a half-marathon, and even playing football. But Reuters is reporting for the first time details about how China's advances in artificial intelligence, partly driven by the success of homegrown firms like DeepSeek as well as abundant government support, are allowing humanoid developers to pair the robots' already impressive hardware with the software needed to make them economically valuable. Reuters spoke to more than a dozen people, including Chinese humanoid manufacturers, investors, customers and analysts, who described how breakthroughs in developing robot "brains" will allow these metallic machines to go from mere spectacles to productive and autodidact workers that could revolutionize the world's pre-eminent manufacturing power. | Reuters ($)

✈️ Aviation & Space

A new bipartisan bill aims to lift the 52-year ban on supersonic flight. U.S. lawmakers introduced the Supersonic Aviation Modernization Act in a bid to revise the FAA’s 52-year ban on supersonic flight over U.S. soil. The bipartisan legislation — introduced by Senator Ted Budd (R-NC), Aviation Subcommittee Chair Troy Nehls (R-TX), and Representative Sharice Davids (D-KS) — would allow supersonic travel, provided no audible sonic boom reaches the ground. Dubbed the “Boom” bill, the move comes as Colorado-based Boom Supersonic makes progress in developing next-generation supersonic aircraft. Boom’s XB-1 demonstrator aircraft made history in January when it became the first privately developed civil aircraft to break the sound barrier over the continental United States. | TechCrunch ($)

Fighter jets tend to be categorized by their age, features and sophistication. The first generation appeared in the 1940s and 1950s. Many of those in NATO service today, like America’s ubiquitous F-16, are fourth-generation ones, built from the 1970s to the 1990s. The latest fifth-generation planes, such as the F-35 and F-22, the latter perhaps the leading fighter jet in operation today, tend to enjoy stealth, the capacity for sustained supersonic flight and advanced computer systems. By comparison with earlier planes, the sixth generation of jets all have one thing in common—they’re big. Early images of the F-47 have been heavily obscured and edited, and might bear little resemblance to the final plane. But photos of the J-36 and models of the Tempest indicate aircraft far larger than the fourth-generation Chinese J-20 and European Typhoon or fifth-gen American F-35 and F-22. The similarity suggests that all these countries have similar prognoses about the future of war in the air. One shift they all predict is more, and better, surface-to-air missile systems, a lesson reinforced by the strong performance of air defenses in Ukraine. That requires more stealth to keep planes hidden from enemy radar. Stealth, in turn, requires smooth surfaces—bombs and missiles cannot hang off the wing, but must be tucked away inside a larger body. | The Economist ($)

DoorDash and Wing, the global leader in residential drone delivery, are introducing drone delivery to Charlotte, NC for the first time. Eligible DoorDash customers within about four miles of The Arboretum Shopping Center in southern Charlotte can order from a selection of local and national restaurants and choose to have their items delivered by drone. | DoorDash

📚 Investing

Peter Walker of Carta highlights a sobering trend: Fewer startups are graduating from Seed to Series A, with conversion rates declining steadily since 2021, regardless of sector or region. Only 38% of startups that raised Seed in Q1 2021 reached Series A in three years. Newer cohorts are tracking even lower. Series A benchmarks have gotten harder. “Nice” traction doesn’t cut it anymore unless you’re a repeat founder or an AI outlier. More founders are either stuck raising bridge rounds or trying to avoid further fundraising altogether, fueling an oversupply of seed-stage startups. | Carta

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1992 Jaguar XJ220. | Bonhams Cars

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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Steve was honored to present at ASOTU CON 2025 last week.

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Steve moderated a discussion on the state of automotive venture capital: with Brian Donnelly from Autotech Ventures, Chase Fraser from FM Capital, and Bill Cariss from Holman.

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📺 In The News

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we discuss how the advancement of Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs) will dramatically increase customer loyalty and drive more profitability for auto dealers. | CBT News ($)

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