Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | May 25 2026 | VIEW ONLINE

Steve's keynote speech from last week's ASOTU-CON Conference. How will automotive dealers leverage AI to perform at the level of the top 10% of all dealers? | LINK

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

Carvana is testing whether its digitally focused playbook can work in the more tightly regulated world of selling new cars, where politically powerful dealers run the show and state laws protect their business model. Carvana’s expansion represents the latest in a number of challenges to the traditional way new vehicles are sold in the U.S. Amazon.com, in partnership with old-school dealers, is also trying to sell new cars on its website. Scout Motors, a new automaker backed by Volkswagen, is trying to go around dealers altogether by selling directly to consumers like EV-only players Tesla and Rivian. Getting into the new-car game required Carvana to become a dealer itself. Carvana acquired a Casa Grande, Ariz., Stellantis dealership about a year ago from another dealer group. It has since turned the small store on the outskirts of Phoenix into the top-selling Chrysler, Jeep, Ram and Dodge dealer in the U.S. as of April, according to Stellantis figures shared with dealers and seen by The Wall Street Journal. The store is selling about 350 vehicles a month, compared with 30 to 50 monthly before Carvana took over. For now, Stellantis—the parent of Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram—is the only automaker to have allowed Carvana to become one of its franchised dealers. The move isn’t sitting well with the traditional dealers who sell those brands. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Borrowing costs for everyday Americans are climbing as a global bond sell-off drives up the price the United States pays to borrow money, reflecting investor fears about surging inflation and the nation’s growing debt burden. On Tuesday, Treasury yields on the 30-year bond climbed to the highest point since 2007, before settling around 5.18 percent. Perhaps more significantly for cash-strapped Americans, the 10-year Treasury note, which serves as a benchmark that influences mortgage rates, auto loans and credit card borrowing costs, rose to its highest level since January 2025, about 4.68 percent, before declining slightly. For would-be home buyers, the pain is already arriving. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 6.75 percent on Tuesday, its highest level since late July, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates have risen nearly half of a percentage point since mid-April. Car buyers are feeling the squeeze, too. The average interest rate on a new-auto loan hit 9.45 percent in April, according to Cox Automotive Inc., pushing the typical monthly payment on a new vehicle to $757. | The Washington Post ($)

There is no better avatar for the perilous state of the global auto industry right now than Honda Motor Co. The highly regarded Japanese automaker posted a $2.6 billion loss on May 14 — its first annual loss since the company went public in 1957, six years before the motorcycle and small-engine manufacturer sold its first car. Honda’s troubles are not unique. Automakers globally find themselves financially squeezed on all sides. They’ve spent more than a decade chasing expensive electrification and automated driving technologies while enduring production shortages from a global pandemic that lowered output and raised input costs. Legacy global automakers are facing unprecedented levels of competition from both an overcapacitized China and fledgling electric vehicle makers. | Automotive News ($)

According to the National Right to Work Committee, between 2011 and 2021, right-to-work states saw private-sector manufacturing employment grow by 9.3 percent — a gain of more than 400,000 jobs — while states without right-to-work protections shed a net 29,000 jobs over the same period. Manufacturers are not fleeing the country; they are fleeing union contracts. The history of foreign automakers’ investment decisions is a perfect example of unions driving manufacturing south. For most of the 20th century, foreign manufacturers who wanted American production had little choice but to build where the industry already was, i.e., Michigan and Ohio, where the United Auto Workers Union was entrenched and pattern bargaining was the price of entry. Then right-to-work spread through the South, and the calculus changed entirely. Toyota Motor Corporation opened a plant in Georgetown, Kentucky, in 1986. BMW Group US opened a plant in Spartanburg County, South Carolina, in 1994. Mercedes-Benz AG moved to Vance, Alabama, in 1997. Volkswagen started production in Chattanooga, Tennessee, in 2011. This history represents independent decisions made over three decades, and every one landed in a right-to-work state. These were not companies afraid of American workers; their plants were productive, well-compensated and globally competitive. What they avoided were the rigid work rules, jurisdictional boundaries and adversarial grievance processes embedded in union contracts that make it financially complicated to adopt new technology or restructure a production floor. | The Washington Post ($)

A study by Elina Yweon Hur of Temple University and her co-authors asks how the order in which options are presented affects consumers’ commitment to the choices they make. Plenty of people signal interest in a purchase—adding items to an online basket, say, or taking a car for a test drive—but then fail to act on these apparent preferences. The researchers find that consumers are more likely to follow through on a transaction if they encounter their chosen option later rather than sooner; property buyers, for example, seem to be more committed to their preferred home when they encounter it deep into a tour of potential purchases. The authors reckon that the effort spent searching for the right option is what increases this sense of commitment; people feel that the time they have invested has been worthwhile. Being first is not always best. | ResearchGate

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EVs

Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids are expected to make up nearly 30 percent of global car sales this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast, as the Middle East energy crisis and lower battery costs boost demand. The response by drivers to rising fuel prices was expected to propel sales, with a caveat that the impact on the global economy of the Iran war could damp consumer spending, the latest agency report said. Growth was highlighted in Europe, where sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids are expected to rise about 20 percent in 2026, accounting for one in three cars sold, the IEA estimated. Global sales of electric cars rose 20 percent year on year to more than 20mn in 2025, accounting for a quarter of all new cars sold worldwide. That figure is expected to reach 23mn this year as sales increase more than 50 percent in the Asia-Pacific region and 45 percent in Latin America. | Financial Times ($)

All that doom and gloom about the state of the electric vehicle market? That’s just an American problem. The rest of the world can’t get enough EVs, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). EV sales surpassed 20 million units last year, capturing 25% of the global market. Growth was highest in China, and market share in other regions has also been picking up pace. In Latin America, for example, sales grew by 75%. Meanwhile, sales in the U.S. are stagnant, with EVs hovering around 10% market share. The EV market has gone K-shaped, and automakers of all stripes — legacy and startup — had better pay attention. | TechCrunch ($)The 2027 Chevrolet Bolt is marketed as “America’s most affordable EV,” but to get that title, General Motors had to find some clever solutions. One of those was to fit modern components under a body that shares a lot of components with the previous-generation Bolt EUV. But that’s what people can see. To make a 262-mile EV with decent charging specs, hands-free driving capabilities, and a sub-$30,000 price tag, GM was forced to get creative on the assembly line, too. Usually, cars go on the manufacturing line in VIN order, which means multiple trims, colors, and options have to be fitted by workers in a short amount of time. This increases the risk of something going wrong—and if the line has to stop, the money stops flowing. To get around this issue, the 2027 Bolt is assembled in batches of 30 identical cars at the Fairfax plant in Kansas City. According to General Motors, this “Winning with Simplicity” approach has so far managed to reduce complexity and costs, and, at the same time, boost productivity and quality. Workers know they no longer have to reach for different parts trays from one car to another, ensuring that vehicles don’t have to be pulled off the line to repair mistakes. Even if that happens, though, the automaker has another ace up its sleeve—the “clone” process. For every configuration, the plant holds back two bodies, so that if a vehicle is removed from the assembly line for a quality issue, its matching “clone” can take its place on the line, and manufacturing can keep moving forward. | InsideEVs

Like any champion who spends too long at the top, the lithium-ion battery is stagnating. Over decades as the battery of choice in everything from smartphones to electric cars and drones, its design has been tweaked countless times to improve its energy density and performance. But, some scientists say, those improvements are approaching their theoretical limits. Even the best models are prone to dying out in the cold, rapidly losing capacity or—as is the case for those in household devices—spontaneously catching fire. At the same time, demand for batteries has never been greater. 30% of cars sold in 2026 are expected to be electric vehicles (EVs) which rely on them for power. Last year American homes and businesses installed a record number of big batteries. According to Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, by the end of the decade installations could rise by almost 40%. Worthy challengers are desperately needed. Advances in materials science are at last bringing some within reach. Battery-builders are modifying existing materials and creating novel combinations to design batteries that store more energy while being safer and more stable than anything on the market today. The lithium-ion battery’s crown may be up for grabs. Solid-state batteries are among the most exciting alternatives. When a conventional lithium-ion battery is charged, lithium ions migrate from the cathode to the anode; when it is discharged, they return. The medium the ions shuttle through is called the electrolyte, usually a flammable, organic solvent soaked into all of a battery’s components. In solid-state batteries, however, the anode, cathode and electrolyte are compressed together as slabs. This means more conductive materials can be packed into the same space, allowing for energy densities as high as 500 watt-hours per kilogram (Wh/kg), compared with about 300Wh/kg for liquid electrolytes. They are also less likely to combust. | The Economist ($)

House lawmakers made public a massive transportation bill that would impose new fees on electric vehicles as gasoline prices surge following the Iran war. The roughly $580 billion legislation, released as part of a deal between Democratic and Republican members of the House transportation committee, would impose an annual registration fee of $130, gradually rising biennially to $150, per electric vehicle and as much as $50 for hybrids. Committee leaders said in a statement the levy was needed to ensure all highway users “pay their share” as part of an effort to supplant the gas tax to help pay for transportation projects. The proposal drew criticism from environmental groups, including Evergreen Action, which argued the measure would discourage drivers from purchasing electric vehicles. | Bloomberg ($)

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China

Nissan is considering using Chinese-developed platforms for future European electric models as it seeks to slash costs in a region where it has lost money and market share for years, CEO Ivan Espinosa said. The Japanese manufacturer is looking to end its longstanding practice of developing models solely for Europe as it continues lose market share to new brands. “The competition is getting more and more severe with Chinese players,” Espinosa told the Financial Times’ Future of the Car conference in London on May 14. “Traditionally we were investing a lot on specific products for Europe. With the scale that we have, it has proven not sustainable.” | Automotive News ($)

Stellantis and China's Dongfeng Automobile plan to form a joint venture in Europe, including potential production in France, the companies said on Wednesday, offering another glimpse into the French-Italian automaker's longer-term strategy. The two groups signed a preliminary agreement that will cover sales and distribution, manufacturing, purchasing and engineering activities focused on Dongfeng's new energy vehicles. The JV will be owned 51% by Stellantis and 49% by Dongfeng. Stellantis already has a joint venture with its other Chinese partner, Leapmotor, the scope of which is set to expand beyond distribution into manufacturing, with plans to jointly build two models in Spain and possibly later transfer ownership of a Stellantis factory in the country to the JV. | The Detroit News ($)

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Autonomy & Robotics

This may be the future for many cities as Waymo and other AV providers add to their fleet. When not in use, where will the cars loiter? | Automotive News ($)

A working paper by Danial Salman of the University of Washington looks at whether and how people respond pre-emptively to fear of job displacement. To be more specific, he analyzed how the testing of autonomous vehicles has influenced the behaviour of American households. Places in California with deployments of self-driving vehicles have seen a fall in commercial driver licensing compared with zip codes that don’t (the reason for focusing on commercial drivers is that long stretches of highway driving may make them especially vulnerable to displacement). Indirect exposure to autonomous vehicles also seems to have an impact. Changes in commercial-driving licences in particular areas of New York were associated with the strength of social media connections to other parts of the state where these vehicles were being tested. If your friends are talking about self-driving cars, in other words, you are more likely to change your own behavior. The research isn’t peer-reviewed, and people’s assumptions about the risk of job displacement may turn out to be wrong. But the idea that automation anxiety shows up in labor markets before jobs are actually affected is important, as anyone who knows a recent graduate can testify. | Danial Salman

China's deployment of humanoid robots could offset as much as 60% of its projected decline in the labor force by 2035, according to Barclays. The workforce might shrink by 37 million within the next decade, constraining a manufacturing sector that accounts for roughly a quarter of China's economy. China's cumulative installed stock of humanoid robots could approach about 24 million units by 2035, under scenarios Barclays calls optimistic. | Bloomberg ($)

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Aviation & Space

The SpaceX S-1 filing is now available. Lots of pretty photos. That's a lot of TAM from "Enterprise Applications" which are defined as: "We leverage our leading frontier models and compute infrastructure to deliver consumer and enterprise applications. Together with Tesla, we are also developing Macrohard, an agentic AI platform designed to be capable of fully emulating digital workflows and augmenting human operation of computers using sophisticated autonomous agents. We believe Macrohard will have the potential to fundamentally transform how companies are structured and operate, thereby allowing dramatic increases in human productivity." | SEC

The mission of SpaceX is to “make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” Starlink was born of more earthly concerns. “What’s needed to create a city on Mars? Well, one thing’s for sure: a lot of money,” Elon Musk said in 2015 at the launch event for his latest moonshot. “So we need things that will generate a lot of money.” Musk laid out his radical vision of the future long before SpaceX had its sights on the biggest IPO in history. Even then, he knew that rockets alone wouldn’t get his company to Mars. His only hope of establishing society on a freezing rock far, far away was blasting thousands of satellites into orbit. A decade later, Starlink is now generating enough money to bankroll a company that burns through it at warp speed. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Leaders of three of the biggest U.S. public pension systems said they have major concerns over SpaceX's "extreme" ownership and control set-up in its upcoming public stock listing, urging founder and CEO Elon Musk to remove provisions that would curb shareholder protections. The officials - representing three of the top four largest public pension plans in the U.S. - objected to the amount of power the board has given Musk over the company, including voting control over the stock, veto power over his own removal as CEO, and protections from litigation, including mandatory arbitration for SpaceX shareholder claims. The IPO "would constitute the most management-favorable governance structure ever brought to the U.S. public markets at ⁠this scale," they wrote in the letter addressed to Musk, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, and SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen, citing reporting by Reuters and other media organizations on the company's confidential registration statement filed with securities regulators. The pension leaders also flagged Musk's sprawling corporate empire as a potential problem. His simultaneous leadership of Tesla, X, xAI, The Boring Company and Neuralink - combined with extraordinary multi-year compensation packages at SpaceX and Tesla - puts the latter two companies "in the unusual position of essentially competing against one another" for his time and attention, they wrote. "Long-term shareholders, under the reported governance structure, will have no independent board majority, no functioning derivative remedy and no entitlement to true judicial review through which to address the conflicts that this concentration of roles will inevitably produce," they wrote. | Reuters ($)

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1985 Lamborghini Countach LP5000 QV 'Downdraft' by Bertone. | RM Sotheby's

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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Steve was at ASOTU-CON last week to discuss how the Chinese automakers might enter the U.S. market.

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