Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | May 5 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

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Automotive

President Trump moved to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he has imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the U.S. The 25% tariff on finished foreign-made cars went into effect early this month. Trump’s tariffs on China, however, will continue applying on top of auto and parts tariffs. The administration also modified its tariffs on foreign auto parts—slated to be 25% and effective May 3—allowing automakers to be reimbursed for those tariffs up to an amount equal to 3.75% of the value of a U.S.-made car for one year. The reimbursement would fall to 2.5% of the car’s value in a second year, and then be phased out altogether. The administration calculated the offset by applying 25% auto parts tariff to 15% of the value of a U.S.-assembled automobile in the first year, equaling 3.75% of the car’s value. In the second year, the offset is calculated by applying the 25% tariffs to 10% of the value of a U.S. assembled automobile, yielding 2.5% of the car’s value. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

The United States imposed 25% tariffs on imported auto parts on Saturday that could sharply raise prices for new and used vehicles as well as for repairs and insurance. The latest tariffs, which President Trump ordered in March as part of his plan to promote domestic manufacturing, come after the 25% levies on imported cars that took effect in early April. This second round of duties on imported parts will have a broader impact because even cars made in the United States often have engines, transmissions, batteries or other components produced in other countries. The administration said on Tuesday that the tariffs were intended “to protect national security by incentivizing domestic automobile production and reducing American reliance on imports of foreign automobiles and their parts.” | The Wall Street Journal ($)

President Donald Trump offered some tariff-related relief for the auto industry on Tuesday, but one major analyst thinks the damage is already done. Trump signed an executive order that prevents tariffs from “stacking” on top of one another. In other words, automakers already subjected to the newly administered 25% levy on auto imports will not also have to pay a 25% duty on steel and aluminum, or on imports from Mexico and Canada. Another executive order will allow carmakers to get partially reimbursed for the tariffs they pay over the next two years. But Wedbush analysts Daniel Ives and Sam Brandeis think this is too little, too late. “While this sounds good on paper (less bad then the original auto tariff slate), a U.S. car with all U.S. parts made in the U.S. is a fictional tale not possible today and many factories/production hubs could take 4-5 years to build in the U.S.,” they wrote in a note Tuesday. They called the current tariff situation “untenable” for the auto industry, adding that many “U.S. made” cars import over 40% of their parts from abroad. The analysts believe that the average sticker price will rise by between $5,000 and $10,000 once automakers run through their pre-tariff inventory. “This continues to be a Twilight Zone situation for the entire automaker industry which continues to be paralyzed further cost increases and uncertainties that will change the paradigm for the U.S. auto industry for years to come [if] this stays into effect,” they wrote. “We believe the auto tariffs in their current form adds up to $100 billion of costs annually to the auto industry and will essentially get passed directly onto the consumer and clearly erode demand on Day 1 of tariffs.” | QuartzThe Automotive News Editorial Board argues that extended auto loan terms are a costly mortgage of the industry’s future: "Just as we noted that unaffordable new-vehicle options were likely to create inadvertent political pressure to open the U.S. market to less expensive Chinese-manufactured vehicles, we believe increased new-vehicle loan terms also have a deleterious impact on the U.S. auto market. Longer terms mean more interest paid and less equity built for borrowers, which translates to reduced ability to purchase another new vehicle later. It is not a recipe for the future success of automakers or dealers." | Automotive News ($)President Trump has created what could be called a Luddite trap for the American auto industry: His tariffs aim to protect it from foreign competition, while his domestic policies threaten to cut it off from innovation. Together, they risk leaving U.S. automakers isolated and incapable of competing on their own merits as foreign companies bolt ahead. The damage to our economy and national security could be profound. For over a century, the auto industry has been a cornerstone of America’s industrial power: It revolutionized manufacturing with the assembly line, forged stronger forms of steel, aluminum and carbon fiber and drove technological innovation with the invention of sophisticated robotics and sensors. And because the auto industry’s influence extends far beyond the factory, supporting vast supply chains, restaurants and retail stores, it’s also been a key driver of economic opportunity in the industrial Midwest and beyond. But today U.S. automakers are falling behind in a global race for innovation in electrification, digitization and automation. China has made huge strides in producing next-generation vehicles, backed by billions in state subsidies intended to undercut competitors and dominate global manufacturing. While Tesla specifically has led in battery and automation innovation, the scale and quality of China’s manufacturing are putting America’s entire auto industry at risk. If we lose the supply chains, workers and industrial capabilities that produce the cars we drive, we may also lose our capacity to manufacture vital technologies and military equipment. | The New York Times ($)Only 23 cars, or 14% of new car inventory in the US, cost less than $30,000, according to Cars Commerce’s Q1 2025 Auto Market Review, as affordable cars become increasingly rare in America. All but three of those — the Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, and the soon-to-be-discontinued Chevrolet Malibu — are produced outside the U.S., according to Cars Commerce. That means prices are only likely to go up with the Trump administration’s tariffs. | SherwoodAbout a month ago, with Tesla’s stock sinking and some investors irritated about Elon Musk’s White House focus, Tesla’s board got serious about looking for Musk’s successor. Board members reached out to several executive search firms to work on a formal process for finding Tesla’s next chief executive, according to people familiar with the discussions. Tensions had been mounting at the company. Sales and profits were deteriorating rapidly. Musk was spending much of his time in Washington. Around that time, Tesla’s board met with Musk for an update. Board members told him he needed to spend more time on Tesla, according to people familiar with the meeting. And he needed to say so publicly. Musk didn’t push back. | The Wall Street Journal ($)Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has denied a report that the board is seeking to replace chief executive Elon Musk in response to plunging sales and a widespread backlash against his alliance with U.S. President Donald Trump. Denholm was responding to a The Wall Street Journal report that the board had contacted headhunters to recruit his successor after growing concerned about the time he was spending in Washington. | Financial Times ($)Tesla, Nissan and makers of products as diverse as children’s lunch boxes and luxury mattresses are among the businesses urging shoppers to make purchases before Donald Trump’s tariffs hit prices, as advertisers prey on consumer fears that the White House’s trade policy will soon hit their wallets. Trump’s trade war has hammered global stock markets and brought warnings of inflation and even a recession in the US economy. But for some companies, the crisis is an opportunity to sell more inventory. | Financial Times ($)The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) is investigating whether Sony Honda Mobility’s direct-to-consumer distribution plan for its Afeela 1 electric sedan violates a state franchise law. The joint venture between the Japanese automotive and electronics giants said in January it will sell the first sedan from its Afeela brand through its website and forgo using a traditional dealer network. California law requires affiliated brands of established automakers to use franchises to sell and service vehicles. Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, told Automotive News the group will be looking into whether Sony Honda Mobility is directly affiliated with Honda. | Automotive News ($)Tariff-related new vehicle buying lifted sales over the past two months to a seasonally adjusted annual selling rate of 17.6 million, well above the roughly 16.0 million they would have totaled otherwise. There was some indication that the surge was decelerating by the end of the month, probably due to tariff “exuberance” starting to dry up and because of a drain to inventory. There was more strength, in general, in demand for fullsize and luxury-segment trucks than for more affordable vehicles, including cars and small and midsize CUVs and SUVs. | Wards Auto ($)Jim Roche from WarrCloud notes that a franchise dealership's traditional manual process of handling warranty claims is outdated. By leveraging automation and expert-driven solutions to handle claims in an accurate, efficient and streamlined way, dealerships can realize profit gains previously lost to bad workflows. Dealers leveraging AI solutions for warranty claims and other back-office processes report measurable reductions in expenses and improvement in profits. | Automotive News ($)S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) announced its intent to separate S&P Global Mobility from S&P Global to drive long-term value creation. The planned separation is expected to result in Mobility becoming a standalone public company. Mobility is an automotive data and technology leader with three divisions – Used Vehicle Sales & Service (including CARFAX), Strategy & Product Planning and New Vehicle Sales & Marketing. Evolving dynamics, including growing consumer demand for vehicle information, the rise of electrification and software-defined vehicles, direct-to-customer retail models and the supply chain disruptions related to tariffs are driving an increased need for Mobility's data and decisioning tools. With trusted, market-leading brands such as CARFAX, automotiveMastermind Inc., Polk Automotive Solutions and Market Scan, unique data sets and demonstrated resilience through business cycles, Mobility is well positioned to meet customer demand in the fast-moving environment. In fiscal year 2024, the Mobility segment generated $1.6 billion in revenue, a year-over-year increase of approximately 8%. | S&P Global

⚡️ EVs

Hyundai MOBIS, the parts manufacturing arm of Hyundai Motor Group, has developed technology that can extinguish an electric vehicle battery cell fire and prevent thermal runaway. The system works by spraying a fire suppressant to extinguish a fire within five minutes of ignition, before it can move to adjacent cells and spark thermal runaway, a process through which heat continues to increase in a self-reinforcing chain reaction. Hyundai said the new technology is the first to prevent thermal runaway, not just delay it, with the use of heat-resistant materials. Sensors monitor battery temperature and voltage in real-time, and software commands when and where the fire extinguisher should be sprayed. | Automotive DiveTesla plans to deploy a public charging network for its Tesla Semi truck, starting with 46 stations in 2027, according to a new presentation. At a new presentation at the ACT Expo / ACT News this week, Tesla’s head of the Semi program, Dan Priestley, revealed several new details about the long-awaited electric semi-truck. During the presentation, Priesley claimed that Tesla Semi trucks have already cumulatively traveled 7.9 million miles (12.7 million km). He didn’t disclose how many trucks contributed to this total mileage, but he did add that “more than 26 Tesla Semi trucks” have each traveled over 100,000 miles.” | Electrek

🇨🇳 China

President Donald Trump’s effort to revitalize U.S. manufacturing with sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods may hit a snag: American factories depend on machines and components from China. China is the largest machine exporter in the world, and the United States is the largest machine importer, with China providing 17 percent of U.S. machinery imports in 2023, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. Machine components like bearings and gears, as well as hydraulic systems that contain pumps and valves, can be sourced at scale only from China, according to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), a U.S. trade group. | The Washington Post ($)The U.S. plans to start charging large Chinese ships millions of dollars to call at its ports, deepening the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. China is one of the biggest players in global shipping, so a significant portion of the merchant fleet that carries more than 80% of world trade needs to grapple with the changes. Multiple exemptions offer some wiggle room, and the industry is likely to adjust its activities to minimize the charges. The measures are designed to restore U.S. shipbuilding and address what Washington calls China’s unreasonable moves to “dominate the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors.” However, for the U.S. to truly compete with China on shipping, it has a long way to go: China’s shipping order book stood recently at 250 million deadweight tons (DWT), compared with just 200,000 tons for the U.S., according to figures from Clarkson Research Services Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. | Bloomberg ($)For an American used to a $50,000 gasoline-powered SUV as the standard family choice, the Chinese market is hardly recognizable. A majority of new vehicles sold in China are either fully electric or plug-in hybrids, and a look around the recent auto show in Shanghai showed that local makers have mostly stopped introducing new gasoline-powered models. In the U.S., by contrast, the traditional combustion engine still powers about eight in 10 new vehicles. Most Chinese buyers these days are buying a local brand. Some, such as BYD, have begun to gain international recognition, but the malls are filled with dealers that offer brands virtually unknown abroad—ZEEKR, Lynk & Co, Aion, Aito and many more. The price difference is overwhelming. Chinese car buyers no longer need to debate whether an EV can be made affordable, not when a decent starter model costs $10,000 and a luxury seven-seater with reclining massage chairs can be had for $50,000. Because of customer demand, even the low-end models come with advanced driver-assistance software. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

🤖

Autonomy & Robotics

Waymo has released new research saying that its driverless robotaxis reduce pedestrian- and cyclist-involved collisions by 82%-92%, and crashes that involve an injury by 96%, when compared to the average driver. Waymo has been operating its autonomous, driverless Level 4 robotaxis for several years now, and is continuing to (slowly) roll them out to more metro areas in the US. They’ve been operating in Phoenix since 2019 in some capacity, and entered San Francisco in 2022, Los Angeles in 2023, and Austin, Texas in 2024, plus they’ve just started testing in Atlanta, Georgia. In that time, the company has racked up 56.7 million miles of operation, allowing it to have a big enough sample to start understanding how its driving capabilities compare to the overall vehicle fleet. | ElectrekToyota and Waymo said have agreed to explore a collaboration on speeding up the development and deployment of autonomous driving technology. The two companies in a joint statement said they aim to combine respective strengths to develop an autonomous vehicle platform, while also exploring ways to enhance next-generation personally owned vehicles (POVs). The firms said they will discuss the possibility of expanding the scope of their cooperation, adding that Toyota’s autonomous driving technology unit Woven by Toyota will join the potential collaboration. Earlier this month, Waymo started collecting data in Tokyo with test rides operated by human drivers to map key areas of the Japanese capital and get a better understanding of local infrastructure and driving patterns. Woven by Toyota is developing an automotive software platform, Arene, and building a testing site named Woven City for mobility-related systems and services in Shizuoka Prefecture, west of Tokyo. | Automotive News ($)Rule changes announced by the Trump administration last week could allow automakers to report fewer crashes involving self-driving cars, with Tesla potentially emerging as the main beneficiary. The U.S. Department of Transportation announced Thursday that it will no longer require automakers to report certain kinds of non-fatal crashes — but the exception will apply only to partial self-driving vehicles using so-called Level 2 systems, the kind Tesla deploys. Tesla CEO Elon Musk had complained the old reporting rules cast his company in a bad light. If Tesla and other automakers are required to report fewer crashes into a national database, that could make it more difficult for regulators to catch equipment defects and for the public to access information about a company’s overall safety, auto industry analysts say. It will also allow Tesla to trumpet a cleaner record to sell more cars. | APAutonomous vehicle technology startup Aurora Innovations says it has successfully launched a self-driving truck service in Texas, making it the first company to deploy driverless, heavy-duty trucks for commercial use on public roads in the U.S. Aurora says it began running freight this week between Dallas and Houston with its launch customers Hirschbach Motor Lines and Uber Freight, and that it has completed 1,200 miles in a single self-driving truck without a driver so far. The company plans to build up to “tens of self-driving trucks” and expand to El Paso and Phoenix by the end of 2025. Aurora will also continue to haul “more than 100 loads of commercial freight” for customers every week with a fleet of more than 30 supervised autonomous trucks, according to a company spokesperson. | TechCrunch ($)

The World Economic Forum and the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) have published their forecast for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). | World Economic Forum

✈️ Connectivity

Automakers are increasingly pushing consumers to accept monthly and annual fees to unlock preinstalled safety and performance features, from hands-free driving systems and heated seats to cameras that can automatically record accident situations. But the additional levels of internet connectivity this subscription model requires can increase drivers’ exposure to government surveillance and the likelihood of being caught up in police investigations. A cache of more than two dozen police records recently reviewed by WIRED show US law enforcement agencies regularly trained on how to take advantage of “connected cars,” with subscription-based features drastically increasing the amount of data that can be accessed during investigations. The records make clear that law enforcement’s knowledge of the surveillance far exceeds that of the public and reveal how corporate policies and technologies—not the law—determine driver privacy. | WIREDThe battle over who owns and controls your driving data is being fought in court. General Motors is facing a multi-district lawsuit that claims the Detroit-based automaker allegedly violated its customers’s privacy by collecting and selling their driving information without proper consent. However, GM is arguing it did not violate their privacy because “driving a vehicle—which necessarily involves conduct that takes place on public roads—cannot form the basis for any privacy-based claim.” According to GM’s filing to dismiss the case, “states do not permit invasion of privacy claims that are based on public conduct,” even though specific state laws vary regarding invasion of privacy claims. In Georgia, where this case is filed, observing someone “in a public place is not an intrusion upon one’s privacy.” Also, many states follow the Restatement of Torts, which says that observing a person’s public conduct, even on a “public highway,” cannot constitute a violation of that person’s policy because their “conduct is public and open to the public eye.” | motor1.com

🚎 Public Transport

When Covid-19 broke the US economy, the trains and buses that carried millions of Americans to work every day emptied out. A $70 billion lifeline from the federal government kept them going — a bet that someday they would again be packed with commuters. Five years later, that day has come. Workers and tourists are back on the rails and roads. Throngs of straphangers stand shoulder-to-shoulder on the subway. Finding a seat on a crowded rush-hour express train feels like a small victory. For transportation systems from New York to Chicago to San Francisco, it should be a moment to exhale. Faced with extinction, they survived. Yet there has been no time for celebration. No longer flush with emergency aid, the biggest systems are facing a combined $6 billion shortfall for years to come, according to an analysis by Bloomberg News. While ridership across the country has improved, it hasn’t yet returned to its pre-Covid peak. That’s a big problem for services that rely on the fares paid by riders to fund their operations. To close the gap, many mass-transit authorities are preparing to increase fares, cut service, or both — steps that transit advocates fear could lead to a “death spiral.”. | Bloomberg ($)

✈️ Supply Chain

Remember the trade disruptions from the pandemic? All those supply-and-demand imbalances that bedeviled ports in Southern California? Something similar could soon return. That’s because President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese imports have led to a sharp drop in US-bound cargo. There are currently about 40 cargo ships sailing across the Pacific from China, down by roughly 40% from early April, a Bloomberg analysis found. When companies around the country seek to replenish inventories, their canceled orders mean the goods won’t be there when they’re needed, according to an assessment that Walmart, The Home Depot and Target executives delivered to Trump last week. | Bloomberg ($)While high tariffs on Chinese products have been in place since early April, the availability of Chinese products and the price that consumers pay for them has not changed that much. But some companies are now starting to raise their prices. And experts say that the effects will become more and more obvious in the coming weeks, as a tidal wave of change stemming from canceled orders in Chinese factories works its way around the world to the United States. The number of massive container ships carrying metal boxes of toys, furniture and other products departing China for the United States has plummeted by about a third this month. The reason consumers haven’t felt many of the effects yet is because it takes 20 to 40 days for a container ship to travel across the Pacific Ocean. It then takes another one to 10 days for Chinese goods to make their way by train or truck to various cities around the country, economists at Apollo Global Management, Inc. wrote in a recent report. That means that the higher tariffs on China that went into effect at the beginning of April are just starting to result in a drop in the number of ships arriving at American ports, a trend that should intensify. By late May or early June, consumers could start to see some empty shelves, and layoffs could occur for retailers and logistics industries. The major effects on the U.S. economy of shutting down trade with China will start to become apparent in the summer of 2025, when the United States might slip into a recession, said Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo. | The New York Times ($)Layoffs and bankruptcies hit multiple sectors of the supply chain throughout April, as new or soon-to-be-imposed tariffs continue to weigh on freight markets. | Freightwaves

Ryan Petersen, the founder and chief executive of Flexport, which helps companies move all kinds of stuff from wherever it’s made to wherever it’s sold, is explaining to anyone who will listen why hefty U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could be catastrophic for America’s small businesses. “If they don’t change the tariffs, it’s going to be an extinction-level, asteroid-wiping-out-the-dinosaurs kind of event. Only these aren’t dinosaurs. These are dynamic, healthy businesses.” He knows this because those businesses are his customers. They use Flexport to transport products from the factory to your front door. Petersen’s company handles everything from booking space on planes, trucks and enormous ocean carriers to managing all the tedious paperwork along the way. It’s a sleek tech platform that gives Petersen a window into the entire global economy, providing a real-time look at the situation on the ground and on the water. He can track exactly how much it costs to ship any item anywhere—and how much more it costs because of tariffs. His company has visibility into about 1% of U.S. trade, he said, which is more than enough data for him to connect dots. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Amazon Logistics delivered 6.3 billion parcels across the US in 2024, up 7.3% from the year before and second only to the United States Postal Service’s 6.9 billion figure. Amazon now looks clear as the biggest private delivery business in America, taking an impressive 28% share of the market, while UPS and FedEx have both declined in recent years. | Sherwood

✈️ Aviation & Space

The travel and tourism industry, which accounts for about 3% of the U.S. GDP, has long been one of the economy’s most robust sectors, particularly when it comes to trade: The U.S. had posted a trade surplus in travel every year this century. Until this year. A drop in foreign visitors to the U.S. caused the real value of exports of travel services to fall at a 7.8% annual rate in the first quarter, according to the GDP report released Wednesday. The U.S. Travel Association says the United States is now running an annual travel trade deficit of $50 billion, compared with a $3.5 billion surplus in 2022. | QuartzThe past several weeks might have been tumultuous or even existential for a lot of U.S. businesses caught up in trade wars, but they’ve been pretty darn good for Starlink, the satellite company owned by Elon Musk. After years of regulatory holdups, Starlink reached distribution deals in March with two giant internet providers in India, the world’s most populous country, and won approval in neighboring Pakistan as well. Another of America’s major trade partners, Vietnam, waived a rule that required Starlink to partner with a domestic company and said it would launch a five-year pilot program with Starlink. Bangladesh, the second-largest exporter of garments to the U.S., just announced its own deal with Starlink after months of stalled negotiations. And in Lesotho, officials brushed aside long-standing objections to Starlink’s foreign ownership and granted the company a license. | The Washington Post ($)

The US Army is embarking on its largest overhaul since the end of the Cold War, with plans to equip each of its combat divisions with around 1,000 drones and to shed outmoded weapons and other equipment. The plan, the product of more than a year of experimentation at this huge training range in Bavaria and other U.S. bases, draws heavily on lessons from the war in Ukraine, where small unmanned aircraft used in large numbers have transformed the battlefield. The Army’s 10 active-duty divisions would shift heavily into unmanned aircraft if the plan is carried out, using them for surveillance, to move supplies and to carry out attacks. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

📚 Climate

President Trump has expressed little interest in fighting climate change. One of his key cabinet officials has even sought to evaluate whether humanity benefits from a warming climate, in a bid to undermine environmental rules. Yet even as he works to accelerate oil and gas production, Mr. Trump’s economic approach may inadvertently reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as consumption slows in response to a global trade war. Carbon emissions, largely a byproduct of going places and making things, have always been tethered to economic growth. Forecasters increasingly anticipate that Mr. Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs could tip the economy into recession as companies and consumers cut spending in the face of higher prices for imported goods. | They New York Times ($)

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1985 Ferrari 288 GTO. | Tom Hartley JNR

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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