Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Nov 18 2024 | VIEW ONLINE ➡️

What are the three things that we have to see before making an investment? |

What We're Reading:

🚗 Automotive

Automaker stocks fell Thursday after Reuters reported Trump is planning to propose Congress kill a $7,500 consumer tax credit for electric cars (this despite his new right-hand man being Tesla co-founder Elon Musk) as part of a promised attack on efforts to cut fossil fuel use. Tesla fell nearly 5%, though Reuters says Musk doesn’t mind because killing the credit will damage his rivals. | Reuters ($)The average trade-in during the third quarter carried an all-time record amount of negative equity with the borrower underwater by an average of $6,458, up 11% from a year earlier. 24% percent of trade-ins used for new-vehicle purchases were underwater, up from 19% a year earlier though lower than the 34% in the pre-pandemic third quarter of 2019. | Automotive News ($)During their earnings call, Hertz said that it aims to sell 30,000 EVs this year and continue selling through 2025. The car rental company reports that its depreciation is up 89% to $537 per vehicle per month. You can go on Hertz’s website right now and buy Tesla Model 3 vehicles for less than $25,000. | ElectrekRoland Berger has released their "Automotive Outlook 2040" publication, which is chock-full of valuable industry data and a must-read for anyone trying to predict what the industry might look like in the future. | Roland BergerAn April 2023 study by the Highway Loss Data Institute (HDLI) found that certain collision avoidance systems bring down insurance claim frequency by as much as 28%. | BankrateVietnamese billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong pledged to invest about $2 billion into VinFast, another major capital infusion from his personal wealth for the struggling electric vehicle maker. Parent company Vingroup also promised to loan VinFast as much as $1.38 billion. | Automotive News ($)Motorcycling in the US may be dying. In 1970, the first year for which the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) has data, 1.1 million new motorbikes were sold at retail in the US. From there, sales fell more or less steadily to a low of 278,000 in 1992. Then they began to climb. By 2007 they had surpassed 1.1 million again. But with the financial crash, bike sales crashed too, and never really recovered. | Bloomberg ($)Rivian and Volkswagen formally launched their joint venture with a potential $5.8 billion deal to bring next-generation electrical architecture and software for both automakers’ electric vehicles based on Rivian’s current technology. The automakers announced the deal in June of last year. | Automotive News ($)Glenn Mercer reports that the average speed of traffic in Midtown Manhattan is 4.8 mph, which is the lowest figure recorded since comparable data started being recorded in 1971. | Glenn MercerDonald Trump has threatened to impose punitive tariffs of 100% or higher on cars from Mexico, which would violate a trade agreement his first administration negotiated with Canada and Mexico. The consequences for the auto industry would be profound, affecting the price in the United States of popular models like Ford Maverick pickups, Chevrolet Equinox sport utility vehicles and several variations of Ram trucks. Mr. Trump has said the tariffs would encourage more automotive manufacturing in the United States. | The New York Times ($)United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, one of the nation’s most prominent and provocative labor leaders, has hit new roadblocks in his efforts to expand the union and faces a political environment that has rapidly become less friendly to organized labor. | The Wall Street Journal ($)New York will revive its once-abandoned plan for the nation’s first congestion-pricing program, but at a reduced rate of a $9 toll for most vehicles to enter Midtown and Lower Manhattan. Gov. Kathy Hochul intends to announce the state’s revised proposal on Thursday, lowering the initial $15 charge for cars to enter Manhattan’s core at peak hours. | The New York Times ($)

⚡️ Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Electrification has experienced many setbacks in 2024, yet electric vehicle (EV) sales records are still being set. More than 1.7 million units were sold globally in October, a 3% increase on the previous month, which was also the former high-water mark. | Automotive World ($)

✈️ Aviation & Space

Commercial airplane fleets are aging at an alarming rate, and the implications—ranging from higher maintenance, repair and overhaul costs to reduced ability to meet ambitious sustainability targets—are troubling for operators. | Aviation Week

China debuted its latest model of stealth fighter jet and foreshadowed an ambitious pipeline of advanced drones, as Beijing displayed its determination to match American military might by investing heavily in the latest tech and forging ever-closer bonds with partners like Russia. The maiden flight demonstration of the J-35A, a “fifth generation” fighter designed to evade radar detection and attack enemy targets at supersonic speeds, was the main attraction on the opening day of the Zhuhai air show. | The Washington Post ($)

Honda Research Institute is set to fly its first electric vertical takeoff and landing prototype after receiving an exemption from the Federal Aviation Administration for research and development. The prototype, a subscale model with a hybrid propulsion system, will be tested under strict conditions. Honda's experience with aircraft certification through its HondaJet business is expected to expedite the development of eVTOL. | FLYING

🌡️ Climate

Countries have made scant progress in curbing their greenhouse gas emissions over the past year, keeping the planet on track for dangerous levels of warming this century. The report by the Climate Action Tracker, a research group, estimates that the climate and energy policies currently pursued by governments around the world would cause global temperatures to rise roughly 2.7 degrees Celsius, or 4.9 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial levels by 2100. That estimate of future warming has barely budged for three years now, the group said. | The New York Times ($)

🤖 Autonomy & Robotics

It turns out that “automation complacency” is a real thing. People have been studying the phenomenon for decades in all kinds of partially automated systems, from aviation to manufacturing processes. When you ask humans to supervise automated systems, their attention starts to wander, which means they don’t always notice in time when a problem does arise, nor are they aware enough of the context to immediately take over. And the better an automated system performs most of the time, the more complacent we humans become. Car drivers, it turns out, are not immune. Studies of various partial-automation systems have found drivers become increasingly likely to disengage the longer they use them. In the US, the National Transportation Safety Board has blamed automation complacency for a number of car crashes. | Financial Times ($)

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": The last 1957 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing. | RM Sotheby's

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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Notable & New

🎤

Check out WarrCloud CEO Jim Roche on Car Dealership Guy. | Car Dealership Guy

📢

Jim Roche from WarrCloud on how dealerships are leveraging AI for back-office tasks that can streamline processes, alleviate staff frustration and ultimately keep customers happier. Warranty claims processing is a prime example. | AutoSuccess

📢

Thanks to Mark Hollmer for interviewing Steve for his Automotive News article on what Trump's re-election may mean for automotive technology startups. | Automotive News ($)

📢

Read up on why Centana Growth Partners recently invested in Automotive Ventures portfolio company WarrCloud. | Centana Growth Partners

📢

Steve collaborated with Force Marketing on their Q4 2024 Impact Report. | Force Marketing

🎤

On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News: we examine Tesla's recent run-up in stock price, driving the company's market cap to above $1 trillion, which is more than the next 10 automakers combined. | CBT News ($)

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