Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | OCT 14 2024 | VIEW ONLINE ➡️

What We're Reading:

🚗 Automotive

Tesla CEO Elon Musk showcased a two-door robotaxi with gull-wing doors and no steering wheel or pedals at a much-hyped event on Thursday, sticking to long-held promises of autonomous cars driving long-term growth at the electric vehicle maker. Musk traveled to the stage in a "Cybercab" and said production will start in 2026 with the vehicles being available to buy for less than $30,000. "The autonomous future is here," Musk said. "We have 50 fully autonomous cars here tonight. You'll see model Ys and the Cybercab. All driverless." The Cybercab will cost 20 cents a mile to operate over time, use inductive chargers and not require any plugs. They will also rely only on cameras and artificial intelligence, without the need for other hardware that robotaxi players use. Musk also showcased a larger, self-driving vehicle - called Robovan - capable of carrying up to 20 people, and showed off Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot. | Reuters ($)

Elon Musk unveiled Tesla’s highly anticipated self-driving taxi at a flashy event that was light on specifics, leaving investors questioning how the carmaker expects to achieve its ambitious goals. The underwhelming event sent Tesla’s shares down 9.3% at 9:31 a.m. Friday in New York, wiping out $69 billion of market value in the biggest intraday decline in more than two months. The stock had soared almost 70% since mid-April, largely in anticipation of the event. | Bloomberg ($)

If Tesla were to unveil a vehicle with a price tag of $25,000, it would be cheaper than 95% of cars sold in the US last year, essentially opening it to the entire US market. Even $30,000 would be less than what 87% of US buyers paid for new cars last year. Tesla executives have previously spoken about the launch of such a vehicle, but it’s taken a backseat to the robotaxi. | Bloomberg ($)John McElroy reports on what he learned at the recent SAE International North American International Propulsion Conference, including these great tidbits:

Chinese OEMs enjoy 30% lower battery costs than most other global automakers, while Tesla enjoys 15% lower cost.
BEV propulsion systems for legacy automakers cost about $13,500 on average, compared to $7,100 for ICE powertrains.

| Wards Auto

Nissan has returned to "stair step" sales incentives to help move inventory and increase market share. The Japanese automaker will give retailers escalating bonuses on the Rogue, Pathfinder and Frontier if they reach or exceed October sales targets. The three nameplates account for nearly half of Nissan's U.S. volume. The plan pays $200 for each of those vehicles sold if the dealership reaches 90% of its monthly goal. That increases to $500 at 100% and $750 at 120%. | Automotive News ($)

Toyota has been very cautious about shifting its reliance from internal combustion engines to batteries to power its vehicles. The automaker's chief scientist, Gill Pratt, is pragmatic about the transition, saying that the goal should be “to fight the real common enemy: global carbon emissions.” To achieve this target, he sees a future where electric vehicles can coexist alongside with cars that run on e-fuels and hydrogen. | Automotive News ($)Stellantis is taking “drastic measures” to shore up finances, including a belt-tightening approach known internally as the “doghouse” that seeks to put stricter limits on external spending. | The Wall Street Journal ($)Stellantis confirmed on Thursday that CEO Carlos Tavares would retire at the end of his contract in early 2026 and announced major senior management changes as it struggles to turn around its lagging North American operations. Earnings and sales in the French-Italian automaker's traditional profit powerhouse have been declining, forcing it to last week cut its 2024 profit forecast and signal possible reductions to its dividend and share buybacks next year. Analysts have downgraded the company's stock, which has tumbled 42% this year after missteps in North America, where sales of popular products such as its Jeep and Ram trucks typically produce much of its profits. | Reuters ($)Talladega Superspeedway had the biggest 'Big One' crash in NASCAR History. With 28 cars involved in Sunday's "Big One" crash at Talladega, it earns the title of the largest NASCAR Cup Series crash by number of cars damaged in the sport's history. | Road & Track

In Australia, huge amounts of rubber products reach the end of their life each year. Mining’s contribution is largely through off-the-road (OTR) tires, and to a lesser degree conveyor belts. Annually 130,000 tonnes of OTR tires are discarded, the vast majority (79%) of which come from the industry, according to Tyre Stewardship Australia (TSA), with agriculture a distant second, accounting for 11%. Those figures give pause for thought, but to add to that, for every 100 tires that are cast off, just ten are reused in some way. The remainder are either sent to landfill or stockpiled or buried at mines themselves. TSA believes that is no longer sustainable. | Mining Technology

Will the McLaren W1 prove to be peak hypercar? The W1 gets 1,258 brake horsepower and 988 pound-feet of torque from an all-new hybrid powertrain that combines a 4.0-liter twin-turbo V-8 internal combustion engine and an electric motor. The combination makes it the most powerful McLaren to date. Pricing on the car, the successor to the McLaren F1 of the 1990s and the McLaren P1 of the mid-2010s, starts at $2.1 million. The 3,084-pound W1 is the fastest road-legal McLaren Automotive Ltd ever, with a zero-to-124 mph sprint time of 5.8 seconds and zero-to-186 mph in 12.7 seconds. That’s quicker than the Speedtail. Zero to 60 mph is 2.7 seconds; top speed is 217 mph. Production of the W1 is limited to 399 vehicles; all of them have been allocated to specific customers. Deliveries will start in 2026. | Road & Track

European carmakers are planning dozens of affordable electric models next year as they brace for an “EV winter” driven by tough new EU carbon emission targets and fierce competition from China. Ahead of this week’s Paris Motor Show, the big European manufacturers, which have also been squeezed by falling demand, are focused on recovering lost market share with new vehicles. | Financial Times ($)

⚡️ Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Tesla is the largest operator of fast and ultra-fast public chargers in the US and Europe. | Bloomberg ($)

Electric vehicles contain lithium-ion batteries. If these batteries are soaked in saltwater, some can ignite after floodwaters subside. It’s a relatively rare problem, but the risk is real. If saltwater reaches the interior of a lithium-ion battery, it can cause the cells to short-circuit by conducting electricity between the positive and negative terminals. This generates heat. In some cases, that heat can spur a chain reaction inside the battery called thermal runaway. Heat from one cell starts melting the plastic separators inside neighboring cells, which causes additional short-circuiting and generates more heat. The end result: a fire that can last for hours and is hard to extinguish. Automakers design their lithium-ion batteries to be water-resistant. But if a vehicle is submerged in saltwater for an extended period, wear and tear or corrosion could allow saltwater to seep into the battery and cause a fire. | The New York Times ($)

Research out of Finland found that people who purchase EVs tend to be wealthier than average. They are also more highly educated and drive more miles per year on average. The researchers also found that despite buying and driving an EV, the average purchaser of an EV still had a higher carbon footprint than people who did not buy such vehicles. | Phys OrgNissan is joining ChargeScape, the alliance created last fall by three of its competitors: Ford, Honda and BMW. ChargeScape has created a single platform that connects electric utilities, automakers and electric vehicle drivers and helps manage energy usage in the U.S. and Canada. The software went live in September and wirelessly integrates EVs into the power grid, enhancing grid stability and saving drivers money on charges. | Automotive News ($)

This chart shows the average cost to charge an electric car for 25 minutes at a public station in various European countries. Data is sourced from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO), as of 2024. | Visual Capitalist

Toyota is showcasing a series of sustainable developments at the Japan Mobility Bizweek later this month – including its vision of a portable hydrogen cartridge future, which could apparently provide 'swappable' power for next-gen hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Originally a project of Toyota’s mobility technology subsidiary Woven by Toyota (formerly Woven Planet), the team produced a working prototype of a hydrogen cartridge back in 2022 but has since developed the idea further… and appears to be running with it. The latest cartridges are lighter and easier to transport, with Toyota claiming the current iteration has been developed with the experience the company has gained in reducing the size and weight of the hydrogen tanks used in its fuel cell electric vehicles. | TechRadar

🇨🇳 China

General Motors got into China in the late 1990s, soon after the government opened the country to foreign investment on the condition that automakers partner with domestic companies. Both GM and Volkswagen entered joint ventures with SAIC Motor, which was widely viewed as among the most sophisticated Chinese automakers. China soon became GM’s growth engine. Early last decade, it was selling more cars there than in the U.S. By 2016, the company had 18 assembly plants in China, one less than in North America. But more recently, General Motors' market share in China has shriveled. After years of consistent profits in China, GM swung to a loss in the first half of this year. The company’s market share has fallen in recent years to 8.4% in 2023 from 13.7% in 2018. Its downturn reflects a broader trend in which Chinese brands have grown from about one-third of the market early this decade to nearly 60% in the first half of this year. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Hybrids are enjoying a surge in popularity in China and beyond as they help assuage range anxiety and tend to be more affordable. Plug-in hybrids contain a fuel tank and engine that can kick in if the battery runs out of juice. With range-extended EVs, the gas engine runs periodically to recharge the battery. Their growth has outpaced that of pure EVs, with hybrid registrations in China surging almost 140% in August, and range-extended EVs soaring 90%. Pure EV sales rose 20% for the month, according to the China Automotive Technology & Research Center. | Bloomberg ($)A Chinese mining company has gained control of more than a third of the world’s cobalt supply—and the U.S. is worried about getting cut off. U.S. officials are accusing China-based CMOC Group Limited of flooding the market to make it harder for others to invest in producing cobalt, which is used in jet fighters, munitions, drones and electric-vehicle batteries. The sudden rise of an obscure company to a position of dominance in the mining industry is a study in how Chinese companies are spreading around the globe, often to feed the country’s manufacturing machine. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

🤖 Robotics & Autonomy

According to a McKinsey & Company analysis, the total cost of ownership (TCO) for autonomous heavy-duty trucks could be 42% less per mile. | McKinsey & CompanyTens of thousands of dockworkers last week returned to their jobs on East Coast ports after a three-day strike that threatened to snarl trade and hobble the economy. Workers won a 62% pay increase. But a much larger, thornier issue remains—one that’s playing out in other businesses as well, from factories to grocery stores to Hollywood: How much, and how quickly, are humans willing to concede to machines? Shipping executives note with frustration that U.S. ports lag behind facilities in Europe and Asia in automation. Major Asian and European ports consistently rank higher than their U.S. counterparts in an annual ranking by the World Bank that measures factors such as port productivity and the amount of time a ship spends in port. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

In June, Google-backed Waymo opened up its services to the public, and it now counts ~700 vehicles in several cities, which are completing more than 100,000 self-driving rides a week. That progress is off the back of years of testing — Waymo autonomous vehicles racked up ~4.9 million miles in 2023, according to the California DMV, more than any other company that filed reports (Tesla does not report data). | SherwoodAt its "Delivering the Future" event Wednesday, Amazon announced plans for new robot-powered delivery warehouses. The first “next-generation fulfillment center” is located in Shreveport, Louisiana. The 3-million-square-foot warehouse spans five floors, constituting the rough equivalent of 55 football fields. The site represents the culmination of Amazon’s work in robotics, which dates back more than a decade to its 2012 Kiva acquisition. The retail giant’s approach has largely revolved around incorporating robots into existing worklfows, so as to not disrupt regular operations. The new model looks to bring a more ground-up greenfield approach to robotics and AI. Amazon has yet to announce specific figures in terms of robots deployed, only that it will bring 10x that of a standard fulfillment center. We do know, however, that the company already has nearly a million robotic systems deployed in centers across the U.S. | TechCrunchElon Musk unveiled a prototype of Tesla’s Robovan on Thursday night during the company’s We, Robot event in Los Angeles. The Robovan will be an electric, autonomous vehicle roughly the size of a bus, designed for transporting people around high density areas. It will carry up to 20 people at a time and also transport goods, according to Musk. | TechCrunch

🛴 Micromobility

The rate of e-bike and powered scooter injuries surged between 2019 and 2022 — by 293% and 88%, respectively, according to a new study by researchers at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. | Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health

✈️ Aviation & Space

Nascent eVTOL “flying car” racing league Airspeeder has announced a collaboration with renowned architecture firm HOK to introduce the “SkyDeck,” described as the world’s first modular race vertiport. This solar-powered hub will offer fans 360-degree views of the eVTOLs racing through the air, bringing a new level of immersion to motorsports. Airspeeder and HOK believe the SkyDeck, which will be erected in the desert of Australia, is first-of-its-kind approach for fans that will combine cutting-edge design with interactive digital experiences. Airspeeder looks to continue its EXA flying car race series with 10 crewed teams in 2025. | ElectrekA SpaceX Starship rocket successfully landed upright Sunday alongside a massive metal landing tower as it was caught by two converging “chopstick” arms — another historic engineering breakthrough for the world’s largest and most powerful rocket. Sunday’s launch marked the fifth test flight for Starship, which stands nearly 400 feet tall and is composed of the Super Heavy booster and the Starship spacecraft. The system is central to founder Elon Musk’s hopes to eventually colonize Mars and to NASA’s plans to return astronauts to the moon. Musk has said he plans to launch about five uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in the next two years, with possible crewed missions to follow. | The Washington Post ($)

🌡️ Climate

The International Energy Agency (IEA) just released its “Renewables 2024” report, which projects that by the end of this decade, global renewable energy capacity is set to grow by more than 5,500 gigawatts (GW). To put that in perspective, that’s about as much power capacity as the current combined total of China, the EU, India, and the US. From 2024 to 2030, new renewable installations are expected to be nearly three times higher than what we saw between 2017 and 2023. China is leading the way and will be responsible for almost 60% of all new renewables added in that time frame, meaning it will account for nearly half of the world’s renewable power capacity by 2030. Meanwhile, India is seeing the fastest growth among major economies. Solar is the biggest driver of this surge, with solar PV expected to make up 80% of the new renewable capacity. This is thanks to the ongoing construction of large solar power plants and more rooftop solar being installed by homeowners and businesses. Wind is also set for a strong rebound, doubling its growth rate between now and 2030 compared to the previous seven years. Right now, wind and solar are already the cheapest ways to generate new electricity in almost every country. | IEA

📚 Venture Capital

Each quarter, Carta releases information on the startup ecosystem in their "State of Private Markets" report. The Q3 2024 “first cut” data is available, focusing on round valuations and cash raised across the venture stages. Seed-stage valuations (where Automotive Ventures typically invests) are up slightly vs. last quarter. | Carta

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Cars of the Week": a 1990 Porsche 911 Reimagined by Singer DLS (Dynamics and Lightweight Study). | Broad ArrowHave a great week,Steve Greenfield

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Notable & New

📢

Automotive Ventures portfolio company Kinetic, which offers precision digital sensor recalibration for advanced driver-assistance systems, has partnered with Young Automotive Group to open a hub in suburban Salt Lake City. The Kinetic Hub, which opened Oct. 7, will initially serve three of the group's nearby collision centers. Young Automotive has dealerships and collision centers in northern Utah, Idaho and Montana. | Automotive News ($)

🎤

On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News: we discuss increasing pressure for legacy automakers to consider consolidation to share costs and defend against the existential threat of the Chinese OEMs. | CBT News ($)

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