Intel Report: Mobility News

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | OCT 30 2023 | VIEW ONLINE ➡️

Check out Automotive Ventures portfolio company Kinetic's Cal-Station performing all sensor calibrations within 10 minutes on a Toyota Mirai. This would take 2hrs+ using traditional methods! (Link)

What We're Reading:

The UAW reached a tentative contract agreement with Stellantis, which owns Chrysler, Jeep and Ram. Of the three big Detroit automakers, only GM has yet to make a deal. The union expanded its strike against GM to a plant in Tennessee. (Link)With signs of growing inventory and slowing sales, auto industry executives admitted this week that their ambitious electric vehicle plans are in jeopardy, at least in the near term. (Link)The pace of EV sales is slowing, leaving some wondering if carmakers pushed EVs too early. Electric vehicle inventories are building up on dealer lots quickly, sending EV discounts to an all-time high. (Link)A key theme from this earnings season is the waning demand for electric cars. The shift has been sobering for investors, as the valuations of most EV stocks assume a rapid industry expansion. (💲Link)Ford recorded a nearly $37,000 operating loss per EV sold this quarter, 51% worse than last year. With once sky-high electric prices now free-falling, Ford faces the brass-tacks problem of simply grinding down costs. (💲Link)Ford estimates the UAW deal could add $850 to $900 in labor cost per vehicle. (💲Link)Slowing demand for electric vehicles has prompted GM and Ford to postpone billions of dollars in investments as the automakers decide they don't yet need additional EV production capacity. (💲Link)GM is sending alarming signals. It scrapped EV production targets Tuesday and said it was slowing its growth plans. It needs to limit any risk of overproduction that might force it to follow Tesla down the route of cutting prices. (💲Link)Mercedes said a "brutal" electric vehicle market of heavy price cuts and supply chain issues meant it would likely hit the lower end of its 12-14% adjusted return on sales forecast for the cars division, as third-quarter earnings fell. (💲Link)A cause of Ford's quarterly earnings call miss was $1.2 billion more in warranty costs than last year. Embracing gadgetry has helped Detroit automakers charge higher prices in recent years, but in Ford’s case it also put a lot of strain on the electrical systems of products designed by mechanical engineers. (💲Link)Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda, when asked about electric-vehicle challenges including a recent lull in U.S. demand, said the industry was coming to recognize that there isn’t a single answer to reducing carbon emissions. “People are finally seeing reality,” Toyoda said. As EV sales momentum lags behind in the U.S. and more buyers gravitate to hybrids, he may be enjoying an “I told you so” moment. (💲Link)Toyota CEO Koji Sato: Carmakers shouldn't rush EVs if the products aren't ready and demand isn't sustainable. Japan should step up its game in EVs — but electrics are just one arrow in a quiver of technologies that will help rein in carbon emissions. (💲Link)Toyota has indicated in recent weeks that it is close to a manufacturing breakthrough for a potentially game-changing technology: solid-state batteries. (Link)Toyota says it is close to being able to manufacture next-generation solid-state batteries at the same rate as existing batteries for electric vehicles. It would allow Toyota to mass-produce solid-state batteries by 2027 or 2028. If successful, Toyota expects its electric cars powered by solid-state batteries to have a range of 746 miles (1,200 km) — more than twice the range of its current EVs — and a charging time of 10 minutes or less. (💲Link)Toyota's software unit’s early missteps offer a cautionary tale for leaders of traditional companies who know they need a new kind of tech expertise but struggle to meld it with old aptitudes and habits. (💲Link)Amid industry turmoil surrounding EV demand, Hyundai is pushing forward with its EV production plans, domestically and overseas. (Link)

EV ownership is deeply tied to voting behavior in the U.S., according to a report by BloombergNEF. For every 10% increase in Joe Biden’s share of votes in the 2020 election, the concentration of EVs was roughly 50% higher. (💲Link)Cheap EV in the U.S. market? The VINFAST VF 3 could qualify for the $7,500 federal EV tax credit when leased under the current rules. If so, the potential lease price would hypothetically fall to $12,500. (💲Link)

Which automakers haven't yet joined the Tesla NACS charging standard? This helpful chart is already out of date: Toyota has since committed. (Link)

Most of the automakers have announced support for Tesla's North American Charging Standard (NACS), but two major holdouts remain: Volkswagen and Stellantis. (Link)BP's electric vehicle charger unit is ordering $100 million worth of Tesla ultra-fast chargers for rollout in the United States, the first deployment of Tesla's chargers on an independent network. The purchase is part of BP Pulse's plans to invest up to $1 billion in charging stations across the U.S. by 2030 and it offers EV market leader Tesla a new revenue stream. (💲Link)Tesla CEO Elon Musk: "We emptied the entire drum of a Tommy gun into the driver door Al Capone style. No bullets penetrated into the passenger compartment." (Link)The California DMV suspended Cruise's autonomous-vehicle deployment and driverless testing permits Tuesday, after determining the company's vehicles "are not safe for the public's operations." (💲Link)Cruise said on Thursday evening that it would pause all driverless operations in the U.S., two days after California regulators told the GM subsidiary to take its autonomous cars off the state’s roads. The decision affects Cruise’s robot taxi services in Austin, Texas, and Phoenix, where a limited number of public riders could hail paid rides. Noncommercial operations in Dallas, Houston and Miami were also paused. (💲Link)Two months before Cruise’s driverless cars were yanked off the streets in San Francisco for rolling over a pedestrian and dragging her about 20 feet, California regulators said they were confident in self-driving technology and gave the company permission to operate its robotaxi service around the city. That approval was a pivotal moment for the self-driving car industry, as it expanded one of the biggest test cases in the world for the technology. But now, following a horrendous Oct. 2 crash that critically injured a jaywalking pedestrian — and Cruise’s initial misrepresentation over what actually happened that night — officials are rethinking whether self-driving cars are ready for the road, and experts are encouraging other states to do the same. This Thursday, just two days after the California Department of Motor Vehicles suspended Cruise’s driverless permits, the company said it would suspend all driverless operations around the country to examine its process and earn back public trust. (💲Link)Would an investment into Chinese automaker Leapmotor help Stellantis get in the EV game - and potentially bring Stellantis-branded Chinese EVs into the U.S.? (💲Link)Buying into a Chinese automaker sounds like a great answer to the challenge of making cheaper electric vehicles. If only it were easier to pick winners. Chinese companies can produce EVs 30% more cheaply than Western ones. With the exception of Volvo-owner Geely, Chinese automakers don’t have ambitions in the U.S., given the tensions between Washington and Beijing. (💲Link)Shift Robotics has launched Moonwalkers, which it is calling the world’s fastest shoes. These electric skates strap onto the bottom of your shoes, allowing you to walk up to 2.5x faster. The AI drivetrain adapts to the user’s gait, speeding up and slowing down as needed. (Link)Hertz is slowing down the pace by which it adds battery electric vehicles to its fleet. The rental car company cited Tesla’s price cuts negatively impacting the resale value of its EVs, as well as higher than expected repair costs for EVs as reasons to slow its pace of electrification. (Link)

Between 2010 and 2021, pedestrian deaths rose 77%, to 7,624 from an annual total of 4,302. This increase has taken us to a 40-year high for pedestrian fatalities. Who or what is to blame for this terrible increase in pedestrian fatalities? For starters, there is the proliferation of bigger and heavier trucks and SUVs, which may pose a growing menace to pedestrians and bicyclists. (💲Link)

Global demand for oil will reach its peak this decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted for the first time, amid growing popularity of electric cars and the cooling of China’s economy. (💲Link)

The pandemic's bottleneck on the global supply chain has been significantly lessened, if not resolved. (Link)Small and medium-sized companies are turning to automation as the gradual exit from the workplace of Germany's post-war "baby boom" generation tightens the labor squeeze. (💲Link)Amazon now has over 750,000 robots working collaboratively with their employees, taking on highly repetitive tasks and freeing employees up to better deliver for their customers. To put this in perspective, Amazon has approximately 1.5 million employees. (Link)Amazon announced the launch of drone deliveries of medicines purchased through Amazon Pharmacy, its online prescription drug store. Amazon said packages will be dropped by drone within 60 minutes of being ordered. The first city for the service will be College Station, Texas. (Link)

Google is adding new updates for Maps. EV drivers will start to see additional information about the charging stations that show up on their map, including whether a charger is compatible with their vehicle and whether the available chargers are fast, medium or slow. You will also be able to see when a charger was last used, so you can be sure it works and don’t end up driving to a broken charger. (Link)The rapid growth of what some call “minimobility” is also being driven by the falling cost and increasing power of electric motors and batteries. But, analysts are highly skeptical that any appreciable portion of that market will be in the U.S., where consumers feel the need to buy ever-larger vehicles to feel safe on America’s wide streets and roads. (Link)Lilium wants to be the first to sell electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft in the US. (Link)

The U.S. Marine Corps used a ‘robotic goat’ to fire a rocket-propelled grenade - a glimpse into what robot-assisted combat of the present and the future could look like. (Link)

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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Notable & New

🎥 On this week's Future of Automotive segment on CBT News, we unpack how an F1 team coordinates 22 team members to execute a 2-second pitstop. (💲Link)

📢 Steve is moderating this panel on the future of the automotive retail channel at CES in January. With Mike Stanton (NADA), Jeremy Beaver (DGDG), Beth Hill (FordDirect), and Jonathan Smoke (Cox Automotive). (Link)

📢 The CTA Match program at the CES conference in January connects entrepreneurs and established investors. Apply as a startup or investor by November 3, 2023. (Link)📢 Thanks to AutoSuccess for the interview with Danny Zaslavsky from Automotive Ventures portfolio company VINCUE. (Link)📢 How does Automotive Ventures work with (and leverage) our Limited Partners (aka Investors)? (Link)

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Companies to Watch

🌟 JOCO is the first end-to-end platform that enables gig workers and companies to seamlessly use light electric vehicles (LEVs) for last-mile delivery. JOCO’s high-tech platform and LEV infrastructure network removes all the hassle of owning, storing, charging and maintaining a bike. (Link)

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