Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Sep 1 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

The auto business is very publicly grappling with an existential quandary. Many of the traditional big hitters are trying to navigate the seismic shifts taking place in the car business globally, led by, but not restricted to, the sunsetting of internal combustion and the arrival of cheaper and better EVs from China. But the real concern is that, facing such an onslaught of unfamiliar pressures, automakers—with very few exceptions—don’t have a strategy to get them out of hot water. Car companies need long-term plans, because it generally takes four to five years to develop a new model. But the world is moving too fast for the industry to accurately predict what customers will want in four years, what new governments will demand, and what cost targets to hit to be competitive. | Wired ($)

Gartner’s annual “digital automaker index”, which compares carmakers on their potential to monetise their software, suggests traditional European, U.S. and Japanese groups are still a long way behind these relatively recent arrivals. Its top five in 2025 was dominated by Tesla and Chinese brands including NIO, Xiaomi Technology and XPENG. General Motors ranked ninth, Mercedes-Benz AG-Benz was 13th and Toyota Motor Corporation was 21st. Ultimately, analysts warn that the auto industry is likely to go in the same direction as smartphones and PCs, with a small number of operating systems like iOS and Android eventually dominating the software space. They add that the transition will fundamentally tilt the industry’s modus operandi away from designing, building and selling cars — a business model characterized by mechanical engineering and relatively thin profit margins — and towards software and services. | Financial Times ($)

Seven-year car loans are becoming more common, with 21.6% of all new-vehicle financing in the second quarter of 2025, as they can make monthly payments more affordable for buyers. Long-term loans have downsides, including slower equity building, potential for being "upside down" when trading in, and higher total costs, with the average interest paid on an 84-month loan being $15,460. Some lenders are pushing even longer terms, such as 8-year loans, which account for less than 1% of auto loans but are on the rise, prompting concerns that the industry is not learning from past mistakes. | Bloomberg ($)

StoneEagle's latest StoneEagleDATA benchmark insights show for July 2025:Average new lease deals per dealer: 16.3 (↑ 12% MoM)New EV lease penetration: 19.59% (↑ 31% MoM)New lease penetration: 11.16% of all sales (↑ 13.27% MoM)Front gross per new lease deal: –$46.71 (↓ 141% MoM)New retail avg front gross: $336.72 (↓ 25.6% MoM)New lease F&I PVR: $1,312 (↓ 1% MoM) | StoneEagle

For years, the largest city in New England has wrestled with a problem that seems easily fixable: People keep crashing tall trucks into low bridges. The dilemma persists despite more than 40 “Cars Only” signs, government-run social-media campaigns, and reminders from local universities. It’s particularly acute this time of year, when the Boston area’s many college students and their parents—most of whom don’t normally drive big trucks—use rentals for apartment moves. One August, a local social-media account tallied 34 bridge strikes or back-outs. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Chinese automaker BYD announced that the Yangwang U9 Track Edition has reached a top speed of 472.41 km/h (293.54 mph) at a test track in Germany, making it the fastest electric vehicle in the world. The Track Edition is fitted with quad electric motors generating a peak power of 744 hp (555 kW / 755 PS) each. According to BYD, the combined output is over 2,960 hp (2,207 kW / 3,000 PS), translating to an impressive power-to-weight ratio of 1,200 hp per tonne. | CarScoops

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EVs

President Donald Trump has made no secret of his disdain for electric vehicles. On the first day of his presidency, he signed an executive order to eliminate EV incentives that he has often falsely portrayed as an “electric vehicle mandate.” And last month, Republicans in Congress voted to kill the $7,500 tax credit, among other subsidies designed to make EVs more affordable. You’d think all this negative overhead would depress EV sales, but instead, Americans are rushing to take advantage of those credits before they expire on September 30th (or thereabouts). Automakers are pouring fuel on the fire in the form of their own discounts and incentives. As a result, EV sales are soaring to new heights right now — and it’s all thanks to Trump. Battery-electric vehicles are expected to account for 12.8% of car sales in August, up 3.2% year over year, according to J.D. Power. That’s also an increase of 1.6% from July’s figures and represents an all-time high for EVs, exceeding the previous peak of 11.2% set in December 2024. | The Verge

Porsche AG is throwing in the towel on internal automotive-battery production, citing the slowdown in consumer adoption of battery-electric vehicles. The luxury performance automaker says in a statement its CELLFORCE GROUP battery company will now be “realigning” to focus on R&D. The move is expected to see up to two-thirds of the company’s employees laid off. In an enquiry by WardsAuto, a Porsche spokesperson states in an email that, while the company does not comment on numbers for legal reasons, “…(two-thirds) goes in the right direction.” That said, some employees will be offered relocation to sites run by the Volkswagen Group battery unit PowerCo, Porsche’s statement adds. Cellforce had been expecting to expand its battery production capabilities as part of Europe’s bid to become less dependent on Chinese imports for domestically produced BEVs. | WardsAuto

During an interview on the Plugged-In Podcast, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe told InsideEVs that his startup’s main focus right now on the battery front is making EVs charge faster without sacrificing range. Shorter public charging stops would make owning an EV far more convenient, especially for road trips and people who can’t charge at home. But it’s a tougher nut to crack than you might think. | InsideEVs

Startups worldwide are racing to develop new battery technologies using materials like sodium and sulfur or other innovative chemistries, aiming to cut costs and reduce reliance on some critical minerals to supply electric vehicles (EVs). China controls 85% of the global battery cell production, and 90% of processing of raw materials used in two lithium-ion variants that dominate today's EV market. Battery technology is evolving fast, but the basic principle remains unchanged, with three key components: a cathode, an anode, and an electrolyte. As carmakers weigh long-term options, here is a look at the various battery types currently in use or under development. | Reuters ($)

Thinking of getting an electric vehicle? The federal government’s $7,500 subsidy expires at the end of September. (Though you might not need a subsidy to make the math work.) EVs tend to be pricier than comparable gas cars, but they have lower maintenance costs. And charging with electricity is typically cheaper than stopping at the gas pump. The New York Times calculator takes into account the major upfront and ongoing costs of ownership — gas/electricity and maintenance — and does the math for you, though they don’t include every possible expense or rebate. (They also give you an estimate of greenhouse gas emissions, if money isn’t your only incentive.) It’s not straightforward to compare buying versus leasing, but leasing an EV could be a particularly good deal right now. Hybrids might also be a good money-saving option in the long run, but they mostly don’t qualify for the subsidies. | The New York Times ($)

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China

A decade ago, planners in Beijing unveiled Made in China 2025, an ambitious scheme to take leadership of the industries of the future. The plan identified ten sectors for investment, including energy, semiconductors, industrial automation, and high-tech materials. It aimed to upgrade China’s manufacturing in these sectors and others, reduce the country’s dependence on imports and foreign firms, and improve the competitiveness of Chinese companies in global markets. The overarching goal was to transform China into a technological leader and turn China’s national champion firms into global ones. The government backed this vision with enormous financial support, spending one to two percent of GDP each year on direct and indirect subsidies, cheap credit, and tax breaks. China has been wildly successful in these efforts. It not only leads the world in electric vehicles and clean technology power generation; it is also dominant in drones, industrial automation, and other electronics products. Its lock on rare-earth magnets produced a quick trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump. Chinese firms are on track to master the more sophisticated technological goods produced by the United States, Europe, and other parts of Asia. And yet China’s model still has many skeptics. Lavish funding, they point out, has led to waste and corruption. It has created industries in which dozens of competitors manufacture similar products and struggle to make a profit. The resulting deflation makes companies wary of hiring new staff or raising wages, leading to lower consumer confidence and weaker growth. China’s economy, which once looked poised to overtake the United States’ as the world’s biggest, is mired in a slowdown and may never match the American one in total output. These problems are not trivial. But it is a serious error to think they are big enough to derail China’s technological momentum. Beijing’s industrial policy succeeded not simply because planners picked the right sectors and subsidized them. It worked because the state built out the deep infrastructure needed to become a resilient technological powerhouse. It created an innovation ecosystem centered on powerful electricity and digital networks, and it established a massive workforce with advanced manufacturing knowledge. Call it an all-of-the-above technology strategy. This approach has enabled China to develop new technologies and scale them up faster than any other country. Its model is unlikely to be pushed off course by sluggish economic growth or U.S. sanctions. | Foreign Affairs ($)

Bill Russo from Automobility Ltd argues that to compete with the Chinese, global automotive suppliers must adopt a "High Road Strategy" built on three principles:1. Leverage Complementary Strengths – Pair global reach, regulatory expertise, and established footprints with China’s scale, agility, and digital leadership.2. Build Partnership Ecosystems – Collaborate not only with OEMs but also with technology firms, startups, and even competitors to assemble full technology stacks and unlock recurring revenue streams.3. Match “China Speed” – Embrace agile development, modularized product platforms, and co-development models that can flex with shifting requirements. | Bill Russo

As America and the EU attempt to shut out Chinese EVs, they are finding their way to other markets—at even cheaper prices. For the most part, emerging markets lack legacy manufacturers that will lobby their governments to keep out Chinese imports. Yet this relatively free trade is at risk as protectionism begins to spread. Until recently Brazil allowed EVs into its economy tariff-free; now it is gradually raising import taxes to 35% by 2026. Governments are at least also creating loopholes that allow Chinese imports to continue so long as the companies in question commit to local production. Brazil has carved out an exemption for BYD, a carmaker, while it establishes a factory in the country. Indonesia has reduced value-added tax on EVs from 11% to 1% for vehicles that meet a 40% local-content requirement; foreign manufacturers, meanwhile, can bring in equipment duty-free so long as they promise to increase domestic production by 2026 and provide a guarantee for the forgone tariffs if they do not follow through. Such policies are far from perfect—but they are better than the alternative. | The Economist ($)

Electric vehicles have reached a tipping point in China. They now represent the majority of the new car market, surging to 51% market share. The majority of the world’s electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) are both built and sold in China. In 2024, global electric car production reached around 17 million vehicles, with China accounting for about 12 million of those — over 70% of the world’s total. Roughly 11 million of the 12 million EVs were also sold in China. The rest were exported to other markets. | Electrek

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Autonomy, Robotics & AI

ARK Investment Management believes that Tesla’s robotaxi business could represent ~90% of its enterprise value by 2029, capturing a significant share of ARK’s projected ~$10 trillion global robotaxi market | ARK Investment Management

At Hyundai’s ultramodern new auto plant, robots perform a stunning array of tasks. They move materials, attach doors and do almost all of the welding. Dog-like robots, their snouts laden with cameras, prance across the floor to inspect partially built Ioniq electric vehicles. The factory, which opened near Savannah, Ga., late last year, deploys 750 robots, not counting the hundreds of autonomous guided vehicles that glide across the floor. About 1,450 people work alongside them. That roughly 2-to-1 ratio of humans to robots compares with the U.S. auto-industry average of 7-to-1. Hyundai Motor Co. Chief Executive José Muñoz said the factory was designed so that robots do tasks that are dangerous, repetitive or physically demanding. People are left to troubleshoot, monitor quality and bring craftsmanship to the manufacturing process. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

The U.S. is spending billions in a rush to beat China to the next evolutionary leap in AI. China is running a different race. Since the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT nearly three years ago, Silicon Valley has spent mountains of money in pursuit of AI’s holy grail: artificial general intelligence that matches or beats human thinking. Enthusiasts say it will give the U.S. insurmountable military advantages, help cure cancer and solve climate change, and eliminate the need for people to perform routine work such as accounting and customer service. In China, by contrast, leader Xi Jinping has recently had little to say about AGI. Instead, he’s pushing the country’s tech industry to be “strongly oriented toward applications”—building practical, low-cost tools that boost China’s efficiency and can be marketed easily. The two visions represent a head-to-head bet with significant stakes. If China’s gamble turns out to be wrong, it could find itself lagging far behind the U.S. in the most consequential technology of the 21st century. But if AGI remains a distant dream, as more people in Silicon Valley now believe, China will be in position to steal a march on its global rival in wringing the most out of AI in its current form, and spread its applications worldwide. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

✈️ Aviation & Space

SpaceX's launch site in South Texas a decade ago consisted of only rolling dunes, a large mound of dirt, and a few satellite dishes that talked to Dragon spacecraft as they flew overhead. A few years later, in mid-2019, the company had moved some of that dirt and built a small launch pad. A handful of SpaceX engineers working there at the time shared some office space nearby in a tech hub building, "Stargate." The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley proudly opened this state-of-the-art technology center just weeks earlier. That summer, from Stargate's second floor, engineers looked on as the Starhopper prototype made its first two flights a couple of miles away. Over the ensuing years, as the company began assembling its Starship rockets on site, SpaceX first erected small tents, then much larger tents, and then towering high bays in which the vehicles were stacked. Starbase grew and evolved to meet the company's needs. All of this was merely a prelude to the end game: Starfactory. SpaceX opened this truly massive facility earlier this year. The sleek rocket factory is emblematic of the new Starbase: modern, gargantuan, spaceship-like. | ARS Technica

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1956 Jaguar D-Type. | Broad Arrow

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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📺 In The News

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we discuss how legacy automakers are tapping into Silicon Valley talent to take on the AI challenge. | CBT News ($)

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