Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Sep 15 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading:

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Automotive

Scout Motors will operate differently from the rest of the Volkswagen Group when its cars go on sale in the United States in 2027: They'll be sold directly to customers and not through franchised dealerships. At Europe's biggest auto show, Scout CEO Scott Keogh reiterated that this Tesla-like model is the way to go, even as dealer groups escalate their legal challenges against the brand. "If you look at 21st century brands and what they're able to deliver, that's what they do," Keogh told reporters at the VW Group's press conference earlier this week. "We can create the stores and we can create the brand experience," he said, likening the buying process to getting a phone from Apple instead of Best Buy. | Inside EVs

Whisper it quietly, but beneath the buzz of shiny new car models and bright lights at Europe's largest car show, the industry sector is worried that their party is over. Prices and profits in key market China are in decline, demand is tepid in Europe and U.S. tariffs have created an uncertain outlook, putting the focus on cost-cutting as the global market is reshaped. "The party we have been celebrating in the automotive industry for decades is over in its current form," said Oliver Blume, CEO of both Volkswagen, Europe's biggest carmaker, and its luxury division Porsche. The sector faces a reckoning, sharpened by pressure to shift towards EVs with tough 2035 targets in Europe that many feel they cannot meet, even as Chinese EV rivals steal a march on local brands with lower-cost models. | Reuters ($)

Automotive OEMs in Europe and North America face a massive challenge: slowing demand for new cars and light trucks has left them with excess production capacity and manufacturing costs that are simply too high. At the same time, new competitors, including many based in China, are able to produce high-quality cars for about one-third the cost, giving them a huge advantage, particularly as consumers in many markets become more price sensitive. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) recently analyzed the cost gap between traditional OEMs and new entrants and identified four key areas in which the latter have the biggest manufacturing cost advantage. | BCG

President Donald Trump’s push to cut federal EV sales incentives and roll back emissions standards is shaping up to be a multibillion-dollar gift to Detroit’s automakers as they shift investments into gasoline-fueled cars. Although not yet finalized, the deregulatory push is clearing the way for Detroit’s legacy automakers and their traditional rivals to reallocate billions of dollars earmarked for EVs and other costs linked to pollution rules. General Motors has spent $3.5 billion since 2022 purchasing so-called regulatory credits to help the company meet fuel economy and tailpipe emissions requirements — a less-needed currency if Trump’s policies stick. The shift in policy “has the potential to unlock a multibillion-dollar opportunity over the next two years,” Ford CEO Jim Farley recently told analysts. | Automotive News ($)

Tesla's U.S. market share dropped to a near eight-year low in August as buyers chose electric vehicles from a growing stable of rivals over the aging lineup offered by CEO Elon Musk's company, according to data from research firm Cox Automotive shared exclusively with Reuters. The decline highlights the threat from automakers ramping up EV incentives at a difficult time for the industry. Analysts expect an EV sales bump to continue through September in the United States, then drop when federal tax credits expire at the end of the month, raising financial pressure on Tesla and other automakers. Tesla, which once held more than 80% of the U.S. EV market, accounted for 38% of the total EV sales in the United States in August, the first time it has fallen below the 40% mark since October 2017, when it was ramping up production of the Model 3, its first mass market car, according to early data from Cox. | Reuters ($)

Mega casting technology not only cuts vehicle production costs for automakers but also will save consumers, and their insurers, money on vehicle repairs. That’s the finding of a two-year study on crash testing and damage assessment by U.K. automotive technology testing specialist Thatcham Research.The company’s team of specialists found the technology, currently employed by U.S. battery-electric-vehicle maker Tesla and being investigated by the likes of Toyota, Volkswagen, Volvo and Hyundai, can significantly reduce the cost of repairs and possibly even cut the number of vehicle write-offs for insurance companies. | Wards Auto

Software has shifted from a support function to the foundation of long-term competitiveness for automakers. That is one of the key takeaways from a new study by Capgemini. The consultancy found that 87% of respondents to a recent survey named software as the single biggest source of advantage over rivals in the next five years. Nearly all automotive executives (92%) surveyed by Capgemini said they believe every automaker will evolve into a software company to compete in the era of software-defined vehicles. | Automotive News ($)

Jaguar’s sleek, sporty cars once sold well to legions of devotees, many of whom were drawn to its decades-long history and appearances in movies like “The Italian Job” and the James Bond series. But fandom couldn’t protect its bottom line. The brand, part of the Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) group bought by Tata Motors in 2008, has for the best part of a decade been struggling to compete against European automakers with much larger manufacturing efficiencies such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz. Five of Jaguar’s cars were delivering close to zero profitability last year, the company said. Moving upmarket may help not only profits but could go some way to future-proofing the brand. The global market for vehicles priced at $80,000 or more will grow between 8% and 14% each year through 2031, according to consulting giant McKinsey & Company, compared with a relatively flat market for nonluxury cars. Other automakers have had a similar idea. Toyota in 2023 introduced a $170,000 SUV, while Cadillac in June began delivering its $340,000 Celestiq model. Car fanatics and analysts say Jaguar’s success will only become clear after the real Type 00 cars come off the production line, likely next year. | The Wall Street Journal ($)The Corporate Saga Behind Jeep’s Downfall: An iconic brand mismanaged by a French-Italian-American auto conglomerate, a profit-obsessed CEO and a billionaire dynasty. And that was before Stellantis collided with Trump’s trade war. | Bloomberg ($)

Glenn Mercer notes that approximately thirty million vehicle insurance policies in the USA are usage-based insurance (UBI), amounting to probably 10-15% of all drivers, and significantly more if we count only “active” drivers. | Glenn Mercer

For more than a century, Americans have built their lives around the automobile. In many households, the car is not just transportation but is the centerpiece of identity, freedom, and even wealth. In some cases, families even own vehicles worth more than their homes, or multiple cars when they can barely afford one. That culture of ownership is deeply rooted — and it matters profoundly when we think about the future of automated driving. For years, headlines promised a coming age of robo-taxis: fleets of driverless vehicles zipping through cities, freeing us from the costs and hassles of ownership. Billions were invested, prototypes paraded, and visions of steering-wheel-free commutes filled glossy presentations. Yet here we are, more than a decade after Google’s moonshot announcement, and the dream — while closer than ever — may realistically have limited reach. | Junko Yoshida

In one not-so-scientific survey NPR conducted at an intersection near its bureau in Mumbai at 3 p.m. one day in August, there were 27 honks in just one minute. Under Indian laws, police can penalize drivers up to $25 for honking too much or without reason. A 2019 study found that the average noise in Mumbai is often more than 80 decibels — rivaling some of the busiest streets of Manhattan. That's like listening to a vacuum cleaner day and night — but louder. The World Health Organization recommends that it should not exceed 55 decibels. Traffic is among the biggest culprits, as it is in most international cities. But in India, there's another dimension to this problem. When vehicles don't move, drivers honk more. This noise blends with that coming from road, railway, bridge and housing construction projects, which often go on day and night in Mumbai, year-round. In a city of 20 million people, where most sidewalks are dilapidated, getting stuck in slow-moving traffic can sound as loud as a rock concert. | NPR

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EVs

Volvo Cars CEO Håkan Samuelsson says some western brands will not survive the EV shift: "The industry will be electric — there is no turning back. It may take a bit longer in some regions, but the direction is clear. In (about) 10 years, cars will all be electric and they will be lower cost. There will be new dominant players, exactly as Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Toyota Motor Corporation and Volkswagen were in the old world. In the new world, there will be two or three very strong Chinese brands. That makes the room for the old ones tougher. So, this will trigger a (wave of) restructuring. Some companies will adapt to new circumstances and survive. Others will not." | Automotive News ($)

Over the past two months consumers have flocked to dealers around the country, rushing to buy electric cars before a federal $7,500 tax credit comes to an end on Sept. 30. In July, dealers and automakers sold 130,000 electric cars, the second-highest total on record in the United States. In August, EVs were expected to reach an all-time high, with 12% of all new cars sold being electric. Prices are also falling — in July, the average transaction price for an electric car was $55,700, just $7,600 more than the average gas car. But analysts say that the EV-buying frenzy is likely to be short-lived — and that it’s a rough road ahead for fully electric vehicles in the United States. The current boom, they argue, is the last gasp of a surge in EV sales, which are probably facing a long plateau. | The Washington Post ($)

Battery electric vehicles are expected to exceed half of new light vehicle sales in Europe by 2032 and overtake sales of hybrids after 2030, according to an EY report. While European brands have been slower to produce affordable electric models, EY’s study forecasts that BEVs will account for nearly all new car sales in Europe by 2050. | Automotive News ($)

The immigration raid last week on an electric vehicle battery plant in Georgia owned by two South Korean manufacturers was yet another setback for what had been a fast-growing industry in the United States. The sector was already beleaguered by lower-than-expected demand for electric vehicles, tariffs on raw materials and the rapid phaseout of a federal tax credit for purchases of E.V.s, which have led companies to delay or scale back production. But the raid at the plant under construction in Ellabell, Ga., which is owned by the carmaker Hyundai Motor Company and battery supplier LG Energy Solution, raised more risks for foreign manufacturers in the United States. Immigration officials arrested 475 people. Of them, about 300 were South Korean citizens, according to the South Korean foreign minister’s office. It is not yet clear how many of those detained by ICE last week were building the plant and how many were workers brought in to install and calibrate specialized equipment, or to train the local workforce. | The New York Times ($)EVs once promised to turn down the volume on traffic. Now they are introducing a new cacophony to the urban streetscape. Sports car makers are rolling out EVs that are designed to be just as noisy as the big engines their customers know and love. Makers of these cars say the roar and rumble are central to their identities and appeal. Others have enlisted Hollywood composers and musicians to enliven their EVs and hybrids with futuristic hums. The debate about what an electric performance car should sound like is about to get noisier: In October, Ferrari will give fans and investors their first glimpses of its first electric model. The Italian company has become Europe’s most valuable carmaker by selling loud sports cars for hundreds of thousands of dollars. So far, it has said only that the EV won’t be silent. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Shell has developed a new bit of tech that could help electric cars charge in 10 minutes. It’s working with UK engineering and motorsport outfit RML Group to fill the tiny gaps, apertures and cavities in a small 34kWh battery with proprietary ‘gas-to-liquid’ thermal fluid that keeps the cells cool enough so they can cope with a super high flow of electricity. Shell believes a battery with this fluid can be recharged from 10% to 80% in under 10 minutes. And if this battery and special fluid combo is slotted into a “carefully designed lightweight and aerodynamic car operating with an economy of 10km/kWh”, it also believes 24km of range can be added every minute. | BBC Top Gear

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China

The U.S. auto industry, including the Detroit 3 as well as foreign automakers who sell or operate factories here, have been operating in a relatively safe protectionist environment where they haven’t yet had to compete head-to-head with low-cost Chinese vehicles. But that won’t last. | Automotive News ($)

Global automakers need Chinese technology to leapfrog development hurdles and launch new EVs quickly. Meanwhile, Chinese companies desperately need additional revenue amid a bruising price war at home and intensifying trade war abroad. This new strategy resembles the "Intel Inside" campaign of the 1990s - where U.S. chipmaker Intel used state-of-the-art components to transform computers into premium products. In this case, Chinese automakers sell EV technology in a box: the underpinnings for ready-to-build, white label battery-powered cars suitable even for low-volume manufacturers with small budgets. Using a ready-made Chinese EV chassis and software could save billions of dollars and years of development time and help traditional automakers catch up with Chinese rivals, auto industry experts say. | Reuters ($)Michael Dunne from Dunne Insights reporting from IAA MOBILITY 2025 in Munich: In the good old days, automakers chose speed or scale to separate themselves from the pack. General Motors and Volkswagen dominated the market with their size. Honda and Mazda beat you with agility. Never had the industry faced a competitor that was both George Foreman and Sugar Ray Leonard. Never, that is, until now.China brings both. Standing in the giant halls of IAA Mobility 2025 in Munich last week, it hit me: this match may be over before it even begins. | Dunne Insights

Since the beginning of the industrial age, the global economy has required more and more fossil fuels — coal, oil and gas — to power growth. It is increasingly clear, however, that China’s aggressive efforts to sell batteries, solar panels and wind turbines to the world is on course to bring that era to an end, a new report says. The Chinese dominance of clean-energy industries is “creating the conditions for a decline in fossil fuel use,” according to a report by Ember, a research group focused on the prospects for clean-energy technologies. | The New York Times ($)

Mexico will raise tariffs on automobiles from China and other Asian countries to 50%, in a broad overhaul of import levies the government said would protect jobs and analysts said was aimed at placating the United States. The Economy Ministry said the moves, which will increase tariffs to varying degrees on goods across multiple sectors including textiles, steel and automotive, would impact $52 billion of imports. | Reuters ($)

Mexico’s plan to levy tariffs of up to 50% on vehicles from China may not unduly impact the Asian nation’s auto manufacturers whose inherently lower production costs mean their cars are still competitive. BYD, the world’s biggest maker of electric cars based in Shenzhen, China, sells the Dolphin Mini, a small hatchback that’s imported from China, in Mexico for around 399,800 pesos ($21,500), for example. General Motors’ Equinox, one of the least expensive electric cars available in the country from a legacy brand, starts from about 876,990 pesos. While BYD put plans to build its own manufacturing plant in Mexico on hold indefinitely due to geopolitical issues and trade tensions with the U.S., the supply chain efficiencies and cheaper labor and materials it and other Chinese carmakers enjoy at home mean they can still sell vehicles overseas at attractive prices. | Automotive News ($)

Chinese automakers are imitating not to flatter but to profit. Companies such as Chery, Xiaomi, and Zeekr appear to be drawing heavily from premium Western car designs, banking on familiar aesthetics to attract buyers while keeping prices low. This strategy seems to have found success partly because legal enforcement can be challenging and consumers appear receptive to similar premium-inspired styling. | Rest of WorldChinese vacuum-maker Dreame Technology has unveiled the first render images of its inaugural vehicle, an ultra-luxury pure electric model poised to challenge the likes of Bugatti. The renders were shared by Dreame Technology founder Yu Hao on his social media, with a physical prototype slated for a global debut at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in the United States later this year.The newly released renders showcase a design that reportedly draws inspiration from the iconic Bugatti Chiron, according to Chinese auto media Dongchedi. | Car News China

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Autonomy, Robotics & AI

Volkswagen will invest up to 1 billion euros ($1.18 billion) to expand its artificial intelligence capabilities by 2030 as it bets on the technology to speed up the rollout of vehicles and innovation while increasing efficiency. The German auto group said Tuesday that the investment will focus on AI-supported vehicle development, industrial applications, and the expansion of high-performance information-technology infrastructure. Volkswagen said that by integrating AI across its entire auto business, it could save up to 4 billion euros by 2035 through efficiency gains and cost-avoidance opportunities. The carmaker currently uses more than 1,200 AI applications throughout the group, with several hundred more in development or nearing implementation. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

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Marine

China is on the verge of becoming a world-class submarine power, with new technology and a bigger, better fleet that is gaining on the U.S. and its allies—spurring a new undersea arms race in the Pacific. Rapid improvements are making Beijing’s underwater navy quieter and faster, capable of carrying more advanced weapons and better sensors and able to remain submerged for longer. At the same time, Beijing’s military has extended its reach deeper into the Pacific, confronting rivals in the South China Sea and performing blockade and invasion drills around Taiwan, where a conflict could demand a greater role for submarines than at any time since World War II. That is pushing the U.S.—which stations about 60% of its worldwide submarine force in the Indo-Pacific—and its allies to bulk up their own underwater fleets. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

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Aviation & Space

Elon Musk has disrupted one industry after another, from space rockets and electric vehicles to humanoid robots. His latest target: the stodgy club of mobile networks. The announcement this week that Musk’s SpaceX is purchasing $17 billion in wireless spectrum has sent jitters through an industry now eyeing the prospect of Elon-style disruptions to a market long dominated by Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile. The new bandwidth is destined for use by SpaceX’s satellite service, Starlink. Starlink’s entry into the sector is likely to put new pressure on major U.S. mobile carriers to deliver better service to rural customers, analysts say, whether through a tie-up with Starlink or a competing technology. While companies including Apple and T-Mobile have rolled out satellite text messaging in remote areas, largely for emergency situations, Starlink is promising streaming videos at the ends of the Earth in a couple of years’ time. | The Washington Post ($)

The US Navy has awarded contracts to four major aerospace prime contractors — Anduril, Northrop Grumman, Boeing and General Atomics — for “conceptual designs” for a carrier-based autonomous combat drone, according to a Navy document obtained by Breaking Defense. Additionally, Lockheed Martin is under contract for the drone’s “common control,” according to a slide on Collaborative Combat Aircraft from the Navy’s program executive office for unmanned aviation and strike weapons, dated Aug. 20. The contract awards, which previously were not publicly known, are the clearest sign that the Navy is moving forward with the concept of a “loyal wingman” aircraft that can operate from the deck of a carrier. Both the Navy and Air Force have pursued the concept of CCAs, but while the Air Force put its program in the spotlight, the sea service’s own efforts have been largely shrouded in secrecy. | Breaking Defense

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Defense

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the two sides’ tank divisions looked much as they did during the Cold War. Now, Russia’s and Ukraine’s Soviet-era tanks rumble across the battlefield covered in anti-drone nets and spikes, dangling chains and unwieldy cages. The exterior transformations of these hulking vehicles are a testament to how quickly drones have changed the war in Ukraine in just over three years. Lethal drones have pushed traditional missiles and artillery to the sidelines. | The New York Times ($)

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Investing

Startup graduation rates from Seed to Series A. | Carta

Startup graduation rates from Series A to Series B. | Carta

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1964 Porsche 904 Carrera GTS. | Bring A Trailer

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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📺 In The News

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Steve caught up with Chloe Beaver from The Dallas Morning News to discuss the EV market. | Dallas Morning News ($)

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David Spisak's Disruptive Growth Solutions had SellMyRide on his show. | Disruptive Growth Solutions

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Dom Pope and Chip Perry from SellMyRide® were featured on Automotive News' "Daily Drive" segment with C.J. Moore. | Automotive News ($)

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Very exciting news from Automotive Ventures portfolio company Go Eve. | Go Eve

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Thanks to Mark Hollmer at Automotive News for covering Automotive Ventures' portfolio company RockED and their new partnership with Impel. | Automotive News ($)

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Thanks to Autobody News for the great coverage of Automotive Ventures portfolio company Kinetic. | Autobody News

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we juxtapose recent compensation news from Mary Barra at General Motors and Elon Musk at Tesla. | CBT News ($)

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