Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | Sep 22 2025 | VIEW ONLINE

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Automotive

The red, rubbery snowman shape may appear unfamiliar to many of you, but there are two types of people for whom it is instantly recognizable: dog owners, and Volkswagen Bus owners. It is the Kong chew toy, a classic beloved by pooches and their owners since 1976. Known for its unpredictable bounce, nearly indestructible construction, and hollow core for hiding treats, the Kong performs like it was invented by an obsessed genius in some corporate laboratory specifically to meet the particular needs of the canine mind. Except, it wasn’t. The original was invented by the Volkswagen Group. And it wasn’t meant for dogs at all. | Why Is This Interesting?Some automakers have stepped back from the agency direct-sales model, but BMW Group says it is committed to rolling it out in Europe for its core BMW brand in 2027 after putting agency in place at its sporty MINI brand. “We’re honestly even more convinced than before that that is the right approach,” Jochen Goller, head of customer, brands and sales at BMW Group, said in an interview at the IAA auto show in Munich last week. He said the agency introduction at BMW would take a phased approach, as it has at Mini. BMW began the switch to the agency model at Mini last year. Italy, Poland and Sweden switched on Jan. 1, 2024, followed by other countries, including Germany, on Oct. 1, 2024. There are now 23 Mini markets using agency, Goller said. Initial obstacles arising from having to merge hundreds of systems and train a whole dealer organization have now been cleared, he said. “By now, the end-to-end process is working, all the way from lead generation to handover, and the feedback is extremely positive,” Goller said. Customers appreciate the harmonized pricing, he added. | Automotive News ($)Automakers have been absorbing billions in added expenses since U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect in April, sparing American car shoppers from sticker shock. So far. Car prices were supposed to have bolted higher by now, auto executives and analysts predicted. But that has not happened, mirroring some other industries where companies have decided to eat added expenses rather than passing them on to consumers. The average manufacturer’s suggested retail price, or MSRP, on new vehicles in the U.S. rose less than 1% from mid-March to mid-August, according to car-shopping site Edmunds. That restraint from the automakers has carried into this autumn, as car brands are implementing only modest price increases as they roll out their 2026 model-year lineups. Car brands tacked on 3.3% to their average sticker prices in August, according to Cox Automotive Inc., up from last year's increase, but in line with historical averages. But now that it appears many of Trump’s tariffs are likely to stick, carmakers are under growing pressure to raise prices, analysts and dealers said. | Reuters ($)Volkswagen Group said it will take a €5.1 billion ($6 billion) hit due to a far-reaching product overhaul at its Porsche AG sports-car division. The move, announced Sept. 19, comes after Porsche AG, which is 75.4 percent-owned by VW Group, said it would significantly tweak its product strategy to reflect a slower-than-expected electric vehicle market. The change in strategy is expected to reduce Porsche’s operating profit by up to €1.8 billion this year. Oliver Blume, who serves as CEO of both Porsche and VW Group, said Porsche is facing years of margin pressure as the automaker changes its mid-term product strategy in favor of combustion engine models. Blume said the restructuring would be a “tough and long road” for the company. | Automotive News ($)Joe White observes that the intent of Mexico’s proposal to impose 50% tariffs on vehicles imported from China, India and South Korea (up from 15% today), is to drastically curtail Chinese and Korean vehicle imports into Mexico. Unfortunately, General Motors de México imports 77% of their overall sales volume from the three countries most affected by the proposed tariffs. Their China sourcing was a competitive advantage. It will now become a competitive albatross. While the final wording is under review, it is highly unlikely that the largest importer of Chinese vehicles, General Motors, will be handed an exemption---unless GM adds new capacity. | Joe WhiteAt least 20% of automotive suppliers are in financial distress and their leaders are more pessimistic about business conditions than they have been in years, two recent studies show. An analysis of the automotive supply chain by financial analytics firm RapidRatings found that about 1 in 5 automotive suppliers were already in financial distress before the impact of tariffs began to be felt. It also found that tariffs as they stand could lead to a 23% increase in the number of distressed suppliers. The past five years were extraordinarily difficult for the supply base, RapidRatings CEO Charlie Minutella said. COVID factory shutdowns in 2020 followed by inflation, supply constraints and higher interest rates have strained many suppliers’ finances, he said. | Automotive News ($)The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) will further strengthen the qualifications for its Top Safety Pick+ awards in 2027 by requiring winners to have an intelligent speed assistance (ISA) device that detects when drivers exceed the speed limit and issues warnings. It is also planning to require award winners to have impairment detection devices by 2030 or sooner, which will monitor driver intoxication and impairment and prevent anyone with a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.08% or higher from driving. Time will tell if automakers decide to produce new vehicles with these features in order to receive meet IIHS Top Safety Pick+ requirements. | JalopnikUnder CEO Elon Musk, Tesla has built its reputation — and much of its trillion-dollar market value — on pathbreaking design, engineering excellence and an exceptional safety record. The company posted recently on X: “If you love them, put them in a Tesla.” But whereas Teslas fare well in government-administered crash tests, certain hallmarks of its vehicles — flush door handles, electrical power, mechanical releases — are flummoxing occupants and first responders. This can turn moments after crashes into deadly races against time. Authorities have been slow to catch up. In China, a top regulator is reportedly considering a ban on fully concealed door handles. Europe has taken incremental measures to improve post-crash rescue and extrication protocols. In the US, there’s been little action, although the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA told Bloomberg News it’s aware of the incidents in this article, as well as complaints about Tesla’s doors that have piled up in the federal agency’s database. Part of the problem: Crash tests are designed to measure impact survivability, not whether occupants can quickly get out of the vehicle afterward. | Bloomberg ($)Two recent fatal accidents involving Chinese-made air bag parts are renewing warnings from regulators over counterfeit components that can explode during a crash. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said it is looking into seven incidents, including five fatalities, involving aftermarket air-bag parts that failed and ruptured during collisions. | The Wall Street Journal ($)A 2024 study by researchers at SINTEF, a Norwegian contract-research organization, used gaze-tracking cameras to compare how long drivers were distracted while performing different tasks on a touchscreen. Even the quickest job—changing the temperature—meant three and a half seconds, on average, of not looking at the road. Finding a new radio station took 11 seconds, and putting a new address into the satnav took 16. An analysis published in 2020 by the Transport Research Laboratory, a British organization, found that touchscreens impaired a driver’s reaction time more than driving over the legal alcohol limit. | The Economist ($)

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EVs

Scientists have used a neat chemistry trick to tackle a major challenge facing future batteries. Their breakthrough paves the way for next-generation electric vehicle (EV) batteries capable of powering 500-mile (800-kilometer) journeys on a single, 12-minute charge. Lithium-metal batteries differ from standard lithium-ion batteries in that the graphite anode is replaced with lithium metal. These designs offer much higher energy density, the researchers said in a statement. For EV drivers, this means batteries that charge faster and go farther. But scientists have been unable to build effective lithium-metal batteries due to "dendrites" — a branching, crystalline substance that grows on the anode during charging, eroding battery performance over time. This worsens during rapid charging and increases the risk of the battery short-circuiting. But in a new study, published Sept. 3 in the journal Nature Energy, scientists have found a way to suspend dendrite growth. The secret lies in a new type of liquid electrolyte. The "cohesion-inhibiting" liquid electrolyte suppresses dendrite growth, boosting the batteries' rapid-charging capabilities and extending their lifespan to more than 185,000 miles (300,000 km), the researchers said. | Live ScienceExxonMobil said it has invented a new form of graphite that can increase the life of electric vehicle batteries by as much as 30%. “We’ve invented a new carbon molecule that will extend the life of the battery by 30%,” CEO Darren Woods said at the University of Texas at Austin’s Energy Symposium on Sept. 12. It’s a “revolutionary step change in battery performance.” The invention is being tested by several EV manufacturers, Woods said. Used on the anode side of the battery, the synthetic graphite allows for faster charging, a longer lifespan and longer range for electric vehicles. Exxon this week announced the acquisition of several production assets from Chicago-based Superior Graphite, which will enable the company to scale up manufacturing, with a goal of commercial production by 2029. | Transport TopicsNorway is Europe’s largest oil producer outside of Russia, producing the equivalent of two million barrels a day, most of which it sells to its neighbors in Western Europe, according to its ministry of energy. It is also the world’s fourth-largest natural gas exporter, reaching record volumes last year. But Norway is also planning for a future of diminishing petroleum revenue, by investing some of its $1.9 trillion sovereign wealth fund in green energy. More than half of the oil and gas deposits on the Norwegian continental shelf have already been extracted, and without the discovery of new fields, production is expected to begin falling within the next decade. Now it is aggressively pursuing a nationwide electrification campaign as it tries to reach net-zero emissions — most of its domestic electricity is already green, and some of its oil and gas fields are already powered by electricity. The country has made the most gains in the transport sector: Last year, nearly 90% of the new cars sold here were electric, one of the highest adoption rates in the world. By electrifying its transportation system, Norway is able to meet its climate goals with little effect to the oil and gas industry, said Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea, a Nordic bank. | The New York Times ($)

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China

Years of subsidies and other government policies have aimed to make China a global automotive power and the world’s electric-vehicle leader. Domestic automakers have achieved those goals and more – and that’s the problem. China has more domestic brands making more cars than the world’s biggest car market can absorb because the industry is striving to hit production targets influenced by government policy, instead of consumer demand, a Reuters examination has found. That makes turning a profit nearly impossible for almost all automakers here, industry executives say. Chinese electric vehicles start at less than $10,000; in the U.S., automakers offer just a few under $35,000. Most Chinese dealers can’t make money, either, according to an industry survey published last month, because their lots are jammed with excess inventory. Dealers have responded by slashing prices. Some retailers register and insure unsold cars in bulk, a maneuver that allows automakers to record them as sold while helping dealers to qualify for factory rebates and bonuses from manufacturers. Unwanted vehicles get dumped onto gray-market traders like Zcar. Some surface on TikTok-style social-media sites in fire sales. Others are rebranded as "used" – even though their odometers show no mileage – and shipped overseas. Some wind up abandoned in weedy car graveyards. They're feeding each other, reinforcing each other, and that could trap the market in a vicious cycle. These unusual practices are symptoms of a vastly oversupplied market – and point to a potential shakeout mirroring turmoil in China’s property market and solar industry, according to many industry figures and analysts. They stem from government policies that prioritize boosting sales and market share – in service of larger goals for employment and economic growth – over profitability and sustainable competition. Local governments offer cheap land and subsidies to automakers in exchange for production and tax-revenue commitments, multiplying overcapacity across the country. | Reuters ($)The Chinese automotive industry is facing some troubles at home, where a long-running price war, caused by chronic overcapacity, is raging. Its origins lie in the Chinese government’s success in first nurturing its carmakers and then propelling them to the fore of the global industry. The government realized 15 years ago that its companies could not compete with foreign petrol power, but that an EV industry might thrive in a fast-growing home market if primed with enough subsidies and other support. The result was a surge of investment, dozens of new firms and a market where EVs are likely to make up 60% of sales this year. Around 130 domestic automakers now battle for sales, though few make cars in significant numbers. If their factories ran at full tilt for a year they could churn out twice as many cars as there are buyers. The consequence of overcapacity has been a savage price war. The average car price has fallen by 19% over the past two years, to around 165,000 yuan ($23,000), calculates Nomura, a Japanese bank. Some models have seen one-off cuts of around 35%. Although sales are still growing—at a forecast 7% this year, to around 24m vehicles—firms’ profits have dwindled or losses mounted. | The Economist ($)In the age of tariffs, Chinese automakers have been able to increase their share of global sales, now accounting for more than half of the electric-vehicles sold in the world. Companies such as BYD and GEELY have been able to roll out models faster and more cheaply than established rivals, thanks to government subsidies and innovative manufacturing methods. That means a made-in-China EV often costs thousands of dollars less than one developed in the U.S. or Europe, while offering top-end features and long-range battery packs far cheaper than those of competitors. Tariffs have slowed the expansion of Chinese automakers in lucrative markets, including the U.S. and Europe, but their footprint is still growing. | The Wall Street Journal ($)One of the great hopes for more powerful electric vehicle batteries is getting closer to hitting the world’s roads ― at least according to Chinese investors. Solid-state technology, in which some liquid ingredients are replaced by solids, has long been viewed as a leader among the next-generation of batteries that are set to transform the global EV industry. Hopes the timeline for commercialization of solid-state cells is now getting firmer have helped fuel major moves for industry stocks in China, including putting Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited’s Hong Kong-listed shares on track for their highest close since listing in May. The recent surge for the world’s biggest EV battery producer has been part of a “thematic trade” on solid-state optimism after bullish outlooks from equipment makers, as well as growing energy-storage outlay in China, JPMorganChase analysts wrote in a note upgrading the stock. | Automotive News ($)

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Autonomy, Robotics & AI

Junko Yoshida has a great piece on the differing views on the readiness of AI in autonomous vehicle (AV) applications. As one example, she cites Missy Cummings' keynote speech at The Autonomous main event in Vienna this week: She began by praising companies who have made amazing progress with the robotaxi R&D. Had the relevant technologies been left in the military, where they started, these advances would have come more slowly, Cummings observed. Then, she cut to the chase. “The first challenge [of self-driving cars] is a showstopper. You don't want to hear this, but I'm just going to lay it on the line. Everybody here has played around with ChatGPT or some of their large language models, and you see hallucinations. Those aren't hallucinations. Those are statistical inferencing errors. Self-driving cars really hallucinate.” Referring to collisions involving Teslas, in which people have died, she cited phantom braking problems, “They are hallucinations by the computer vision system. They happen with machine learning. They happen with end-to-end learning.” She stressed, “We have no idea —we being people in academia. I do computer vision research. We do not know how to solve this problem. It is a mystery. It is unsolved, and because it's unsolved, we continue to see these accidents.” Cummings also reiterated a few times in her keynote: “Whether we're talking about AI in cars, generative AI, large language models, it doesn't matter. Neural nets do not know anything. They do not understand. They do not think. They do not imagine. They do not reason under uncertainty period. I don't care what anybody is going to tell you, they're not thinking agents.” | Junko YoshidaThrough June 2025, Waymo has driven 96M rider-only miles without a human driver. Their data demonstrates that the Waymo Driver is better than humans at avoiding crashes that result in injuries — both of any severity and specifically serious ones — as well as those that lead to airbag deployments. | WaymoKai Williams looks at every Waymo crash between mid-February and mid-August that was serious enough to cause an injury or trigger an airbag. Waymo’s vehicles were involved in 45 crashes over those six months. A large majority of these crashes were clearly not Waymo’s fault, including 24 crashes where the Waymo wasn’t moving at all and another 7 where the Waymo was rear-ended by another vehicle. None of these crashes were directly related to Waymo’s autonomous driving software. | Understanding AI

🚘 Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Car of the Week": a 1965 Aston Martin DB5 Vantage. | Broad Arrow

Have a great week,Steve Greenfield

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📺 In The News

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Thank you Business Eye Magazine for featuring Hugh Sheehy from Go Eve. | Business Eye

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Go Eve, an Irish/UK EV charging technology company, announced that ‘DockChain,’ its patented “daisy‑chain” DC fast‑charging system, has been certified to UL 2202 (ETL) standard for the North American (US and Canada) market. | University College Dublin

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Automotive Ventures portfolio company sellmyride® was featured on Automotive News. | Automotive News ($)

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The EV Report breaks the news that Go Eve has earned UL 2202 (ETL) certification for the North American market, including the US and Canada. | The EV Report

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Autobody News recaps Steve's recent interview with Cole Strandberg where we discussed the future of collision repair. | Autobody News

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On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we explore a new Boston Consulting Group (BCG) study outlining that established automakers are grappling with a harsh reality: demand for new cars and light trucks is slowing. That slowdown has left them with too much factory capacity, and costs that are simply too high. | CBT News ($)

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